stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sweet......if only it was reliable Even the GFS clown map gives 2-3". Keep your expectations to an inch, you'll do fine. Car/trash can topper down here will exceed expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Hard not to be optimistic. Now that we are less than 48 hours from the event it seems very likely that we get "some" winter precip no matter what. This is exactly the kind of event that zwyts said we could luck into. Mixed bag sloppy storm but there is nothing glaring that could shut us out of at least a little winter precip. A little colder that modeled upstairs and cad hanging tough = somebody gets to go sledding on saturday. There are two things that can/will ruin the festiveness of this thread. Dr. No is one of them. In about 15 minutes dreams will be crushed or come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 eh.. there has to be a happy middle ground. Maybe another time. The RGEM and I are making sweet love in the broom closet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Keep your expectations to an inch, you'll do fine. Car/trash can topper down here will exceed expectations. I'll take it in a heartbeat, especially if that inch sticks everywhere, which I think will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll take it in a heartbeat, especially if that inch sticks everywhere. Inches usually do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's a terrible model. But it has weenie magic today. Let's go with it. in this winter...any model shows snow is my model of choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 There are two things that can/will ruin the festiveness of this thread. Dr. No is one of them. In about 15 minutes dreams will be crushed or come true. I know this is basically weenie talk but honestly, I think the euro kinda stinks with these events. Weak waves with cad isn't really in the euro's wheelhouse. If I had to guess, euro comes in warmer than all other guidance but it's proabably no biggie. NAM/GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 in this winter...any model shows snow is my model of choice Just this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 in this winter...any model shows snow is my model of choice Thank you Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro doesnt look markedly different with the temp profile than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The precipitation is expected to start out as snow for most, with some light sleet and/or freezing rain across the southern part of the pink contour. As the mid-levels warm, sleet and freezing rain will become dominant in the southern areas, allowing for accumulations 0.1-0.25+ inches. This will be more temporary along the southern edges as the mixed precipitation changes over to just rain mid-morning through the afternoon. The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. The southern areas of snow and mixed precipitation can thank cold air damming (CAD) for their accumulation as sub-freezing temperatures get wedged into the region east of the mountains at the surface. The CAD will eventually erode out of most of the region south of the Mason-Dixon, but when remains a key question, as it determines how much mixed precipitation accumulates and how long it sticks around. I think the models are doing a fairly good job handling the CAD for this event at this range, mostly due to the fact that the disturbance is fairly weak throughout the event and will not be advecting temperatures as much as a more energetic system would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I know this is basically weenie talk but honestly, I think the euro kinda stinks with these events. Weak waves with cad isn't really in the euro's wheelhouse. If I had to guess, euro comes in warmer than all other guidance but it's proabably no biggie. NAM/GFS FTW This should be in the NAM wheelhouse with it's better vertical resolution if the models ahve a similar surface and 850 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro is a big FU but i think its useless now....basically we get a bit of light now and by 12z were at 33 degrees. Not much qpf either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro doesnt look markedly different with the temp profile than 0z it's a hair cooler at 850.. not enough to really matter south of the md/pa border tho -- might actually be a touch warmer at the surface tho. it's pretty dry still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 euro doesnt look markedly different with the temp profile than 0z what was that profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 what was that profile? check your email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The precipitation is expected to start out as snow for most, with some light sleet and/or freezing rain across the southern part of the pink contour. As the mid-levels warm, sleet and freezing rain will become dominant in the southern areas, allowing for accumulations 0.1-0.25+ inches. This will be more temporary along the southern edges as the mixed precipitation changes over to just rain mid-morning through the afternoon. The pink contour indicates where 0.1-0.25+ inches of accumulating sleet and freezing rain is possible. The southern areas of snow and mixed precipitation can thank cold air damming (CAD) for their accumulation as sub-freezing temperatures get wedged into the region east of the mountains at the surface. The CAD will eventually erode out of most of the region south of the Mason-Dixon, but when remains a key question, as it determines how much mixed precipitation accumulates and how long it sticks around. I think the models are doing a fairly good job handling the CAD for this event at this range, mostly due to the fact that the disturbance is fairly weak throughout the event and will not be advecting temperatures as much as a more energetic system would. I would think Mt. Airy / Westminster / Manchester area would pick up 1-2 in this case. The Parrs area is almost always last to changeover with these events. I know I'm splitting hairs with your precip map but I really do think that area could easily hit the 1-2". Surface temps will hold below freezing much longer than dc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The good news about the euro is that it is quicker with the precip...It is snowing by 06Z.....It is not markedly different from 0z run, but slightly colder at the surface.....IAD just going above 32 at 12z......It really isnt much different than the NAM/GFS...a bit warmer...similar with the earlier onset of the precip.....just dry....maybe 0.10" - 0.15" QPF total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 solid concensus from just about every model. Canadian will win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I would think Mt. Airy / Westminster / Manchester area would pick up 1-2 in this case. The Parrs area is almost always last to changeover with these events. I know I'm splitting hairs with your precip map but I really do think that area could easily hit the 1-2". Surface temps will hold below freezing much longer than dc metro. I agree that 1-2" is possible in that area... it will depend on how much QPF falls ahead of the mid-level warm intrusion, which is fairly borderline. I did consider bringing the line down a bit into that area, but I'm holding off for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 solid concensus from just about every model. Canadian will win this one. Canadian hasn't shown snow for us this close in all year I don't believe all we can do now is hope last weekend's trend of pushing things south holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This should be in the NAM wheelhouse with it's better vertical resolution if the models ahve a similar surface and 850 forecast. 12z nam wasn't terribly exciting. I thought it pushed the 850 line a bit too quickly N from hrs 36-48. Probably a pretty good job with 2m temps imo. At least it spit out some snow for most of MD and Nova. We'll see what and if anything changes @ 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just off the top of my head, the NAM hasn't been running too wet with the last few storms we've had, so I don't think the 0.3-0.6" of QPF it's advertising for our area is unreasonable. GFS has maybe 0.2-0.35". RGEM like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The good news about the euro is that it is quicker with the precip...It is snowing by 06Z.....It is not markedly different from 0z run, but slightly colder at the surface.....IAD just going above 32 at 12z......It really isnt much different than the NAM/GFS...a bit warmer...similar with the earlier onset of the precip.....just dry....maybe 0.10" - 0.15" QPF total That is good. The earlier we can get precip in here on Friday night the better off we'll be with colder surface temps at sunrise. Maybe I'll be able snap some pics of a 1/2" of snow coated with .05" of glaze before it melts away during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That is good. The earlier we can get precip in here on Friday night the better off we'll be with colder surface temps at sunrise. Maybe I'll be able snap some pics of a 1/2" of snow coated with .05" of glaze before it melts away during the afternoon. the euro is drier than we want except for N MD.....Phineas is in a good spot....but I like that every model shows it snowing by around midnight or earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just figured out to get HGR on the bufkit site I use. It has 2.6" of predominantly snow for today's 12Z GFS run, but 0.29" of straight freezing rain for MRB with temps below 29 for the duration of the precip. Sounds like my front yard could be snowy, and my back yard icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 this winter makes 2001-2002 look like 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As is usually the case with events like this, folks living along the M-D line will do well, relatively speaking. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if some folks in Southern York and Adams counties pull out 2-3 with an isolated 4 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the euro is drier than we want except for N MD.....Phineas is in a good spot....but I like that every model shows it snowing by around midnight or earlier In all seriousness, I think we're outside of the Euro's range for CAD events....Wes sort of agreed. 18z NAM will be...well, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 JB has 1-3" of snow ending as ice/rain for folks west of the Bay and north of Rt-50/I-66. Not actually too crazy. Better than Roker's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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