Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 What's over? the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the weekend event Any thoughts on LES in Western MD the weekend and until Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the gfs and ens have been horrible with the mjo stick with the euro True, GEFS are lower resoloution I believe?? Since December I've been expecting this MJO 'push', based on my solar forcing+internal response hypothesis, and I do think the GEFS will at least be partially right. The trend today is not bad either...I'll bias toward the GEFS for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the weekend event Ah. Was also thinking that might apply to winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 You can try. It just gets ignored. Maybe yours will not. I didn't see yours? I know last year in February I started one and it carried us well into the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The models are of little use outside 3-4 days. The pattern is too fast. Hopefully we can time one of these transient PNA spikes at some point. Boy you aren't kidding. LR confidence in very low right now. We can't get the flow to buckle and slow down at all. Makes it fun to some extent. I've only been looking past day 5 for the big features and even those are moving all over the place every 12 hours. One thing that the gfs and euro seem to sorta agree on is a pretty darn big ridge out west at some point during early feb. maybe we can get something in the ns to dig underneath us. psuhoffman redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 They do, but the ridge is transient. I don't think these pNa spikes when the Epo is positive have any stability. I'd like to see a block somewhere over alaska and/or western Canada. But I don't think the models will be of much use with a minor event outside a few days so we can keep hoping. Matt, Will has a nice thread going in the NE forum. Good read about the PNA and EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 They do, but the ridge is transient. I don't think these pNa spikes when the Epo is positive have any stability. I'd like to see a block somewhere over alaska and/or western Canada. But I don't think the models will be of much use with a minor event outside a few days so we can keep hoping. Agreed, I don't expect any significant ec trough to have staying power past 3 days or so. Even if we did have two minor snow events during early Feb there is probably a 100% chance that there would be a rain event in between. I think the only chance (and probably a slim one at that) for a decent event of 3-6"+ would come from a strong ns 500 vort that follows a day or 2 after a strong cold front or potentially getting lucky with some energy hanging back and riding up along the ec if the trough axis doesn't set up too far east. The proverbial needle threading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Yeah and not much to look at in the LR next week. Caveat is that the models have had their issues more than 3 days out so watch next week pop a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah and not much to look at in the LR next week. Caveat is that the models have had their issues more than 3 days out so watch next week pop a bomb. Adam is still tweeting about a temporary pattern change in the East with threats of wintery precip through Feb 10th (after a big ridge builds out west around Feb 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 SPC highlighting a severe threat for southern VA tonight... I think the mid-level lapse rates (and virtually no CAPE) are going to kill most of the severe weather possibilities, but there are some decent dynamics associated with this system. ...CAROLINAS/SRN VA EARLY FRI... MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPR TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD ZONE OF RAPID LOW LVL MOISTENING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH 850 MB SSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 60 KTS. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT REJUVENATION OF EXISTING BANDS OF STORMS CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VLY...AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS. VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW/SHEAR SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT OR BOTH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Signs of how bad a pattern this is: 1.) We go through the entire 0z model cycle without a single post in the main January thread -- more than 12 hours without a post 2.) One of the first posts after the lull talks about a slight risk for Southern VA in the latest SPC outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Adam is still tweeting about a temporary pattern change in the East with threats of wintery precip through Feb 10th (after a big ridge builds out west around Feb 5) I hope it pans out but 10-14 day range has not been the models strong suit so far this winter. Lots of flip flopping. Our sigs are a perfect example of that. A W ridge/ E trough is something we havent seen too much of so far so fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, it's starting to feel like the first half of February is being taken off the table, and that we are going to need the second half of February and first half of March to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah, it's starting to feel like the first half of February is being taken off the table, and that we are going to need the second half of February and first half of March to get going. This putting off ""getting things going"" is old and probably not going to work. Im for early spring , winrer has dissappointed. Let it go. Continued cold eith no snow is boring. Storm tracks dont favor us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 You'd think we'd at least get a few snow flurries/showers on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 This putting off ""getting things going"" is old and probably not going to work. Im for early spring , winrer has dissappointed. Let it go. Continued cold eith no snow is boring. Storm tracks dont favor us this year. Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 soooo, weekend storm fail? Sunny and mid-50s on Saturday. Good for some golf this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Sunny and mid-50s on Saturday. Good for some golf this weekend. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. most of thoe decent FEBs have been NINOs or neutrals with 2/96 being the glaring "recent" exception 71/72 we had didly until 2/72, so there's one other, but don't hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Definitely. However, February is historically our best month for snow in our region, so you have to believe (hope?) that we have a shot at something over the next 30 days. Of course, the other side to that coin is that average high temperatures increase from 44 degrees at the start of the month, reaching 50 degrees by the end. Anyway, given how winter has gone to this point, even a moderate 2-3" snow event would be pretty remarkable. I guess we should just go ahead and start looking forward to severe weather season. I understand and at least partly agree with your thinking. Optimism is always preferred. It would be nice to get another mild event, although thec possibility seems. To go down the longer it is delayed.Im for warmer weather not necessarily severe. My heating has neen very low this year so were almost done with the cold. Good comment on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Awesome My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 SPC taking their thoughts for tonight and extending it into tomorrow morning: ...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG 60+ KT SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILT UPPER TOUGH. A RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDES OVER THE SERN STATES AND THE GULF STREAM AREA SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN AL THROUGH SRN SC. THE LLJ WILL TRANSPORT THIS RICHER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. BANDS OF RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE DEEPER ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE MOIST PROFILES AND A WEAK CAP. LATEST WRF-NMM4 SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS THE ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT MOVES INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY WHICH COULD INDEED SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LLJ WITHIN 1 KM OF THE SURFACE...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Amen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 12z models have improved the lapse rates ahead of the main line for early tomorrow... NAM for Richmond: GFS is similar, but has a more stable surface layer. ...wouldn't take much to mix those 50 kt. winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 FYI: BWI is +9 so far this week (not a major torch...but still) Monday: +5 Tuesday: +14 Wednesday: +8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My SIL had a flock of robins singing in her backyard this morning. We have some daffodil shoots popping up here, with a ground that isn't frozen in the least. At this point, bring on spring. Many robins around our area don't migrate anymore. It's a bit of an anachronism to say robins are a sign of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Many robins around our area don't migrate anymore. It's a bit of an anachronism to say robins are a sign of spring. Yeah, I've read that many robins don't migrate, but instead, move around to where food can be found. They migrate because of food, not temperture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We might just get a little snow tomorrow night. Each run of the NAM pushes the measureable precip further over the mtns. and the sim radar as a look much like Jan 7/8 last year had. That one was a quick burst of snow that put down about 1 inch or so across most places. I doubt this one does that, but it might just whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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