Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 but damn the torch got owned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here Ditto. but damn the torch got owned A rare event for us... it's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 28th-29th possible event looks interesting on the 18z GFS ensemble... gonna have to look at the individual members on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Clown maps put 1-2" down from DC northward by hour 114-120 (betwee 6z to 18z on the 26th). 12z ECM has similar totals on its clown map. i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here I think it is at least interesting that the two models have solutions that are this similar at exactly the same time range. That doesn't do anything to increase the chances of them being right, but it is noteworthy. I don't put any real hopes in 5 day solutions. Last night I had more than reasonable hope of a couple of inches of snow and even that fell through. So, if this fizzles out over the next day or two, I won't be surprised at all. But one thing, the models surely are programmed with the knowledge needed to create a forecast. If either of these models put out solutions within 5 days that are only a remote possibility, then I don't think I'd consider that a very worthwhile computer program. So, if the models are programmed with ample knowledge, which I'm sure they are, and they don't typically spit out the 1 in a 1000 outcome resulting from input data, which I'm sure they don't, then the soluton they are showing is at least a "reasonable" possibility given the quality of the data ingested. However, for whatever reason, these models sure do have a knack of spitting out a snow possibility at these ranges for the NoVa, DC, MD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Gonna be interesting to see just how high the temps climb tomorrow. Could be enough ice tomorrow night to at least make roads slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. I love me a torch as much as anyone, but last night gave me a little tingle and made me want some more snow. As Ellinwood said, perhaps it's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. I love how DT doesn't mention his failed massive warmth post starting the 21st -27th LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. The models are pretty bad in a Nina outside 3-4 days. We "ugly" our way to our seasonal total almost every winter so I don't think people should be so bearish especially when snow climo is the best it gets over the next couple weeks. Chances are most threats won't come to fruition but they all are worth keeping an eye on. DC is an awful place to only be a fan of moderate to large storms. That said, since I moved to DC proper in the fall of 1998 I have gotten at least one 3"+ storm every single winter so 13 for 13 and I am 12 for 13 on 4" events. So it isn't like we live in Atlanta either. But we probably live in the most frustrating place to like snow in the world bar none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. Poor Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The models are pretty bad in a Nina outside 3-4 days. We "ugly" our way to our seasonal total almost every winter so I don't think people should be so bearish especially when snow climo is the best it gets over the next couple weeks. Chances are most threats won't come to fruition but they all are worth keeping an eye on. DC is an awful place to only be a fan of moderate to large storms. That said, since I moved to DC proper in the fall of 1998 I have gotten at least one 3"+ storm every single winter so 13 for 13 and I am 12 for 13 on 4" events. So it isn't like we live in Atlanta either. But we probably live in the most frustrating place to like snow in the world bar none. Was '08/'09 a mega-fail winter in your mind, or does one single 6"+ storm compensate for a really crappy seasonal total? For me, that winter was bad but not in the "worst" category- despite the final season total-because we did get the largest snowstorm in three winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Was '08/'09 a mega-fail winter in your mind, or does one single 6"+ storm compensate for a really crappy seasonal total? For me, that winter was bad but not in the "worst" category- despite the final season total-because we did get the largest snowstorm in three winters. The March storm saved it. It was a great storm to boot. I had 3 cartop events (12/6, 2/3-4 and 2/18) but none were memorable in DC. 1/27 was a cool event but the winter sucked until the march storm. It was such a great storm I didnt care about what came before at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 6z GFS ens mean and members say that the weekend is not a lost cause. The Euro not much. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 6z GFS ens mean and members say that the weekend is not a lost cause. The Euro not much. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Hey, we backed into the last one right? This one doesn't look like we'll have a good hp to work with. A 1020 around cape cod aint gonna do it. However, CAD already showing up at the surface and 850's. Maybe another sloppy miracle in the works? If any type of hp starts showing up around se canada or upstate ny then we may be in business. Clipper type system comes after too. Passes to our north but it's down the road a bit. Maybe trough behind weekend's system digs a little deeper and the 500 energy digs south of us. I got my weenie glasses on today and perfect scenarios are clear as day. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. The latest GFS is now more in line with the earlier ens mean. Low is stronger, closer to coast. It has slowed the 500 low from its 6z run. The problem seems that if its too slow, too deep, too early, it sends the low up the piedmont like 0z did. Too fast, too weak, sends it out to sea. Seems like we need perfect timing to stay cold enough with enough precip. Would seem to be worth watching at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Any snow setup this winter will likely never look great or classic in any sense of the word. We will have to thread the needle and get a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Help me learn something here. We need that phase to occur pretty far east don't we? Otherwise, we end up with a low pretty far to the west? If its a small event we're looking for wouldn't we want an unphased setup sending a low just to our southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. I don't see a major snowstorm but a couple of ens membes do suggest that the system is worth watching. Upper lows that get lost over the south are wild cards to a certain extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I don't see a major snowstorm but a couple of ens membes do suggest that the system is worth watching. Upper lows that get lost over the south are wild cards to a certain extent. The next panel of those looked even better. I like it when we have a low pressure moving south of us, close enough to throw in some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I wish we could trade hp's from Friday night's event for this event. Either way, we seem to be having some luck with marginal setups lately. It was fun watching Friday's event trend better for the days leading up. It would be fun having a legitimate threat to track during a week that was forecasted to have highs in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Help me learn something here. We need that phase to occur pretty far east don't we? Otherwise, we end up with a low pretty far to the west? If its a small event we're looking for wouldn't we want an unphased setup sending a low just to our southeast? Not sure what "far east" means but maybe the mid-lower MS valley or a bit east. At least that's what my mind's eye imagines. It's a long shot but if the closed low (assuming it does close) hangs back longer than the models think, which often happens, it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro has the weekend storm, but it looks like NW burbs score based on the snowfall map. Rain in the cities and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro has the weekend storm, but it looks like NW burbs score based on the snowfall map. Rain in the cities and SE. only in this winter can we get a 996mb low bombing 50 miles east of Ocean City on January 28th and it be a driving rainstorm....though as depicted it does changeover for a 1-3" event for Leesburg, MRB etc and maybe here in DC I would see a brief period of snow at the end.... We have to keep tracking this one....maybe the timing will get better or it will trend colder as we get closer.....Another flawed event seems like the most probable this winter, so maybe a rain to snow event is in the cards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 only in this winter can we get a 996mb low bombing 50 miles east of Ocean City on January 28th and it be a driving rainstorm....though as depicted it does changeover for a 1-3" event for Leesburg, MRB etc and maybe here in DC I would see a brief period of snow at the end.... We have to keep tracking this one....maybe the timing will get better or it will trend colder as we get closer.....Another flawed event seems like the most probable this winter, so maybe a rain to snow event is in the cards.... There's enough uncertainty to keep watching. Because of the lack of cold air, for you and I it's an uphill battle but at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 only in this winter can we get a 996mb low bombing 50 miles east of Ocean City on January 28th and it be a driving rainstorm....though as depicted it does changeover for a 1-3" event for Leesburg, MRB etc and maybe here in DC I would see a brief period of snow at the end.... We have to keep tracking this one....maybe the timing will get better or it will trend colder as we get closer.....Another flawed event seems like the most probable this winter, so maybe a rain to snow event is in the cards.... It happend about 6 times in 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Glad to see the Euro joining the "interesting" party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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