FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 This putting off ""getting things going"" is old and probably not going to work. Im for early spring , winrer has dissappointed. Let it go. Continued cold eith no snow is boring. Storm tracks dont favor us this year. Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Sunny and mid-50s on Saturday. Good for some golf this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sunny and mid-50s on Saturday. Good for some golf this weekend. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. most of thoe decent FEBs have been NINOs or neutrals with 2/96 being the glaring "recent" exception 71/72 we had didly until 2/72, so there's one other, but don't hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. I understand and at least partly agree with your thinking. Optimism is always preferred. It would be nice to get another mild event, although thec possibility seems. To go down the longer it is delayed.Im for warmer weather not necessarily severe. My heating has neen very low this year so were almost done with the cold. Good comment on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Awesome My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 SPC taking their thoughts for tonight and extending it into tomorrow morning: ...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG 60+ KT SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILT UPPER TOUGH. A RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES OVER THE SERN STATES AND THE GULF STREAM AREA SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN AL THROUGH SRN SC. THE LLJ WILL TRANSPORT THIS RICHER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. BANDS OF RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE DEEPER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE MOIST PROFILES AND A WEAK CAP. LATEST WRF-NMM4 SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS THE ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT MOVES INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY WHICH COULD INDEED SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ WITHIN 1 KM OF THE SURFACE...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Amen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 12z models have improved the lapse rates ahead of the main line for early tomorrow... NAM for Richmond: GFS is similar, but has a more stable surface layer. ...wouldn't take much to mix those 50 kt. winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 FYI: BWI is +9 so far this week (not a major torch...but still) Monday: +5 Tuesday: +14 Wednesday: +8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Many robins around our area don't migrate anymore. It's a bit of an anachronism to say robins are a sign of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Many robins around our area don't migrate anymore. It's a bit of an anachronism to say robins are a sign of spring. Yeah, I've read that many robins don't migrate, but instead, move around to where food can be found. They migrate because of food, not temperture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We might just get a little snow tomorrow night. Each run of the NAM pushes the measureable precip further over the mtns. and the sim radar as a look much like Jan 7/8 last year had. That one was a quick burst of snow that put down about 1 inch or so across most places. I doubt this one does that, but it might just whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I wouldn't bet on it. Hence the word might, twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We might just get a little snow tomorrow night. Each run of the NAM pushes the measureable precip further over the mtns. and the sim radar as a look much like Jan 7/8 last year had. That one was a quick burst of snow that put down about 1 inch or so across most places. I doubt this one does that, but it might just whiten the ground. File this post under hyper-mega-uber-overly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We might just get a little snow tomorrow night. Each run of the NAM pushes the measureable precip further over the mtns. and the sim radar as a look much like Jan 7/8 last year had. That one was a quick burst of snow that put down about 1 inch or so across most places. I doubt this one does that, but it might just whiten the ground. Sorry, it's all mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Basically Spring has sprung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We might just get a little snow tomorrow night. Each run of the NAM pushes the measureable precip further over the mtns. and the sim radar as a look much like Jan 7/8 last year had. That one was a quick burst of snow that put down about 1 inch or so across most places. I doubt this one does that, but it might just whiten the ground. I wouldn't bet on it. File this post under hyper-mega-uber-overly optimistic. Well........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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