mitchnick Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 when the models are right 4 days out this might matter I can assure you the GFS is right with it because as soon as the pv moves out it warms and rains on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS is gradually caving to the Euro/GGEM idea of partially phasing the southern closed 500 energy with the northern stream vort. Which probably means the Euro will do a 180 and go to the GFS idea. If not, might be time to fork this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 I can assure you the GFS is right with it because as soon as the pv moves out it warms and rains on us Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If not, might be time to fork this one. Yea, probably right. We've been forked all winter and will probably get forked in Feb too. Ah, fork it! Who the fork cares anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yea, probably right. We've been forked all winter and will probably get forked in Feb too. Ah, fork it! Who the fork cares anymore. Fork the forking forkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS ensembles have completely caved to the Euro idea. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw Time for spring Mid-Atl severe thread. Let's just give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Time for spring Mid-Atl severe thread. Let's just give up. You can try. It just gets ignored. Maybe yours will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw What's over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 What's over? the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the weekend event Any thoughts on LES in Western MD the weekend and until Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 just delete the thread and put us all out of our misery maybe then karma will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the gfs and ens have been horrible with the mjo stick with the euro True, GEFS are lower resoloution I believe?? Since December I've been expecting this MJO 'push', based on my solar forcing+internal response hypothesis, and I do think the GEFS will at least be partially right. The trend today is not bad either...I'll bias toward the GEFS for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the weekend event Ah. Was also thinking that might apply to winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Ah. Was also thinking that might apply to winter as well. The models are of little use outside 3-4 days. The pattern is too fast. Hopefully we can time one of these transient PNA spikes at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 You can try. It just gets ignored. Maybe yours will not. I didn't see yours? I know last year in February I started one and it carried us well into the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The models are of little use outside 3-4 days. The pattern is too fast. Hopefully we can time one of these transient PNA spikes at some point. Boy you aren't kidding. LR confidence in very low right now. We can't get the flow to buckle and slow down at all. Makes it fun to some extent. I've only been looking past day 5 for the big features and even those are moving all over the place every 12 hours. One thing that the gfs and euro seem to sorta agree on is a pretty darn big ridge out west at some point during early feb. maybe we can get something in the ns to dig underneath us. psuhoffman redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Boy you aren't kidding. LR confidence in very low right now. We can't get the flow to buckle and slow down at all. Makes it fun to some extent. I've only been looking past day 5 for the big features and even those are moving all over the place every 12 hours. One thing that the gfs and euro seem to sorta agree on is a pretty darn big ridge out west at some point during early feb. maybe we can get something in the ns to dig underneath us. psuhoffman redux? They do, but the ridge is transient. I don't think these pNa spikes when the Epo is positive have any stability. I'd like to see a block somewhere over alaska and/or western Canada. But I don't think the models will be of much use with a minor event outside a few days so we can keep hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 They do, but the ridge is transient. I don't think these pNa spikes when the Epo is positive have any stability. I'd like to see a block somewhere over alaska and/or western Canada. But I don't think the models will be of much use with a minor event outside a few days so we can keep hoping. Matt, Will has a nice thread going in the NE forum. Good read about the PNA and EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 They do, but the ridge is transient. I don't think these pNa spikes when the Epo is positive have any stability. I'd like to see a block somewhere over alaska and/or western Canada. But I don't think the models will be of much use with a minor event outside a few days so we can keep hoping. Agreed, I don't expect any significant ec trough to have staying power past 3 days or so. Even if we did have two minor snow events during early Feb there is probably a 100% chance that there would be a rain event in between. I think the only chance (and probably a slim one at that) for a decent event of 3-6"+ would come from a strong ns 500 vort that follows a day or 2 after a strong cold front or potentially getting lucky with some energy hanging back and riding up along the ec if the trough axis doesn't set up too far east. The proverbial needle threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Yeah and not much to look at in the LR next week. Caveat is that the models have had their issues more than 3 days out so watch next week pop a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah and not much to look at in the LR next week. Caveat is that the models have had their issues more than 3 days out so watch next week pop a bomb. Adam is still tweeting about a temporary pattern change in the East with threats of wintery precip through Feb 10th (after a big ridge builds out west around Feb 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 SPC highlighting a severe threat for southern VA tonight... I think the mid-level lapse rates (and virtually no CAPE) are going to kill most of the severe weather possibilities, but there are some decent dynamics associated with this system. ...CAROLINAS/SRN VA EARLY FRI... MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPR TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD ZONE OF RAPID LOW LVL MOISTENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH 850 MB SSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT REJUVENATION OF EXISTING BANDS OF STORMS CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VLY...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS. VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW/SHEAR SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT OR BOTH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Signs of how bad a pattern this is: 1.) We go through the entire 0z model cycle without a single post in the main January thread -- more than 12 hours without a post 2.) One of the first posts after the lull talks about a slight risk for Southern VA in the latest SPC outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Adam is still tweeting about a temporary pattern change in the East with threats of wintery precip through Feb 10th (after a big ridge builds out west around Feb 5) I hope it pans out but 10-14 day range has not been the models strong suit so far this winter. Lots of flip flopping. Our sigs are a perfect example of that. A W ridge/ E trough is something we havent seen too much of so far so fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, it's starting to feel like the first half of February is being taken off the table, and that we are going to need the second half of February and first half of March to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, it's starting to feel like the first half of February is being taken off the table, and that we are going to need the second half of February and first half of March to get going. This putting off ""getting things going"" is old and probably not going to work. Im for early spring , winrer has dissappointed. Let it go. Continued cold eith no snow is boring. Storm tracks dont favor us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 You'd think we'd at least get a few snow flurries/showers on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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