Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter.

Matt, did you guys in DC get anything out of the late Jan storm that simply hammered the southern and central Apps. I got about 18 inches from that one, Boone NC got at least 3 feet, and Canaan WV set the daily WV snow record at somewhere around 35 inches. That was a highly elevation dependent storm though, at least in the area I lived.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter.

maybe it's just me, but it seems last year started the trend with the Euro depiction of 12Z (perfect storm track, not cold enough)

or maybe it's just a 70's NINA thing that has cunningly taken over our winter climate for a few years

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man that thing is close to a phase.

No it's not.

If the timing works out perfectly for this it could be a big one

After working the phasing into perfect timing, you come up with a very, VERY low probability event at this point. No need to worry about such a scenario at this time.

Not jumping the gun, but the GFS in the long range is interesting a fantasy.

FYP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out.

Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Matt, did you guys in DC get anything out of the late Jan storm that simply hammered the southern and central Apps. I got about 18 inches from that one, Boone NC got at least 3 feet, and Canaan WV set the daily WV snow record at somewhere around 35 inches. That was a highly elevation dependent storm though, at least in the area I lived.

Maybe a dusting IIRC. I don't think more than that. I think my biggest event was the one in the 2nd week of December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellinwood,

I mean GFS looks much cooler in the long run then when I looked at it last. I find interesting compared to the real warm look I had seen a short time ago. Backwards and forwards between warm & cool.

You should have seen it several days ago... it's been flip-flopping for almost a week now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out.

Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch.

The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching.

Wes, isn't it true that the ens members individually don't have as much skill as the operational itself. I know that at longer ranges the ens would have more skill, but wouldn't that decrease as an event got closer?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching.

otoh, they were the same ensembles that advertised a slam-dunk heat wave by now

this has been a tough winter on everybody and everything in the wx prediction business

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like much uncertainty for the upcoming weekend. The 6z GFS is starting to bring the storm back, and it looks like the ens very much supports it based on the mean, but I can't see the individual runs. The Euro seems to have pushed the whole thing back a day, and now takes the low further off of the coast than it did before. I guess those who know more will chip in with their thoughts later on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...