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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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OK, lets move on. Looking ahead, the srefs would say that portions of the area deal with frozen precip again tomorrow night, most likely freezing rain from what I can see. Then, and I have to say this is interesting, the Euro has snow breaking out in parts of WV around hour 150 and then exploding in PA. The Euro stuff is always hard to make out so its hard to tell exactly what this is, but it does bear watching. The Euro and its ens. both develop what looks like a strengthening NAO as we head toward Feb. Who knows, good times ahead?

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GFS and Euro operationals showing a possible CAD snow/mix event in the 26th-28th timeframe... not a classic setup for it, though.

EDIT: 6z GFS took that away pretty quick :P

12z Euro has a coastal next Saturday.....as depicted it is a marginal event....would be better for the NW burbs....850 temps sink below 0 just southeast of DC and then a nice thump....1004mb low off Ocean City MD

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12z Euro's got two chances for wintry precip... the 26th-27th as mentioned earlier, with another coastal on the 28th-29th.

The 26th-27th system starts off under CAD as the surface low transfers from the southern Apps to the coast east of Delaware. A weak area of high pressure is sitting over southern Quebec.

The 28th-29th system is an awesome Georgia -> Carolinas -> Virginia Beach -> Cape Cod track. No High to the north... instead there's a low pressure center over James Bay. 850s look better for this system compared to the first one.

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12z Euro has a coastal next Saturday.....as depicted it is a marginal event....would be better for the NW burbs....850 temps sink below 0 just southeast of DC and then a nice thump....1004mb low off Ocean City MD

there is a nice PNA spike for a 2-3 day period....maybe we can sneak in another small-medium event in the January 27-31 period...the pattern isn't going to be great...It would be flawed probably....FWIW, GFS has the "storm" too, but it is delayed by 12-24 hours and then the model truncates and the solution gets kind of wacky...The GFS is a colder setup....THis week looks bleh....The Thursday event keeps looking less and less like it has any potential...not that it really ever did.....

so hopefully we will have something to track for late next weekend or early next week

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12z Euro's got two chances for wintry precip... the 26th-27th as mentioned earlier, with another coastal on the 28th-29th.

The 26th-27th system starts off under CAD as the surface low transfers from the southern Apps to the coast east of Delaware. A weak area of high pressure is sitting over southern Quebec.

The 28th-29th system is an awesome Georgia -> Carolinas -> Virginia Beach -> Cape Cod track. No High to the north... instead there's a low pressure center over James Bay. 850s look better for this system compared to the first one.

I kind of wrote off Thursday's event.....the models have had it for a couple days now and it has never looked good....Maybe I shouldnt be punting it this early

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12z Euro's got two chances for wintry precip... the 26th-27th as mentioned earlier, with another coastal on the 28th-29th.

The 26th-27th system starts off under CAD as the surface low transfers from the southern Apps to the coast east of Delaware. A weak area of high pressure is sitting over southern Quebec.

The 28th-29th system is an awesome Georgia -> Carolinas -> Virginia Beach -> Cape Cod track. No High to the north... instead there's a low pressure center over James Bay. 850s look better for this system compared to the first one.

Alas in 12 hours it could be gone. Perhaps this storm we just got done with is a bit of a tide turner (not for anything major, but maybe a few more nickel and dime events).

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Alas in 12 hours it could be gone. Perhaps this storm we just got done with is a bit of a tide turner (not for anything major, but maybe a few more nickel and dime events).

climo

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I kind of wrote off Thursday's event.....the models have had it for a couple days now and it has never looked good....Maybe I shouldnt be punting it this early

For me, that's the one I find interesting. I guess its because the Euro had it last night, and then improved it at 12z and kept generally the same time frame. It looks better for areas NW of DC than DC, but, even assuming the event happens, lots can change like it did with the last one. About 3 of the GFS members have a similar system. I guess we'll see in a few days.

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so we score next weekend?...I got 7" in 2007-08..>lowest in 10 winters....If we cant top that we are pathetic

maybe... i guess i should have looked before giving SPI a 1. it's definitely a lot easier to fall into an event during this period than most.

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maybe... i guess i should have looked before giving SPI a 1. it's definitely a lot easier to fall into an event during this period than most.

Thursday does not look promising ....But next weekend the pattern isnt that bad...it may not be falling into anything...But it is still day 7-10....no reason to bump up the SPI...I think this idea that we will lock into a good pattern at some point is not something anyone should be waiting for...though it could happen

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It's kind of sketchy... northern stream digging into the Midwest. Odds are against it.

I don't see it as being a viable threat for us, up to the north yes but having low pressure over the lakes and then hoping that a northern stream vort will somehow dig to our south is a tough sell at least to me. The later threat looks better but doesn't have any cold air to work with. That far out, I guess it could change so I wouldn't completely write it off but think it is a long shot as it too has low pressure to our north instead of high so it probably is going to have a hard time holding cold air in providing there is any to hold in which looks doubtful.

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Thursday does not look promising ....But next weekend the pattern isnt that bad...it may not be falling into anything...But it is still day 7-10....no reason to bump up the SPI...I think this idea that we will lock into a good pattern at some point is not something anyone should be waiting for...though it could happen

hoiw often do we get a good storm with a low up north like that?

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hoiw often do we get a good storm with a low up north like that?

Not often. Going back almost 10 years now, me and Mitchnick always used to cringe when we saw a lakes low on a model run depicting a storm. But I don't think anyone is hoping for anything good. 80%+ of our snow events are small flawed t-2". And we are in the midst of a warm crappy winter. Why focus on getting a "good" event when in all likelihood we will get either 0 or 1 this entire winter? Last night was not a big deal but I still enjoyed it. I'd happily take as many t-2" events a we can get.

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Not often. Going back almost 10 years now, me and Mitchnick always used to cringe when we saw a lakes low on a model run depicting a storm. But I don't think anyone is hoping for anything good. 80%+ of our snow events are small flawed t-2". And we are in the midst of a warm crappy winter. Why focus on getting a "good" event when in all likelihood we will get either 0 or 1 this entire winter? Last night was not a big deal but I still enjoyed it. I'd happily take as many t-2" events a we can get.

True. Some snow is better than none.0

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Not often. Going back almost 10 years now, me and Mitchnick always used to cringe when we saw a lakes low on a model run depicting a storm. But I don't think anyone is hoping for anything good. 80%+ of our snow events are small flawed t-2". And we are in the midst of a warm crappy winter. Why focus on getting a "good" event when in all likelihood we will get either 0 or 1 this entire winter? Last night was not a big deal but I still enjoyed it. I'd happily take as many t-2" events a we can get.

I'll preface this by saying I wouldn't dare debate anyone here about weather forecasting, but, in trying to be positive, I have to point out that the low in the lakes is about 300 miles further northwest on the 12 run (EC) than it was on the 0z, the digging energy is about the same in the midwest, a 1024 high is sitting about Montreal (last night was 1028 in about the same spot), and the flow is blocked a little bit around Nova Scotia. Are none of those things positive? And, of course, I'm not talking storm here. I'm like you guys in looking for small winter events.

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This is very close to the Euro solution for the same time. Only that the low in the lakes is about 600 miles further NW than depicted here.

The GFS leaves open the possibility for next weekend too.

Clown maps put 1-2" down from DC northward by hour 114-120 (betwee 6z to 18z on the 26th). 12z ECM has similar totals on its clown map.

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