burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Figured we might want to start a thread for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 From FFC ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA... .LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH. GAZ001>009-015-016-120330- /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.120113T0000Z-120113T1200Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- LUMPKIN-WHITE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND 221 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NORTH GEORGIA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE...TO ELLIJAY...TO CLEVELAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. * TIMING...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EVENT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER 7 PM. * IMPACTS...WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN ICY PATCHES ON ROADS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Figured we might want to start a thread for this storm Might want to change the title to "Thursday night/Friday" as I would expect the flakes to be flying Thursday late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Might want to change the title to "Thursday night/Friday" as I would expect the flakes to be flying Thursday late. Done I just like the idea of the storm having a miracle over performance and being known as the ominous "Friday the 13th" storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Done I just like the idea of the storm having a miracle over performance and being known as the ominous "Friday the 13th" storm! I wish it would or could but it looks like just typical wrap around moisture behind a departing low pressure. One thing that is better though is that the 850mb temps are quite cold so 850mb moisture should be plenty to get flakes flying. I think 1-4" looks good for WNC favored upslope areas with less everywhere else in WNC. I think you will hear about somewhere in NGA and TN that eeks out an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll take the flurry for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I wish it would or could but it looks like just typical wrap around moisture behind a departing low pressure. One thing that is better though is that the 850mb temps are quite cold so 850mb moisture should be plenty to get flakes flying. I think 1-4" looks good for WNC favored upslope areas with less everywhere else in WNC. I think you will hear about somewhere in NGA and TN that eeks out an inch. Yea I really wish the NAM didn't get a big dry mass right between the mountains and me which is typical in these type of systems. I would really love to just see a few flakes even if they are just token. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I off work on Friday, hmmmmm................I guess I may be chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest 18z NAM has nice wrap around 850mb moisture with 850 temps plenty cold for flurries and scattered snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Just a few degrees cooler and it might be something at least there is a small chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Just a few degrees cooler and it might be something at least there is a small chance Just from the NAM it looks like a lot of points east of CLT will have a shot at some flurries at the end of the system....but these are notorious for doing nothing once they get past the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Suprised that GSP is not giving this more of a look. They do leave the door open though. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT ON FRIDAY. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH TWO INCHES ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS ON THE TN BORDER. NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...GIVING THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL FURTHER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD ADVECTION BY FRIDAY...RECOVERING TO ONLY AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 FFC AFD: ...AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP NORTH GEORGIA IN A FAVORABLE PRECIP AREA...BUT THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA...WHICH WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE...WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND DUE TO INCONVENIENCES THAT MAY RESULT FROM THIS PRECIP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 00Z TO 12Z FRIDAY. HPC WWD HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS...AND HAVE GENERALLY SIDED MORE TOWARDS THE 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ELEVATED SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I can't believe a new thread has been created for a clipper system that "might" reach Winter Storm criteria in the high country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Suprised that GSP is not giving this more of a look. They do leave the door open though. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT ON FRIDAY. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH TWO INCHES ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS ON THE TN BORDER. NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...GIVING THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL FURTHER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD ADVECTION BY FRIDAY...RECOVERING TO ONLY AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. Raleigh AFD says something about flurries in their update for Thursday night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I can't believe a new thread has been created for a clipper system that "might" reach Winter Storm criteria in the high country. signs of the times my friend! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I cannot believe the NWS has not issued any kind of advisory or storm warning. The last time they lagged back and didn't issue anything was last week when i had about 5 inches and the whole county was coated with snow and school was out for 2 days. Seems like the NWS this season is not keeping up very good with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Raleigh AFD says something about flurries in their update for Thursday night!! Why does rain have no trouble falling during the day, but the one or two times it snows, it must be at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I can't believe a new thread has been created for a clipper system that "might" reach Winter Storm criteria in the high country. It was either that or clutter up other threads. Choose your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Will ATL see flurries? The WSI RPM and NCEP NMM say yes. Regarding the discrepancy between FFC issuing advisories and other offices not, looks like FFC is covering their A$$ since in the actual forecast they are only going maybe an inch at the higher elevations, so while other offices are in the same ballpark amount-wise, they evidently do not think that much is worth a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I can't believe a new thread has been created for a clipper system that "might" reach Winter Storm criteria in the high country. We were discussing anyway this in a LR thread, it needed a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll take the flurry for MBY It even gives mby a snowflake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I cannot believe the NWS has not issued any kind of advisory or storm warning. The last time they lagged back and didn't issue anything was last week when i had about 5 inches and the whole county was coated with snow and school was out for 2 days. Seems like the NWS this season is not keeping up very good with these events. 85, GSP is a great office imo. They are leaving the door open for a later shift to issue a WWA. I know parts of Haywood got WSW snow on the last go around. I am not certian on this and maybe a Met can chime in....They usually don't issue a advisory for one county if surrounding counties don't match up with the criteria. Most of the mountians were under a WWA on the last snow & it matched up well. MRX has issued a WWA for the high country of TN. If RNK does also for the N Mnts. I am sure GSP will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At least it has some color on the map....NWS says an inch in the valley....we'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Token flakes are not to be dismissed this winter! I will take what I can get. It looks like there is a chance east of the foothills/Charlotte area but often the mountains soak it up and only areas north of Winston and Greensboro see the flurries. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 85, GSP is a great office imo. They are leaving the door open for a later shift to issue a WWA. I know parts of Haywood got WSW snow on the last go around. I am not certian on this and maybe a Met can chime in....They usually don't issue a advisory for one county if surrounding counties don't match up with the criteria. Most of the mountians were under a WWA on the last snow & it matched up well. MRX has issued a WWA for the high country of TN If RNK does also for the N Mnts. I am sure GSP will. Ya i no what your saying but seems like the past couple snows have caught people off guard either by our great local mets only giving a 20-30 percent chance of snow to sometimes the NWS issues stuff when the ground is white. I work part time out in public and i hate to see the elderly get caught out in this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ya i no what your saying but seems like the past couple snows have caught people off guard either by our great local mets only giving a 20-30 percent chance of snow to sometimes the NWS issues stuff when the ground is white. I work part time out in public and i hate to see the elderly get caught out in this stuff. I've seen GSP be right more times then they are wrong. In fact last year they nailed pretty much every storm. They are not going issue a WWA or WSW or anything else unless it's warranted and right now it simply is not warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Folks...GSP knows what they're doing. There is no model consensus of a widespread Warning Criteria event for the mountains, therefor they'll wait until morning (after a look at the 0z run) before putting up any advisories or Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Will ATL see flurries? The WSI RPM and NCEP NMM say yes. Regarding the discrepancy between FFC issuing advisories and other offices not, looks like FFC is covering their A$$ since in the actual forecast they are only going maybe an inch at the higher elevations, so while other offices are in the same ballpark amount-wise, they evidently do not think that much is worth a WWA. Yea I think it has more to do with this being so similar to the anafrontal Arctic event we had two years ago back in January 2010. That system was about the same. Brought in some light rain ahead of the front that dropped temps quickly below freezing behind it. That led to some quick flash freezing of the wet roads plus a dusting of snow on top caused some major travel problems here for about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Im under a WWA for 1-3. Rain should to snow pretty quickly around here late Thursday into Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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