mattie g Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro Weenie snowfall map Looks similar to the one we saw about a week ago regarding this weekend's event. Of course, then next run moved that snow blob about 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I didn't see anything particularly interesting on the 12z GFS out to 180. It slid the weekend threat off the coast to our south, and then turns cold and dry. I guess the cold in the 7-10 day prog is of interest, perhaps, on that run, but really no threats to speak of other than maybe a clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The 12z Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I didn't see anything particularly interesting on the 12z GFS out to 180. It slid the weekend threat off the coast to our south, and then turns cold and dry. I guess the cold in the 7-10 day prog is of interest, perhaps, on that run, but really no threats to speak of other than maybe a clipper system. The operational 6z was just about the only run out of the op/ens that had the storm suppressed and running out to sea. The Euro has snow for practically the whole state of Va. It may turn out to be nothing, but it would be pretty hard to say that right now given the number of solutions being thrown out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 the euro event seems pretty unlikely. see if it's on 12z/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The operational 6z was just about the only run out of the op/ens that had the storm suppressed and running out to sea. The Euro has snow for practically the whole state of Va. It may turn out to be nothing, but it would be pretty hard to say that right now given the number of solutions being thrown out there. We can always hope. I was simply noting what I saw on the latest run, but I am not the poster to play why-the-model-run-is-wrong (or right) games. It would be nice if the Euro were onto something, but if I had to guess, I would side with Ian that it goes away with this upcoming run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean has a much more exciting snow scenario for Saturday. I'll take a look at the individual members when they come out, but the mean looks to have a fairly robust Miller A with a rain turning to snow scenario. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 the euro event seems pretty unlikely. see if it's on 12z/ We can always hope. I was simply noting what I saw on the latest run, but I am not the poster to play why-the-model-run-is-wrong (or right) games. It would be nice if the Euro were onto something, but if I had to guess, I would side with Ian that it goes away with this upcoming run. I guess you could make a good argument that snow is always unlikely here. The Euro and GFS both had a storm with potential snow yesterday at 12z. The GFS for some reason has lost the storm for the past three runs, or at least had it scoot straight off of the coast. The interesting part of it is that its own ensembles don't agree with it. In fact many amp it up to the point of it being warm and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean has a much more exciting snow scenario for Saturday. I'll take a look at the individual members when they come out, but the mean looks to have a fairly robust Miller A with a rain turning to snow scenario. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif That's good to hear. They've had a pretty good signal for a while now with regards to this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 I guess you could make a good argument that snow is always unlikely here. The Euro and GFS both had a storm with potential snow yesterday at 12z. The GFS for some reason has lost the storm for the past three runs, or at least had it scoot straight off of the coast. The interesting part of it is that its own ensembles don't agree with it. In fact many amp it up to the point of it being warm and rain. it's not the same storm. the euro is developing a wave on a cold front. the original sat storm is a no go on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 it's not the same storm. the euro is developing a wave on a cold front. the original sat storm is a no go on the euro. Thanks. I have a difficult time with the Euro maps. That site runs a bit slow for me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 it's not the same storm. the euro is developing a wave on a cold front. the original sat storm is a no go on the euro. Maybe GFS picked up on what the Euro lost. Based on trends, the lack of negative NAO and air that has to get cold, I am betting on a rain to snow scenario with just a dusting at best! ALL a gut call at this point - but not overly ecited yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 GFS ens. tracks a low from northern Ala. to eastern NC to Long Island. I'd take that and take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Let's not overlook that this mornings NAM and GFS spit out a bit of snow wed night/thur morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean has a much more exciting snow scenario for Saturday. I'll take a look at the individual members when they come out, but the mean looks to have a fairly robust Miller A with a rain turning to snow scenario. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif Map looks great but man, I have a tough time believing that a true miller A can come to life without a -nao or a decent split flow with a +pna. Let me know if the indv members show split flow or even some stj interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Map looks great but man, I have a tough time believing that a true miller A can come to life without a -nao or a decent split flow with a +pna. Let me know if the indv members show split flow or even some stj interaction. Bob, I've been noticing a decent amount of stj interaction this year as in today's sat pic, but I'm w/you on the skepticism after what we've had so far http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Let's not overlook that this mornings NAM and GFS spit out a bit of snow wed night/thur morn. the sno storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Does this interest you guys? Looks like rain, but it's pretty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Does this interest you guys? Looks like rain, but it's pretty..... not with those temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Map looks great but man, I have a tough time believing that a true miller A can come to life without a -nao or a decent split flow with a +pna. Let me know if the indv members show split flow or even some stj interaction. Here's the 500mb anomaly map for Saturday. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zGFSEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH120.gif Based on the raw math, the NAO is neutral and the PNA is also essentially neutral (transitioning from negative to positive). It's certainly not a 500mb set up that screams KU or anything like that, but that's a decent set up for snow for us (assuming there's already sufficient cold air). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 not with those temps Well at least the NE could possibly get snow out of this, that's good news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 maybe we can nuke the low in the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here's the 500mb anomaly map for Saturday. http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH120.gif Based on the raw math, the NAO is neutral and the PNA is also essentially neutral (transitioning from negative to positive). It's certainly not a 500mb set up that screams KU or anything like that, but that's a decent set up for snow for us (assuming there's already sufficient cold air). That does look pretty nice. Probably won't have a nice hp to the n & w to work with. Stupid gl low appears to want to muck things up. If anything, a weaker low sliding by to the south and off the coast without getting it's act together would be a better scenario. Should be another fun week. Maybe we have back to back events where everything trends in our favor leading up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Change that L over the great lakes into an H and we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro has 1000 mb low off delmarva sat at 18z with no cold air to be found.. precip barely gets to us as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 tho it's a very tight gradient in dc area.. almost nothing nw to 1-2" in se va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 and actually that's 12z not 18z.. sfc temps are potentially not terribly far off but 850s suck. maybe we can get the storm to create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 tho it's a very tight gradient in dc area.. almost nothing nw to 1-2" in se va Well, precip sheild ends up further n&w more often than not. However, if it's rain it can stay down in the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 and actually that's 12z not 18z.. sfc temps are potentially not terribly far off but 850s suck. maybe we can get the storm to create its own cold air. not even close http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 no go on the sunday snow tho i think that might have been there partly since the sat sys was wimped on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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