Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 i cant believe our first storm after the "pattern change" is going to be a 50 degree rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 the clipper next weekend (not this weekend) Friday is a bit further south but still to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the clipper next weekend (not this weekend) is a bit further south but still to our north hopefully the day 8/9 blizzard is still there. I think Euro is worse than GFS past day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 its quite a bit warmer for the end of the run storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the clipper next weekend (not this weekend) Friday is a bit further south but still to our north it will trend south to enough to give us snow in the next 2 days and then as we get excited..it will vanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 went from snow and like -4 850s to a low in WV and +8c 850s for d 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 i cant believe our first storm after the "pattern change" is going to be a 50 degree rainstorm What pattern change?? Sarcasm or serious?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 awful run.. tho there might be a heatwave building in tx at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Take a road trip, dudes? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 156 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 MDZ501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-130300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.120113T0400Z-120113T2300Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...BAYARD... MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE 156 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW... IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. * WINDS...WESTERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * IMPACTS...NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW SQUALLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND IN ADDITION TO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. && $$ KRAMAR/LASORSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 awful run.. tho there might be a heatwave building in tx at the end The PV will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 The PV will save us. there's been a fair amount of movement at the long range other than the idea most of the country remains warm. the -nao signal is much depleted if not totally gone this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Man, I hope the euro isn't right in the lr. Almost no amplitude at all. Zonal flow from the pac almost as straight as I-70 in Kansas from coast to coast. Captial P Capital U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 January was already a massive win for the CFS, but this would clinch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 is that the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 is that the euro? Yeah. D10 from Raleigh's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 January was already a massive win for the CFS, but this would clinch it you forgot December and we can probably count on FEB as a torch too per CFS d@mn sun, just like 01/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I was thinking on writing a poem about the 18Z NAM run I'm not certain exactly how it will read, but I've got the title down "Death of a Clipper" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I was thinking on writing a poem about the 18Z NAM run I'm not certain exactly how it will read, but I've got the title down "Death of a Clipper" I don't know. I thought it actually looked a little better. It's starting to "point" at us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean has a terrible pattern through the run. All the cold is on the western side. If it's right January is toast except for occasional transient cold shots. The CFS2 model also really has fe warm and it look to have a positive nao. t will be interesting to hear what the euro weeklies have and whether they show the same look. I'm not ready to write off February but I don't see any favorable pattern change on the horizen before the end of the month. That doesn't mean one can't happen as I'm not taht good but that the present and modeled patterns don't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 cshabbott Chris Shabbott European weeklies warmest four weeks I have ever seen. Pattern change is to epically warm. Jan 21-31 warmest on Record possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 cshabbott Chris Shabbott European weeklies warmest four weeks I have ever seen. Pattern change is to epically warm. Jan 21-31 warmest on Record possibly It sounds like he doesn't like most mets or JB. Sounds like they are on the same page as the gefs which also looks really warm across the country beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 It sounds like he doesn't like most mets or JB. Sounds like they are on the same page as the gefs which also looks really warm across the country beyond day 10. he posts here as gibbsfreeenergy.. the energy mets are all punks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean has a terrible pattern through the run. All the cold is on the western side. If it's right January is toast except for occasional transient cold shots. The CFS2 model also really has fe warm and it look to have a positive nao. t will be interesting to hear what the euro weeklies have and whether they show the same look. I'm not ready to write off February but I don't see any favorable pattern change on the horizen before the end of the month. That doesn't mean one can't happen as I'm not taht good but that the present and modeled patterns don't look good. According to Coastal the only half decent good piece of news is week 4 is showing a -NAO and otherwise it is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 18Z gefs ensemble mean has a terrible pattern through the run. All the cold is on the western side. If it's right January is toast except for occasional transient cold shots. The CFS2 model also really has fe warm and it look to have a positive nao. t will be interesting to hear what the euro weeklies have and whether they show the same look. I'm not ready to write off February but I don't see any favorable pattern change on the horizen before the end of the month. That doesn't mean one can't happen as I'm not taht good but that the present and modeled patterns don't look good. You have called for the winter to suck since November and haven't been wrong yet so I'd say you are pretty good at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You have called for the winter to suck since November and haven't been wrong yet so I'd say you are pretty good at this. If only he still got paid for doing this maybe he could treat me to a round of golf in 10 days when it will be 70 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 cshabbott Chris Shabbott European weeklies warmest four weeks I have ever seen. Pattern change is to epically warm. Jan 21-31 warmest on Record possibly Yikes, that Twitter feed really makes him sound like an insecure douche. Those of us who post here already knew that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 According to Coastal the only half decent good piece of news is week 4 is showing a -NAO and otherwise it is brutal. cool so now the pattern change is for mid feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 he posts here as gibbsfreeenergy.. the energy mets are all punks. It's really easy to bash all mets when you don't have to make public forecasts and anything you do say about the weather can be hidden behind a thick layer of "proprietary information" labels. I've never seen that guy do anything but barf back model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 cool so now the pattern change is for mid feb? Exactly, basically it is not happening. I hope atleast we get a Nino next winter or i may need prozac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's really easy to bash all mets when you don't have to make public forecasts and anything you do say about the weather can be hidden behind a thick layer of "proprietary information" labels. I've never seen that guy do anything but barf back model output. im pretty sure id be an energy met if i was a met. if you have some free time you should go to PR and read the last two pages or so of the NH primary thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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