Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 the nam might be best for temps but assuming it's .6 qpf is more right than the euro is not wise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the euro is drier than we want except for N MD.....Phineas is in a good spot....but I like that every model shows it snowing by around midnight or earlier Probably another blatant weenie statement on my part but I think the euro is underdoing the qpf because of the source of the system. Super moist pac flow crushing the NW and traversing the country. I would have to think the nam/gfs are probably right. It's not like a vort coming out of central canada bumping into a super dry airmass. Those always seem to be overdone on precip with all models (probably because of the precip required to saturate the column?). We shouldn't have much "wasted precip" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the nam might be best for temps but assuming it's .6 qpf is more right than the euro is not wise imo. Both the NAM and GFS has a decent precip hole just to our S so it isn't out of the question that the euro is keying on that. Want the NAM tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Is the SUNY MM5 good at all in these types of events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 it's a hair cooler at 850.. not enough to really matter south of the md/pa border tho -- might actually be a touch warmer at the surface tho. it's pretty dry still. i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences 12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Is the SUNY MM5 good at all in these types of events? only if it shows a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Is the SUNY MM5 good at all in these types of events? I wouldn't turst it's qpf. The few times I used it in a forecast, it hurt my forecast more than helped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 JB has 1-3" of snow ending as ice/rain for folks west of the Bay and north of Rt-50/I-66. Not actually too crazy. Better than Roker's forecast. Here is his snow map: http://t.co/2APnda40 And he posted this Wed morning if i remember correctly. He may actually nail this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 only if it shows a lot of snow the 850 0c line is south of us at 09z SAT FWIW on its 12z run... but thats 45 hrs out... and isn't that a bit out of its range? 48 hrs its crossed through DC barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences 12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier... yeah, agree.. 6z looks almost identical at the surface, 12z looks a touch warmer but i dunno.. we're talking a few miles either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In all seriousness, I think we're outside of the Euro's range for CAD events....Wes sort of agreed. 18z NAM will be...well, you know. it is a tad warmer than GFS/NAM but it is showing the same idea so I think it is on board.....as far as precip I don't know that you can punt it....it's dryness worries me a bit.....we may get donut holed at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I wouldn't turst it's qpf. The few times I used it in a forecast, it hurt my forecast more than helped it. Agree... I was more using it for its mid and upper levels of the atmosphere re: CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i just did a side by side comparison of 12z and 0z runs....they are very similar with minor differences 12z has earlier onset of precip and it has a sharper, broader CAD signature at the surface at 06z, but it is drier... I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast. yup.. yay wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yup.. yay wes! I hope Jason tweeks my article as I never saw the euro before writing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yup.. yay wes! If we get more than .15 of QPF i am going to bump this so i can troll you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think the drier solution is a little scarey as this system is pretty weak and isn't going to have great moisture with it. If the low continues to trend weaker, the precip may also end up lighter. The euro precip forecast is more likely to verify than the canadian snow forecast. the euro was a little wetter last night...i'd be nervous in the southern burbs...I think Northern and NW burbs will do the best with this one...I'd like to be where Phineas is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I hope Jason tweeks my article as I never saw the euro before writing it. If we get .30 or more of QPF i am going to be JI and troll you mercilessly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 If we get more than .15 of QPF i am going to bump this so i can troll you . i'll take being wrong over hugging the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the euro was a little wetter last night...i'd be nervous in the southern burbs...I think Northern and NW burbs will do the best with this one...I'd like to be where Phineas is Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I hope Jason tweeks my article as I never saw the euro before writing it. I dont think the Euro changes anything except possibly yielding a bit to its dryness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yup.. yay wes! i said this in a way 10 posts back, bit I'm not Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the euro was a little wetter last night...i'd be nervous in the southern burbs...I think Northern and NW burbs will do the best with this one...I'd like to be where Phineas is No you would not, then you would have to watch the Ravens beat the Pats with him. All the while he would be reminding you how bad the Eagles suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wondering here... was the EURO too dry with the January ice storm? Or did it get it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i'll take being wrong over hugging the ggem I would never hug the GGEM, like we all know from past storms it usually is wrong but the GFS is showing quite a bit more than the EURO so there is hope the Euro is light on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 i said this in a way 10 posts back, bit I'm not Wes. the difference is no one respects you... sorry, i must have missed it. im not here to stifle the excitement but we have a tendency as a region to go from near suicidal to total weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the difference is no one respects you... sorry, i must have missed it. im not here to stifle the excitement but we have a tendency as a region to go from near suicidal to total weenie. You have to be living here, or you will never have hope except for 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wondering here... was the EURO too dry with the January ice storm? Or did it get it right? check....we have old threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the difference is no one respects you... sorry, i must have missed it. im not here to stifle the excitement but we have a tendency as a region to go from near suicidal to total weenie. I'm just messin. It is still an iffy situ for DC but as long as most areas dont jump in temps unexpectedly they can see something frzn fall. .25" at 250:1 ratios can go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wondering here... was the EURO too dry with the January ice storm? Or did it get it right? I don't remember QPF, but I remember it was the warmest model of the bunch and it trended warmer as we closed in on the final 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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