Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 It sounds like he doesn't like most mets or JB. Sounds like they are on the same page as the gefs which also looks really warm across the country beyond day 10. he posts here as gibbsfreeenergy.. the energy mets are all punks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean has a terrible pattern through the run. All the cold is on the western side. If it's right January is toast except for occasional transient cold shots. The CFS2 model also really has fe warm and it look to have a positive nao. t will be interesting to hear what the euro weeklies have and whether they show the same look. I'm not ready to write off February but I don't see any favorable pattern change on the horizen before the end of the month. That doesn't mean one can't happen as I'm not taht good but that the present and modeled patterns don't look good. According to Coastal the only half decent good piece of news is week 4 is showing a -NAO and otherwise it is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean has a terrible pattern through the run. All the cold is on the western side. If it's right January is toast except for occasional transient cold shots. The CFS2 model also really has fe warm and it look to have a positive nao. t will be interesting to hear what the euro weeklies have and whether they show the same look. I'm not ready to write off February but I don't see any favorable pattern change on the horizen before the end of the month. That doesn't mean one can't happen as I'm not taht good but that the present and modeled patterns don't look good. You have called for the winter to suck since November and haven't been wrong yet so I'd say you are pretty good at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You have called for the winter to suck since November and haven't been wrong yet so I'd say you are pretty good at this. If only he still got paid for doing this maybe he could treat me to a round of golf in 10 days when it will be 70 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 cshabbott Chris Shabbott European weeklies warmest four weeks I have ever seen. Pattern change is to epically warm. Jan 21-31 warmest on Record possibly Yikes, that Twitter feed really makes him sound like an insecure douche. Those of us who post here already knew that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 According to Coastal the only half decent good piece of news is week 4 is showing a -NAO and otherwise it is brutal. cool so now the pattern change is for mid feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 he posts here as gibbsfreeenergy.. the energy mets are all punks. It's really easy to bash all mets when you don't have to make public forecasts and anything you do say about the weather can be hidden behind a thick layer of "proprietary information" labels. I've never seen that guy do anything but barf back model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 cool so now the pattern change is for mid feb? Exactly, basically it is not happening. I hope atleast we get a Nino next winter or i may need prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's really easy to bash all mets when you don't have to make public forecasts and anything you do say about the weather can be hidden behind a thick layer of "proprietary information" labels. I've never seen that guy do anything but barf back model output. im pretty sure id be an energy met if i was a met. if you have some free time you should go to PR and read the last two pages or so of the NH primary thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Man, if we get another stable vortex over ak, -pna, and +ao/nao to start off Feb then it's probably time to just go ahead and end this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 im pretty sure id be an energy met if i was a met. if you have some free time you should go to PR and read the last two pages or so of the NH primary thread. I like snow forecasting too much to be an energy met though this year at CWG I've felt underused. It's tough being a winterwx expert with no winter anywhere in the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I like snow forecasting too much to be an energy met though this year at CWG I've felt underused. It's tough being a winterwx expert with no winter anywhere in the conus. Time to move to Cordova, AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Time to move to Cordova, AK. Stampede pass WA should do well over the next 2 weeks. They'll be measuring snow in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Stampede pass WA should do well over the next 2 weeks. They'll be measuring snow in feet. If i did not have to work i would definitely road trip, no snow at all makes me grumpy. Atleast the Ravens are doing great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Man, if we get another stable vortex over ak, -pna, and +ao/nao to start off Feb then it's probably time to just go ahead and end this winter. We'll get the good pattern in March with just enough time to tease us with the promise of late-season magic that ends up failing. I think a SNE blizzard around March 15th that gives us cold rain and then a dry slot would be a perfectly fitting end to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Man, if we get another stable vortex over ak, -pna, and +ao/nao to start off Feb then it's probably time to just go ahead and end this winter admit winter never started around here. FYP... worst part of this whole thing is that now Ji already inflated sense of self is likely to only get worse since he can just tell everyone he was the first to cancel the '11-'12 winter sometime in February of 2011 and was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We'll get the good pattern in March with just enough time to tease us with the promise of late-season magic that ends up failing. I think a SNE blizzard around March 15th that gives us cold rain and then a dry slot would be a perfectly fitting end to the season. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 some things never change 24 hr qpf off the 0Z NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F13%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=024&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Been on these boards for 11 years now with the same avatar, save for a few days for holidays, etc. I'm changing my avatar to join the dark side. It goes back to Ludwig if we get 2" of snow or the first day of spring....whichever comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 How much did we have in 01-02 and 06-07 at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 How much did we have in 01-02 and 06-07 at this time? 01-02 was way better. SE va had a 12-14 inch snowstorm then we got 2-4 inches a week later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 01-02 was way better. SE va had a 12-14 inch snowstorm then we got 2-4 inches a week later Yeah but on 1/12 the DC area still had nothing. 2004-2005 was also almost snowless at this point I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Been on these boards for 11 years now with the same avatar, save for a few days for holidays, etc. I'm changing my avatar to join the dark side. It goes back to Ludwig if we get 2" of snow or the first day of spring....whichever comes first. I've never been able to figure out how to create an avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I've never been able to figure out how to create an avatar. Just find a picture of a sad face and upload it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Been on these boards for 11 years now with the same avatar, save for a few days for holidays, etc. I'm changing my avatar to join the dark side. It goes back to Ludwig if we get 2" of snow or the first day of spring....whichever comes first. Watch out, it chops off the left and right sides of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just find a picture of a sad face and upload it I tried and for some reason the pictures won't upload into the space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yeah but on 1/12 the DC area still had nothing. 2004-2005 was also almost snowless at this point I believe. For DCA in the previous 10 seasons: 01/02, 04/05, 06/07, 08/09 had less snow than this season up to this date. Four out of ten.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 For DCA in the previous 10 seasons: 01/02, 04/05, 06/07, 08/09 had less snow than this season up to this date. Four out of ten.. conclusion: DC is not a snow town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 For DCA in the previous 10 seasons: 01/02, 04/05, 06/07, 08/09 had less snow than this season up to this date. Four out of ten.. Wow so we're are close to a normal winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 My friend just snapped this in the Bucktown/Wicker Park neighborhood of Chicago.....she has about 4" and -SN should continue much of the night....That is all I want....a 4" snowstorm to blanket the landscape and a few days to walk around in it before it melts....That is not asking too much....This winter sucks ass agreed this is just sad at this point. same crap since Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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