Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 maybe we can nuke the low in the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here's the 500mb anomaly map for Saturday. http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH120.gif Based on the raw math, the NAO is neutral and the PNA is also essentially neutral (transitioning from negative to positive). It's certainly not a 500mb set up that screams KU or anything like that, but that's a decent set up for snow for us (assuming there's already sufficient cold air). That does look pretty nice. Probably won't have a nice hp to the n & w to work with. Stupid gl low appears to want to muck things up. If anything, a weaker low sliding by to the south and off the coast without getting it's act together would be a better scenario. Should be another fun week. Maybe we have back to back events where everything trends in our favor leading up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Change that L over the great lakes into an H and we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro has 1000 mb low off delmarva sat at 18z with no cold air to be found.. precip barely gets to us as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 tho it's a very tight gradient in dc area.. almost nothing nw to 1-2" in se va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 and actually that's 12z not 18z.. sfc temps are potentially not terribly far off but 850s suck. maybe we can get the storm to create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 tho it's a very tight gradient in dc area.. almost nothing nw to 1-2" in se va Well, precip sheild ends up further n&w more often than not. However, if it's rain it can stay down in the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 and actually that's 12z not 18z.. sfc temps are potentially not terribly far off but 850s suck. maybe we can get the storm to create its own cold air. not even close http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 no go on the sunday snow tho i think that might have been there partly since the sat sys was wimped on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 not even close http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest yeah, tho they're not super warm either even though 0c is way the fook north of us. enough to hope for some dynamic process? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 tho it's a very tight gradient in dc area.. almost nothing nw to 1-2" in se va sounds like the dec 26 disaster from last year except its warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 All the 12z GFS ensemble members have the Saturday storm, but all but a couple are rainers. Most take a route up the Apps instead of offshore. The ensemble mean at 120 was a bit deceptive in having a coastal storm with the 850mb 0C line overhead. The 850 0C is only that far east because 4 members have the storm past us by that point and the cold front has pushed that line well OTS. With the ridge axis out west essentially on the coast, an Apps track makes sense. The old rule of thumb I learned for coastal storms was we want the ridge axis near Boise, ID. Think we might want to hope for a weaker low that slides OTS but throws enough precip up our way for some light snow. Even then I think having sufficiently cold air is problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 and actually that's 12z not 18z.. sfc temps are potentially not terribly far off but 850s suck. maybe we can get the storm to create its own cold air. It's worth asking the question. You never know...it may say "yes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 the euro has pulled back every snowy solution it has given us this year within 1-2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro is cold after the storm until a midweek rain bomb next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Actually, the Euro and the GFS are just about the same with the storm. It's the GFS ens members which all show a more potent, west, north storm than either operational. Not all of them would be bad, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro is cold after the storm until a midweek rain bomb next week Status quo all year. Until just recently the entire winter has been 2 coldish days followed by 1 normal day followed by 2 above normal days then rain followed by a cold front.....blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 euro is cold after the storm until a midweek rain bomb next week Next week's rain bomb----the pattern changer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 imo- storm for the upcoming weekend needs to be weak, pass to the south, and happen at night or it will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Next week's rain bomb----the pattern changer. MDstorm yea, we haven't had a strong se ridge all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The models are going to jump around wildly outside a few days.....I'm sure everyone already knows that though......This winter it is easy to say something will not happen and it probably won't happen, but I am not skilled enough to say whether a small frozen event can or cannot happen outside of 3-4 days...the pattern is too progressive...there are too many moving pieces...even the euro may start the far NW burbs as frozen on THU morning....I certainly wouldn't punt anything after day 3-4 So true. Just wish we had more promise on locking in some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The models are going to jump around wildly outside a few days.....I'm sure everyone already knows that though......This winter it is easy to say something will not happen and it probably won't happen, but I am not skilled enough to say whether a small frozen event can or cannot happen outside of 3-4 days...the pattern is too progressive...there are too many moving pieces...even the euro may start the far NW burbs as frozen on THU morning....I certainly wouldn't punt anything after day 3-4 There is definitely a reason to pay attention to the upcoming period with the small but useful west-based -NAO block (which is merely a reflection of the vortex coming southward). I think anything before the cold arrives will be disappointing / very low-end. It is just too warm. But once the cold arrives this weekend into next week, the setup will be there for another widespread winter storm. The window isn't the greatest because the Pacific will be itching to end this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 THat is fine....we need to time something anyway...no reason we can't time another mixed event here with a little luck... As far at the NAO, I figured that was a reason we might get something to amplify on the frontal boundary where we have failed with so many fronts this winter....euro showed that last night and then lost it If anything were to get going before the cold air arrives, it would have to intensify significantly to produce. The lack of cold air will really be an inhibitor; but, you are right that the potential for an intensifying storm is there during that time frame. There was a signal today on the ECMWF ensembles for this weekend before the RNA came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Should this period fail to produce, our next potential would be mid-month perhaps...Maybe the 10 day period of 2/15 through 2/25 when the forcing may potentially propagate (developing some possible factors that would favor the stagnancy of the forcing to end). The forcing would try to push back toward the unfavorable regions again after that though, so that's why I think it may be another 10 day window instead of something that locks in for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Should this period fail to produce, our next potential would be mid-month perhaps...Maybe the 10 day period of 2/15 through 2/25 when the forcing may potentially propagate (developing some possible factors that would favor the stagnancy of the forcing to end). The forcing would try to push back toward the unfavorable regions again after that though, so that's why I think it may be another 10 day window instead of something that locks in for weeks. I've been keeping an eye on the mjo ens forecast and it looks like there is a good possiblity that it is going to get its act together again after wallowing in the COD for a while. Forecast push it along pretty nicely into phase 6. Do you think it will ever push into our favorable phaes 8-1 before our winter is pretty much over? It looks like this might be our last hurrah for the MJO to help us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 HM, Thanks for giving us some sign of hope. When February is finished in my area, winters 9 out of 10 are for the most finished. I am very curious about the MJO as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 18z GFS hour 96 has an interesting look to it. Storm is suppressed at 102 but kind of a close miss. Maybe close enough to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Nasty day and evening. Heck of a way to run a torch. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 this winter has been so bad that we havent had one reference to the jan 25,2000 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 07-08 is the only winter I didn't get measurable between 1/25 and 2/15 since 01-02. 8 for 9. We'll score something even if it's small. This is our money timeframe. Well, it would seem that the GFS ens members leave just about any scenario possible over the course of the next five days. Maybe your mojo can whip up something good. It sure has been interesting watching these ens members for this upcoming weekend the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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