FrederickWX Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'm more interested in the period than any discrete threat. That doesn't mean we'll get anything in the Saturday-wednesday period. But I don't think the models really have a clue after day 4 or so, so I am skeptical about these breakdowns of the pattern and that our window is only a few days. It's possible we get something minor when the pattern is supposedly "reloading". This waiting game for a good pattern is a fools errand and really no better IMO than "wish casting" a small threat. We may never get a good pattern to lock in all winter. We are going to have to time something and get a little luck and no better time than in our climo's wheelhouse of the next 3 weeks. The pattern is lightning fast now and super changeable. There are cold fronts coming through every 3/4 days. The models are at the lower range of their skill and even the best mid rangers on this board are flummoxed by the next few weeks. I've gotten accumulating snow in the upcoming 3 week period 8 out of the last 9 winters. I have gotten a 3"+ storm 13/13 winters since I moved to DC proper in 1998 and a 4"+ 12/13. Good post. I think this pretty accurately summarizes what we are looking at over the next 3 weeks in a realistic (non-weenie) way. A good pattern is probably not going to lock in, but we have had plenty of moisture and cold front passages (even within our current "torch", as you accurately posted last week would happen). This time of year, we don't need it to be super cold - just some marginal cold, and a semi-reasonable track of a small wave or clipper to drop 2-3" of snow. We just need to keep expectations in check, and not try to create a big snowstorm out of a pattern that simply doesn't support it. I know I'll be happy with some clipper action, or maybe an event that drops 2-4" of snow (preferably during the day so I can enjoy it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I was just thinking that. Usually, we're counting on a phase to give us a storm, and those don't seem to ever happen. Of course, this will be the one time where we do get the phase... I could wait for the GFS to run, but I won't. There seems to be more signs pointing to a storm than against. It may very well be a rainstorm, but it would seem that the Euro is on its own this time. The latest SREFS, which don't go out far enough, would imply low pressure somewhere in the southeast/southeast coast early Sat morning. The NAM, which at 12z looked as if it would go the Euro route and have the southern energy get swept up by the northern stream, now looks like it is trying to leave it behind a bit. It's dumb of me to say that time will tell, but it really will. I still think we have a shot at this. Either that or the Euro is getting ready for a rout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I toured the various subforums north of us today. The MA forum isn't bad at all. I don't think wishcasting here is out of control at all. Quite the contrary. And I don't think there is anything wrong with discussing how it could possibly snow even when the odds are against it. Talking about snow in the winter is why most of us join these forums in the first place. Well put Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Good post. I think this pretty accurately summarizes what we are looking at over the next 3 weeks in a realistic (non-weenie) way. A good pattern is probably not going to lock in, but we have had plenty of moisture and cold front passages (even within our current "torch", as you accurately posted last week would happen). This time of year, we don't need it to be super cold - just some marginal cold, and a semi-reasonable track of a small wave or clipper to drop 2-3" of snow. We just need to keep expectations in check, and not try to create a big snowstorm out of a pattern that simply doesn't support it. I know I'll be happy with some clipper action, or maybe an event that drops 2-4" of snow (preferably during the day so I can enjoy it). I know what you're saying, but in my view, 2-4 is a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ....and the GFS returns to its 6z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 ....and the GFS returns to its 6z solution. Which is??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 From HPC THE 12Z GFS IS NEARLY AN OUTLIER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD ON DAY 3...WITH SUPPORTING SOLUTIONS ONLY PROVIDED BY ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE NAM CONUSNEST. LOW LATITUDE CLOSED LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EJECTING SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE OWING IN PART TO LARGER INITIALIZATION ERRORS INHERENT OUTSIDE OF THE MORE DATA-RICH CONUS REGION. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LOW...ERRORS MAY INDEED BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT EARLY ON. THIS IS CONFIRMED...AT LEAST IN THEORY...BY THE 4 KM NAM CONUSNEST WHICH SHOULD BE MORE CAPABLE OF RESOLVING ITS SMALL STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTS THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS...WILL WEIGHT THIS SCENARIO ONLY MINIMALLY INTO THE FINAL PROGS. OTHERWISE...EARLY GLANCE AT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THAT IS HAS SLOWED ITS ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND DAY 5 BY SIX TO TWELVE HRS FROM ITS PRIOR RUN...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO DEPICT A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WAS ALREADY ADDRESSED DURING THE MORNING ISSUANCE. From LWX LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIOS. GFS PATTERN INDICATES CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN US...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWPRES DVLPG OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND POTENTIAL WET WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. NO CUTOFF LOW ON THE ECMWF...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP FROM A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS. I found those to be interesting statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Which is??? A low pressure system that looks like it is trying to get to London as fast as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 A low pressure system that looks like it is trying to get to London as fast as possible. Yeah, I took a look was lazy. Why bother till friday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 we might need even need a coastal..we may get snow from the upper level energy on Sunday..models keep advertising it....it probably wouldnt amount to much That would be northern stream energy which rarely works... but...we can hope. The 264 hr GFS has the perfect combo for getting a snowstorm. Some type of low up near nova scotia and a vort digging to our south. Too bad it's at 264 hrs and will be gone on the next run but if I saw that pattern on a day 3 or 4 forecast, i'd be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 NWS Keeps some mixing alive Thursday AM and then calls for both rain and snow Saturday and Sunday - Sunday makes me laugh with rain and snow and mostly sunny forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't know if you saw the facebook post from DT early last week, talking about this week's torch. He was posting about how the GFS and Euro were both showing temps in the 60s (and even 70s for North Carolina and Virginia) at least one day this week. To be fair, he was only commenting on model runs (and not making a forecast), but it does go to show how awful the models have been this winter (seems like we say that every winter). You're really taking your chances looking at the models out beyond a couple of days. (Richmond did hit the mid-60s today, but they're back to the 50s tomorrow, and we're back to the 40s. Not that unusual or noteworthy to get a day with those types of temps this time of year.) Ever since DT banned me from his Facebook, I do not go back. But yes, he wasn't really making a forecast. am19psu was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wes, I was looking at the 00Z this morning and had what I believe you were saying at 288hr. Sure would be nice at day 3 or 4. Something like that is what I still believe we will get our 1 dump in this year. 1"in for my house and a long ways from the average. So in my mind it has to be 1 stop dump snowstorm. But what am I saying, this year is really sad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 That would be northern stream energy which rarely works... but...we can hope. The 264 hr GFS has the perfect combo for getting a snowstorm. Some type of low up near nova scotia and a vort digging to our south. Too bad it's at 264 hrs and will be gone on the next run but if I saw that pattern on a day 3 or 4 forecast, i'd be excited. be honest..should i give up on seeing a 4 inch snowstorm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 be honest..should i give up on seeing a 4 inch snowstorm this year. I don't think you should give up simply because of past history. At this point in 08-09, I think it was a worse winter than this one. We had had virtually no snow, cold all the time, with nothing but frozen brown ground and wind to show for it. You guys further east ended up getting a good one in March, but we didn't get any back here from that one, and only had about a 2.5 snow, .5 ice on top event at the end of January. If it doesn't snow again, I'd still rate this winter better than that one. I'd think in Feb/early March, a four inch storm could pop up at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 there is still alot of spread in the 18z gfs ensembles including a couple of blizzards http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf084.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 there is still alot of spread in the 18z gfs ensembles including a couple of blizzards http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf084.html Actually six of them show a really cranked up system. Too early in the game to give up. The 0z runs may be telling. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Some of those ensembles members are pretty solid. No need to punt this one yet. Models are garbage beyond 3 days this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 there is still alot of spread in the 18z gfs ensembles including a couple of blizzards http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf084.html Yep. This storm can do any number of things at this point. Probably have to wait til about 48 hour range to nail this one down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If we are going to have a storm on Saturday, it looks like the NAM hasn't caught on to the idea yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 If we are going to have a storm on Saturday, it looks like the NAM hasn't caught on to the idea yet. Actually it is a much better look than the 18z run. Looks like the storm is a day faster and hour 66 looks interesting. 18z had the storm sliding off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I think that storm at 66HR is a totally different piece of energy and not really the storm we are all keying on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 As much as I hate to hug weather models, I would think that the Euro needs to show something soon for this weekend. Hopefully, the next run or two will get on board the storm train. It seems very few storms sneak up on the Euro within 72 hours of the event. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 disaster run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 disaster run.. What weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Thru 144hr cold and dry,cold starting to receed. Feb starts at 144hr!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 h5 charts by the time you get out into the Feb 3 to Feb 7 period show huge ridge out west and nice trough in east and then becomes ugly again after. yes, its out there... but thats prob going to be our best time period for a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 h5 charts by the time you get out into the Feb 3 to Feb 7 period show huge ridge out west and nice trough in east... Yeah the pattern looks in that pattern if the troff isn't too progressive. Other than that, it's uglier than a monkies armpit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Frustrating that a model can't seen to hold a nice storm for a run before it pulls it away. Don't even have time to fantasize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Frustrating that a model can't seen to hold a nice storm for a run before it pulls it away. Don't even have time to fantasize Going off the 0z GFS ensemble mean, there is less spread among the individual members this run as well, and I'd imagine significantly less members show a good solution. Not surprising given the the Op run, the Euro/its ensembles, etc. So we can't even use the "what about the ensembles!!!" line for this one anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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