Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 Frustrating that a model can't seen to hold a nice storm for a run before it pulls it away. Don't even have time to fantasize focus on the good news: 850s are better the storm is "right where we want it" the euro and gfs are closer to aligning early feb could be rockin' -- till we get closer at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Not looking too good. Euro has nothing. GFS still has the tease, but fewer ensemble members look good today. HPC seems to have given in as well wrt the southern energy getting taken out faster. I guess the only positives is that both ens means seem to want to pump up the west coast ridge by day 10. Maybe we'll get lucky in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Here is that 'final push', right on scedule, that could have winter really unloading on us for most of February after the 7th of the month, with another period in March as MJO tries to get back into region 4 after looping from 7-3, before looping back into regions 1-3 again but missing region 8. I feel MJO is progged too slow in week 2 on the GEFS but that the general looks is in the right ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The predicted SNOstorm for 1/24-1/26: What will be right: 1. There will indeed be a strong storm, with heavy precipitation. 2. There will even be some brief snow/sleet at the onset, N&W. 3. IF, the cold air would have been in place, as it should have been we would be having our SECS. What went wrong: 1. Could not overcome this awful pattern. 2. Cold air locked up too far away. 3. La Nina, 2nd year in row, don't bet against it. I'm sorry for no snow...I wanted it as much as you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The predicted SNOstorm for 1/24-1/26: What will be right: 1. There will indeed be a strong storm, with heavy precipitation. 2. There will even be some brief snow/sleet at the onset, N&W. 3. IF, the cold air would have been in place, as it should have been we would be having our SECS. What went wrong: 1. Could not overcome this awful pattern. 2. Cold air locked up too far away. 3. La Nina, 2nd year in row, don't bet against it. I'm sorry for no snow...I wanted it as much as you did. No, I don't think large scale forcings favored a wintry regime until February, with a transitioning 'sneak peak' beforehand. What would have altered the global state so quickly? Assuming ENSO is a property of the geomag sun, then my theory is internal regulation processes - superimposed on - the lagged base state = the operation of the thermal/kinetic budget interactive process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The predicted SNOstorm for 1/24-1/26: What will be right: 1. There will indeed be a strong storm, with heavy precipitation. 2. There will even be some brief snow/sleet at the onset, N&W. 3. IF, the cold air would have been in place, as it should have been we would be having our SECS. What went wrong: 1. Could not overcome this awful pattern. 2. Cold air locked up too far away. 3. La Nina, 2nd year in row, don't bet against it. I'm sorry for no snow...I wanted it as much as you did. 2. Doubt it seriously. 3. No, it wouldn't. The storm path is west of the Apps. With cold, that might have been a snow to sleet to freezing rain to drizzle event at best. What went wrong ..... trying to predict a snowstorm a month in advance. I don't care who does that or what their skill level is, if you predict a storm a month in advance, and it happens, you can chalk about 98% of that success to pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Here is that 'final push', right on scedule, that could have winter really unloading on us for most of February after the 7th of the month, with another period in March as MJO tries to get back into region 4 after looping from 7-3, before looping back into regions 1-3 again but missing region 8. I feel MJO is progged too slow in week 2 on the GEFS but that the general looks is in the right ballpark. the gfs and ens have been horrible with the mjo stick with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The predicted SNOstorm for 1/24-1/26: What will be right: 1. There will indeed be a strong storm, with heavy precipitation. 2. There will even be soYme brief snow/sleet at the onset, N&W. 3. IF, the cold air would have been in place, as it should have been we would be having our SECS. What went wrong: 1. Could not overcome this awful pattern. 2. Cold air locked up too far away. 3. La Nina, 2nd year in row, don't bet against it. I'm sorry for no snow...I wanted it as much as you did. Lol... What ifs can torture you. If Lee Evans had glue on his hands, the Ravens would be going to the Super Bowl. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Lol... What ifs can torture you. If Lee Evans had glue on his hands, the Ravens would be going to the Super Bowl. MDstorm I like the Russian version... If my grandmother had balls, she'd be my grandfather..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 2. Doubt it seriously. 3. No, it wouldn't. The storm path is west of the Apps. With cold, that might have been a snow to sleet to freezing rain to drizzle event at best. What went wrong ..... trying to predict a snowstorm a month in advance. I don't care who does that or what their skill level is, if you predict a storm a month in advance, and it happens, you can chalk about 98% of that success to pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If Lee Evans had glue on his hands, the Ravens would be going to the Super Bowl. As for the SNOstorm, I don't care if the temperature was below zero today. If a storm goes west of the Apps, most of the precip will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Lol... What ifs can torture you. If Lee Evans had glue on his hands, the Ravens would be going to the Super Bowl. MDstorm Lee evans now in good company, money players who dont perform undef pressure a common theme with the ravens now!!! Kinda same theme this winter, cold no storms. Nothing else you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Well at least the huge ridge in the west is still there on the h5 charts on the 12z GFS at 186 hrs... 570 DM heights at WA/BC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 just delete the thread and put us all out of our misery maybe then karma will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Lol... What ifs can torture you. If Lee Evans had glue on his hands, the Ravens would be going to the Super Bowl. MDstorm Lee evans now in good company, money players who dont perform under pressure, a recurring theme now with the ravens.Same this winter, cold no snow. Kinda lowers my expectations for the rest of the winter.Patriots just waited for the ravens to misfire. Were waiting to see if anything comes to fruition down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 just delete the thread and put us all out of our misery maybe then karma will bring it back Good comment and sound advice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Weak signal for perhaps something in the Feb 3-5 time period... and the 228 map is QPF wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 WAY out there... but PV moves into Quebec by 288... lotsa cold in E US... but then retrogrades back into North Central Canada by 348 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 WAY out there... but PV moves into Quebec by 288... lotsa cold in E US when the models are right 4 days out this might matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 when the models are right 4 days out this might matter True... but I think thats the first time I have seen the PV actually in a good position for us this winter... which isnt saying very much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 when the models are right 4 days out this might matter I can assure you the GFS is right with it because as soon as the pv moves out it warms and rains on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS is gradually caving to the Euro/GGEM idea of partially phasing the southern closed 500 energy with the northern stream vort. Which probably means the Euro will do a 180 and go to the GFS idea. If not, might be time to fork this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 I can assure you the GFS is right with it because as soon as the pv moves out it warms and rains on us Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If not, might be time to fork this one. Yea, probably right. We've been forked all winter and will probably get forked in Feb too. Ah, fork it! Who the fork cares anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yea, probably right. We've been forked all winter and will probably get forked in Feb too. Ah, fork it! Who the fork cares anymore. Fork the forking forkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS ensembles have completely caved to the Euro idea. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw Time for spring Mid-Atl severe thread. Let's just give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Time for spring Mid-Atl severe thread. Let's just give up. You can try. It just gets ignored. Maybe yours will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 the new euro agrees it's over, fwiw What's over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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