H2O Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I think it's an argument that can't be resolved. There is little difference between saying something is unlikely or it could happen. From my POV some of the biggest snowhounds that are unhappy and trying to reshape the conversation positive all the time. None of us can make it snow, sadly.. A pressurized hose in a yard notwithstanding. Today isn't a good day for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I've been "cautiously optimistic" about this system given the closed, strong upper-level vort and its consistency in staying to our south. Obviously the biggest issue is timing it with some cold air available to the north, which has been improving over the last couple of days. Chances are still low at this point (around 20-30%?), but it's interesting to watch unfold at this range. it's not optimal of course but getting a solid track in the middle of winter is hard to totally ignore. even the warm runs like 12z euro yesterday which had the 0c 850 in ny still had 850s over us of like +2 or so and decent chill at the surface. it's hard to say we're totally out of it even in that environment let alone the much better one on the gfs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't think our subforum is bad at all really. Annoying sometimes? Sure. I probably contribute to that factor but as a whole we're pretty temepered. We all want it to snow and even if the chances are slim, we'll still root for it. And when the chances are zero we'll b!tch about it. i don't think it's bad.. i just shy away from ideas that one side of the argument should be more accepted than the other. im not sure what yoda was getting at today re the gfs but no need to make it a larger issue than yoda's interpretation of the model and what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 When I see our red-taggers in here, along with Ian, Matt, etc. being at least semi-optimistic about the weekend, it gives me more hope than normal. Like Ian said, we can't make it snow, sadly. Maybe mother nature will do it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it's not optimal of course but getting a solid track in the middle of winter is hard to totally ignore. even the warm runs like 12z euro yesterday which had the 0c 850 in ny still had 850s over us of like +2 or so and decent chill at the surface. it's hard to say we're totally out of it even in that environment let alone the much better one on the gfs today. Exactly. That's what makes it easy to decide not to punt this one. I posted about this earlier. Great track at 850 and 500 in the last week of January. Yea, it can easily be a rainer or a whiff but I just don't remember very many setups like this that have no chance at snow. Bucks climo pretty hard in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 euro's got nothin on saturday again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 nothing on sunday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen. I find it ironic that we're counting on our first "real" threat of the season to NOT phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen. With the difference being that thin, you'd think that we won't know for maybe a couple of days. As far as I can tell, the energy in the northern stream that either will or won't "grab" that southern stream feature is well out over the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I find it ironic that we're counting on our first "real" threat of the season to NOT phase. that should be good news.. things never phase when we need them to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wouldn't it be interezting if we got a weaker version of jan 31 1966 the snowstorm that was not modeled or forecasted, but just happened!!! That was my first real""blizzard"". At 8:00 sat morning the forecast was for sunny skies, col highs in the mid 20's , by 8;30 it had changed to heavy snow warning and by 10:30 it was snowing hard. The storm closed balto for, I think at least two days, mabe more.That year i grad from high schhol. My first memorable snowstorm. Snow flakes came down,at one time at the rate of 4" an hour. It was an incredible experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that should be good news.. things never phase when we need them to. Hence why I'm optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that should be good news.. things never phase when we need them to. I'll laugh if it does phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm more interested in the period than any discrete threat. That doesn't mean we'll get anything in the Saturday-wednesday period. But I don't think the models really have a clue after day 4 or so, so I am skeptical about these breakdowns of the pattern and that our window is only a few days. It's possible we get something minor when the pattern is supposedly "reloading". This waiting game for a good pattern is a fools errand and really no better IMO than "wish casting" a small threat. We may never get a good pattern to lock in all winter. We are going to have to time something and get a little luck and no better time than in our climo's wheelhouse of the next 3 weeks. The pattern is lightning fast now and super changeable. There are cold fronts coming through every 3/4 days. The models are at the lower range of their skill and even the best mid rangers on this board are flummoxed by the next few weeks. I've gotten accumulating snow in the upcoming 3 week period 8 out of the last 9 winters. I have gotten a 3"+ storm 13/13 winters since I moved to DC proper in 1998 and a 4"+ 12/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 euro ensemble mean looks basically like the op.. maybe develops a bit more on sunday for maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!" Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 euro's got nothin on saturday again how can every gfs member have a storm and nothing on euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 how can every gfs member have a storm and nothing on euro? Because one of them is clearly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Because one of them is clearly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Because one of them is clearly wrong. But according to quantum mechanics, they can all be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I find it ironic that we're counting on our first "real" threat of the season to NOT phase. Phases don't often work out here. It isn't that ironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 But according to quantum mechanics, they can all be correct. ...And according to weather mechanics, they're both wrong. Just that one is more wrong than the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 how can every gfs member have a storm and nothing on euro? hmmm, members only I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying. you just seem really sensitive over the issue. or this is some backhanded way of telling people like me not to post. the sun angle/spring stuff was in jest.. i know my climo as well as anyone. it's just as tedious reading "im going with the snowiest model and hopign for the best ****" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 you just seem really sensitive over the issue. or this is some backhanded way of telling people like me not to post. the sun angle/spring stuff was in jest.. i know my climo as well as anyone. it's just as tedious reading "im going with the snowiest model and hopign for the best ****" I just said the same thing Matt said in so many words, yet I'm really sensitive. Alright. Anyway, I hope it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 But according to quantum mechanics, they can all be correct. Damn, now I've got to go to another universe to get snow? Jeezzzz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I just said the same thing Matt said in so many words, yet I'm really sensitive. Alright. Anyway, I hope it snows. I think my response was basically the same if not in the exact same words. Discussion here will never be perfect for any one person. Some disagreement seems better than all of us posting the same thing tho. Plus that leaves room for gloating when one side is right etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 you just seem really sensitive over the issue. or this is some backhanded way of telling people like me not to post. the sun angle/spring stuff was in jest.. i know my climo as well as anyone. it's just as tedious reading "im going with the snowiest model and hopign for the best ****" I don't think there is much wish casting in this forum but maybe I am just ignoring it. I think for the most part there is a good understanding of the challenges we face in getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying. Well stated. There are two camps here. The weenies (like me) enjoying tracking a possible snowstorm and then there are the Mets who do this for a living or "used to". Obviously most of everyone on this forum grew up snow lovers, even the Mets who were smart enough to get their degrees and work at something they really love. That being said, I suppose in the back of the weenie mind we all acknowledge the fact that 98% of possible snowstorms in a La Nina year have no shot of verifying so when cold water (maybe not in a nina year) is thrown on a possibility that shows up on a model in about three minutes after seeing it for the first time on a model, the depression sets in. Unfortunately, there is really nothing that can be done about that, unless the realists give us weenies at least ten minutes of wishful thinking before bringing us back to the doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.