Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It happend about 6 times in 97-98 It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter. Matt, did you guys in DC get anything out of the late Jan storm that simply hammered the southern and central Apps. I got about 18 inches from that one, Boone NC got at least 3 feet, and Canaan WV set the daily WV snow record at somewhere around 35 inches. That was a highly elevation dependent storm though, at least in the area I lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter. maybe it's just me, but it seems last year started the trend with the Euro depiction of 12Z (perfect storm track, not cold enough) or maybe it's just a 70's NINA thing that has cunningly taken over our winter climate for a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Man that thing is close to a phase. If the timing works out perfectly for this it could be a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not jumping the gun, but the GFS in the long range is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Man that thing is close to a phase. No it's not. If the timing works out perfectly for this it could be a big one After working the phasing into perfect timing, you come up with a very, VERY low probability event at this point. No need to worry about such a scenario at this time. Not jumping the gun, but the GFS in the long range is interesting a fantasy. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out. Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Matt, did you guys in DC get anything out of the late Jan storm that simply hammered the southern and central Apps. I got about 18 inches from that one, Boone NC got at least 3 feet, and Canaan WV set the daily WV snow record at somewhere around 35 inches. That was a highly elevation dependent storm though, at least in the area I lived. Maybe a dusting IIRC. I don't think more than that. I think my biggest event was the one in the 2nd week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ellinwood, I mean GFS looks much cooler in the long run then when I looked at it last. I find interesting compared to the real warm look I had seen a short time ago. Backwards and forwards between warm & cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ellinwood, I mean GFS looks much cooler in the long run then when I looked at it last. I find interesting compared to the real warm look I had seen a short time ago. Backwards and forwards between warm & cool. You should have seen it several days ago... it's been flip-flopping for almost a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out. Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch. The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. Wes, isn't it true that the ens members individually don't have as much skill as the operational itself. I know that at longer ranges the ens would have more skill, but wouldn't that decrease as an event got closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. otoh, they were the same ensembles that advertised a slam-dunk heat wave by now this has been a tough winter on everybody and everything in the wx prediction business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes it has been a wild LRF this winter. But overall crappy winter for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 18z snatched our sw low. Nothing left to create the weekend storm. I guess this story gets continued ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Good analogy...that was like a telegraphed KU storm turning into 25 and sunny at the last minute. So, please tell me there's a telegraphed KU coming...tomorrow, preferably, to cheer me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 What is the GFS saying this late hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 What is the GFS saying this late hour? says take a nap through early next week at least.. only out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro has a 1-3" snow event next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro has a 1-3" snow event next Sunday That's interesting, but a switch from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Looks like much uncertainty for the upcoming weekend. The 6z GFS is starting to bring the storm back, and it looks like the ens very much supports it based on the mean, but I can't see the individual runs. The Euro seems to have pushed the whole thing back a day, and now takes the low further off of the coast than it did before. I guess those who know more will chip in with their thoughts later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro intersting in that the next 10 days troughs develop in the eastern us moreso than the west. Is that a sign of the times/? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 LOL on the 06Z DGEX. Very close to a major Snowstorm with a 988 low off of O.C. MD. Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro Weenie snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 ^want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 ^want Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Way to early on this possibility. The models flip flop so much to the point where I will not say anything until 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Weenie Save this image cause it will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 For the weekend it looks like we can have marginal cold or moisture, but not both. Either way, it probably isn't cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Way to early on this possibility. The models flip flop so much to the point where I will not say anything until 2 days out. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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