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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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it's not optimal of course but getting a solid track in the middle of winter is hard to totally ignore. even the warm runs like 12z euro yesterday which had the 0c 850 in ny still had 850s over us of like +2 or so and decent chill at the surface. it's hard to say we're totally out of it even in that environment let alone the much better one on the gfs today.

Exactly. That's what makes it easy to decide not to punt this one. I posted about this earlier. Great track at 850 and 500 in the last week of January. Yea, it can easily be a rainer or a whiff but I just don't remember very many setups like this that have no chance at snow. Bucks climo pretty hard in this instance.

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Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen.

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Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen.

I find it ironic that we're counting on our first "real" threat of the season to NOT phase.

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Euro, GGEM and GFS look pretty similar through 48 with the evolution of the vorticity associated with the potential Saturday storm and the Thursday/Friday storm. But then Euro and GGEM partially phase the closed low down south (the potential Saturday storm) with the northern stream and totally amp up the Thursday/Friday storm. So, basically there's nothing left for Saturday. Need to keep them separate if we want Saturday to happen.

With the difference being that thin, you'd think that we won't know for maybe a couple of days. As far as I can tell, the energy in the northern stream that either will or won't "grab" that southern stream feature is well out over the pacific.

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Wouldn't it be interezting if we got a weaker version of jan 31 1966 the snowstorm that was not modeled or forecasted, but just happened!!! That was my first real""blizzard"". At 8:00 sat morning the forecast was for sunny skies, col highs in the mid 20's , by 8;30 it had changed to heavy snow warning and by 10:30 it was snowing hard. The storm closed balto for, I think at least two days, mabe more.That year i grad from high schhol. My first memorable snowstorm. Snow flakes came down,at one time at the rate of 4" an hour. It was an incredible experience.

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it might be annoying from time to time but why is wishful weeniesm any different (not counting matt of course) but it seems there are plenty who are like "im just going to hope for the best all the time!"

Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying.

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Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying.

you just seem really sensitive over the issue. or this is some backhanded way of telling people like me not to post. the sun angle/spring stuff was in jest.. i know my climo as well as anyone. it's just as tedious reading "im going with the snowiest model and hopign for the best ****"

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you just seem really sensitive over the issue. or this is some backhanded way of telling people like me not to post. the sun angle/spring stuff was in jest.. i know my climo as well as anyone. it's just as tedious reading "im going with the snowiest model and hopign for the best ****"

I just said the same thing Matt said in so many words, yet I'm really sensitive. :facepalm:

Alright.

Anyway, I hope it snows.

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I just said the same thing Matt said in so many words, yet I'm really sensitive. :facepalm:

Alright.

Anyway, I hope it snows.

I think my response was basically the same if not in the exact same words. Discussion here will never be perfect for any one person. Some disagreement seems better than all of us posting the same thing tho. Plus that leaves room for gloating when one side is right etc.

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Look, most people know I'm more about having fun, making lemons out of lemonade..joking.... xx will be telling, etc etc. But if we're being serious, I'd much rather have somebody looking for reasons FOR it to snow than constantly mentioning things we already know.....sun angle, temps marginal, etc etc..especially when we at least have somewhat of a chance. It gets tedious sifting through post after post of negative nancy stuff. We have Wes and Coastalwx who can take up that brigade with confidence, as well they should because it's their jobs and they know what to look for. I don't mind realism, nothing wrong with that. But constantly sifting through 100 posts in winter about how spring is coming is annoying.

Well stated. There are two camps here. The weenies (like me) enjoying tracking a possible snowstorm and then there are the Mets who do this for a living or "used to". Obviously most of everyone on this forum grew up snow lovers, even the Mets who were smart enough to get their degrees and work at something they really love. That being said, I suppose in the back of the weenie mind we all acknowledge the fact that 98% of possible snowstorms in a La Nina year have no shot of verifying so when cold water (maybe not in a nina year) is thrown on a possibility that shows up on a model in about three minutes after seeing it for the first time on a model, the depression sets in. Unfortunately, there is really nothing that can be done about that, unless the realists give us weenies at least ten minutes of wishful thinking before bringing us back to the doldrums.

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I don't think there is much wish casting in this forum but maybe I am just ignoring it. I think for the most part there is a good understanding of the challenges we face in getting snow.

not institutional no.. but then there are stretches where everyone's like "hey if it's not going to snow i'll be extra positive till it does". that's basically the same thing for discussion. i don't necessarily mind, it's easy enough to ignore. but if on the flipside we have this "don't say anything negative unless you're wes" argument.. it's a bit trickier. i have gotten at least a sense that reaching is a bit more acceptable this winter than in a more productive one as well. maybe that's imagined.. who knows. im not really that frustrated with anything other than i have never really liked attempts to stifle discussion with one side dominating over the other. i don't think me posting that avgs are going up (super slowly for the next 2-3 weeks) really detracts from convo that much or hurts anyone who has to read it. if yoda thinks a storm is not worth watching because the green doesnt get past the blue line over the area then he deservers the talking to not everyone who is overly cautious.

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I don't think there is much wish casting in this forum but maybe I am just ignoring it. I think for the most part there is a good understanding of the challenges we face in getting snow.

I toured the various subforums north of us today. The MA forum isn't bad at all. I don't think wishcasting here is out of control at all. Quite the contrary. And I don't think there is anything wrong with discussing how it could possibly snow even when the odds are against it. Talking about snow in the winter is why most of us join these forums in the first place.

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BBs snow prediction will save us all, don't worry folks... our 30 inches are coming!

Or we can listen to am19psu who has been tweeting the last few days about "Feb 5th as the start of a wintry period in the East, at least relative to the rest of winter"

...though we all know how his torch call worked out.....

I don't know if you saw the facebook post from DT early last week, talking about this week's torch. He was posting about how the GFS and Euro were both showing temps in the 60s (and even 70s for North Carolina and Virginia) at least one day this week. To be fair, he was only commenting on model runs (and not making a forecast), but it does go to show how awful the models have been this winter (seems like we say that every winter). You're really taking your chances looking at the models out beyond a couple of days. (Richmond did hit the mid-60s today, but they're back to the 50s tomorrow, and we're back to the 40s. Not that unusual or noteworthy to get a day with those types of temps this time of year.)

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