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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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the euro is drier than we want except for N MD.....Phineas is in a good spot....but I like that every model shows it snowing by around midnight or earlier

Probably another blatant weenie statement on my part but I think the euro is underdoing the qpf because of the source of the system. Super moist pac flow crushing the NW and traversing the country. I would have to think the nam/gfs are probably right. It's not like a vort coming out of central canada bumping into a super dry airmass. Those always seem to be overdone on precip with all models (probably because of the precip required to saturate the column?). We shouldn't have much "wasted precip" with this one.

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it's a hair cooler at 850.. not enough to really matter south of the md/pa border tho -- might actually be a touch warmer at the surface tho. it's pretty dry still.

i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences

12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier...

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i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences

12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier...

yeah, agree.. 6z looks almost identical at the surface, 12z looks a touch warmer but i dunno.. we're talking a few miles either way.

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In all seriousness, I think we're outside of the Euro's range for CAD events....Wes sort of agreed.

18z NAM will be...well, you know.

it is a tad warmer than GFS/NAM but it is showing the same idea so I think it is on board.....as far as precip I don't know that you can punt it....it's dryness worries me a bit.....we may get donut holed at some point

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i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences

12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier...

I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast.

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I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast.

yup.. yay wes!

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I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast.

the euro was a little wetter last night...i'd be nervous in the southern burbs...I think Northern and NW burbs will do the best with this one...I'd like to be where Phineas is

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the euro was a little wetter last night...i'd be nervous in the southern burbs...I think Northern and NW burbs will do the best with this one...I'd like to be where Phineas is

No you would not, then you would have to watch the Ravens beat the Pats with him. All the while he would be reminding you how bad the Eagles suck.

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i said this in a way 10 posts back, bit I'm not Wes. :(;)

the difference is no one respects you... :P

sorry, i must have missed it. im not here to stifle the excitement but we have a tendency as a region to go from near suicidal to total weenie.

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the difference is no one respects you... :P

sorry, i must have missed it. im not here to stifle the excitement but we have a tendency as a region to go from near suicidal to total weenie.

I'm just messin.

It is still an iffy situ for DC but as long as most areas dont jump in temps unexpectedly they can see something frzn fall. .25" at 250:1 ratios can go a long way.

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