Feb Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The UKMET develops a low on Sunday morning along the Carolina Coast, moving it due north and deepens it to a 969mb north of Maine by Monday morning. For those wanting precip on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 For those wanting precip on Sunday it's a 1016 Low when off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it's a 1016 Low when off the NC coast explosive bombogenesis. it will be sub 980 off the delmarva coast.......1/25/2000 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 explosive bombogenesis. it will be sub 980 off the delmarva coast.......1/25/2000 redux. Wouldn't that be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 At least there is a low to the south. The rest can work itself out. Kinda sums up the winter though. @ hr 96 we have an 850 low over the outer banks and it's going to be tough to snow. I'm guessing here, but I would say 9 times out of 10 when you have an 850 track from GA - OBX - to well off the MD coast in late Jan you would expect it to be snow. Time for climo to help us instead of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Time for climo to help us instead of hurt. we're fighting the winter of 11/12 climo now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The 12z ens mean looks OK for Sat. You just don't know how it is arriving at that mean without seeing the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Time for climo to help us instead of hurt. sun agle is increasing and our avg rounded high is up. spring will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 sun agle is increasing and our avg rounded high is up. spring will be here soon. right from fall to spring I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 right from fall to spring I guess we gotta be put out of our misery at some pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 sun agle is increasing and our avg rounded high is up. spring will be here soon. north/south poles flipping will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The UK's evolution is strange as it is fast bringing the 500 cut off low coming across the south eastward and then northward to our west instead of east and then has an open 500 h trough that it digs south far enough to bring a low northward up the coast. That's a big difference from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 we gotta be put out of our misery at some pt nah, this is the kind of year we get a cool, wet spring to add insult to injury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't understand why you are taking the depiction literally and looking at sfc temps.....but whatever.....THis winter has been a complete stinker and models suck and our climo sucks..not sure why people have to keep pointing out that threats are low probability and unlikely to happen...no sh-it...we know...thanks for pointing out the obvious...without all the negative nancy's, we'd think we were tracking a possible 8-12" SECS every few days...And I am not referring to Wes....That is his "job" and his area of expertise...I don't see the need for so many others to assume that role.... High effing FIVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 BBs snow prediction will save us all, don't worry folks... our 30 inches are coming! Or we can listen to am19psu who has been tweeting the last few days about "Feb 5th as the start of a wintry period in the East, at least relative to the rest of winter" ...though we all know how his torch call worked out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The GEFS ensembles do show a few members giving us snow sat, certainly a more optimistic ens grouping then most this year. I post it for Matt, While none are gungho for the UKmet solution. Some do offer a clipper that forms a wave off the coast at 138hrs or so when there should be plenty of cold air. That's also a time frame worth watching even if it is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 High effing FIVE it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!" flip floppers >>>> negative nancy's >>>> wishful weenies (more annoying to less annoying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ens. members at 12z leave room for reasonable hope. We'll see what the euro says in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 as someone who likes to punt i've not been able to on sat yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!" Wishing is one thing. Being hopeful when there is at least some indication that a good outcome is possible is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ~4 rainers on the Ensembles, ~4 snowers, and ~3 OTS (plus the Op). Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I really think what we're missing this year is JB with his constant claims of cold and snow in the east right around the corner; he certainly kept hope alive even though he busted since he went to wxbell, he doesn't seem to have the presence he had while at Accuwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wishing is one thing. Being hopeful when there is at least some indication that a good outcome is possible is another. I think it's an argument that can't be resolved. There is little difference between saying something is unlikely or it could happen. From my POV some of the biggest snowhounds that are unhappy and trying to reshape the conversation positive all the time. None of us can make it snow, sadly.. A pressurized hose in a yard notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I really think what we're missing this year is JB with his constant claims of cold and snow in the east right around the corner; he certainly kept hope alive even though he busted since he went to wxbell, he doesn't seem to have the presence he had while at Accuwx It has certainly impacted the number of times I've written CWG posts. When he starts hyping, I usually get to do a non hyping column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ~4 rainers on the Ensembles, ~4 snowers, and ~3 OTS (plus the Op). Not bad. Hey, that's not bad at all. As a numbers guy, I'll bet the home team any day with a 40% chance. Maybe a little parlay @ 10-1 for 2 winter events within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 as someone who likes to punt i've not been able to on sat yet I've been "cautiously optimistic" about this system given the closed, strong upper-level vort and its consistency in staying to our south. Obviously the biggest issue is timing it with some cold air available to the north, which has been improving over the last couple of days. Chances are still low at this point (around 20-30%?), but it's interesting to watch unfold at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I really think what we're missing this year is JB with his constant claims of cold and snow in the east right around the corner; he certainly kept hope alive even though he busted since he went to wxbell, he doesn't seem to have the presence he had while at Accuwx He's too busy railing against climate change and how daily global average temperatures are somehow disproving global warming. Oh...and that CO2 is not a well-mixed gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The GEFS ensembles do show a few members giving us snow sat, certainly a more optimistic ens grouping then most this year. I post it for Matt, While none are gungho for the UKmet solution. Some do offer a clipper that forms a wave off the coast at 138hrs or so when there should be plenty of cold air. That's also a time frame worth watching even if it is a long shot. There are few certainies in DC with regards to snowstorms so just seeing that just a few of the ensembles have potential is interesting enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!" I don't think our subforum is bad at all really. Annoying sometimes? Sure. I probably contribute to that factor but as a whole we're pretty temepered. We all want it to snow and even if the chances are slim, we'll still root for it. And when the chances are zero we'll b!tch about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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