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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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Gotchya. Ty.

Pass is just a tad to far N for an obvious snow event. Just 50-75 miles further south would make a world of difference. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers.

the models have been pretty consistent imo with this one.. sorta surprising to me. i think we all know cad does not show up well from range or even 1 day out sometimes but i would have figured it have kept going north a bit. these runs are better in part because the low is weaker than even it was prior tho it was never that strong.

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I haven't followed this as closely as I should have. The low has trended further south all week right?

Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run. Granted it's small steps but for those who are snow starved it is good news. As I said in the Central PA section, this could very well be the

event for those living within 50 miles of Mason-Dixon Line. The shortwave responsible for this storm, as per Sterling and State College, is still over the Pacific Ocean. Thus I would not be surprised to see another shift in the modeling this evening / overnight.

Damn, crippling blizzard in Westminster.

Anyway, this looks to have some potential. As per the usual, areas N/W of the beltways will do the best.

Taking the latest run of the Canadian verbatim, it is a decent run for Carroll County as a whole. Even places further south such as Baltimore, Odenton, Gaithersburg and the DC fare reasonably well. CWG writeup later today?

post-1389-0-80061900-1326991714.png

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the models have been pretty consistent imo with this one.. sorta surprising to me. i think we all know cad does not show up well from range or even 1 day out sometimes but i would have figured it have kept going north a bit. these runs are better in part because the low is weaker than even it was prior tho it was never that strong.

Kinda makes sense. There is really no buckle to the flow. Pretty straightforward stuff roaring in from the pac and b-lining right across the country. Not like vorts dropping out of canada. Those are never resolved well early on. We're lucky there is a bunch of cold air nearby up in the northern plains and also that there is pretty much no spin with the system. I looked at the 500 vorticity maps and there is literally nothing there as the precip rolls through. Pretty much a straight shot of precip with more predictability when it comes to ul temps. The surface is the tricky part with this storm.

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Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run. Granted it's small steps but for those who are snow starved it is good news. As I said in the Central PA section, this could very well be the

event for those living within 50 miles of Mason-Dixon Line. The shortwave responsible for this storm, as per Sterling and State College, is still over the Pacific Ocean. Thus I would not be surprised to see another shift in the modeling this evening / overnight.

Taking the latest run of the Canadian verbatim, it is a decent run for Carroll County as a whole. Even places further south such as Baltimore, Odenton, Gaithersburg and the DC fare reasonably well. CWG writeup later today?

post-1389-0-80061900-1326991714.png

oooo That's me :)

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Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run.

im not sure that's completely true.. almost every run i've seen brought a surface reflection right over this area. the euro maybe a bit more amped but this flow is flat overall.

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Normally I agree but since it supports the other models I will proclaim it right and thank our brothers to the north for providing it.

speaking of our brothers to the north... we need some sne guys to come down here and chuck some weenies

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im not sure that's completely true.. almost every run i've seen brought a surface reflection right over this area. the euro maybe a bit more amped but this flow is flat overall.

Just looking back to yest 12z run it keeps the same path so I agree that track is same. It is just keeping it weaker with each successive run

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Just looking back to yest 12z run it keeps the same path so I agree that track is same. It is just keeping it weaker with each successive run

yep.. there was some differences run to run but each brought a general surface reflection over this region. a few runs keyed in more heavily on a leading wave which developed south of new eng and others on the secondary wave over nc. the euro has been more bullish with a stronger reflection coming in from the west -- guess we'll see if that holds. i glanced at instantweathermaps which has an archive but gathering images sounds like a waste of time.

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1cm = .4" So, I'd call that 3-5". Almost certainly won't happen, but I'm throwing all rationality out the window. I'm humping whatever model shows what I want.

can we trade you for a sne met? :P

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:hug::thumbsup:

Gotta keep the optimism alive...even if it is a mirage.

Hard not to be optimistic. Now that we are less than 48 hours from the event it seems very likely that we get "some" winter precip no matter what. This is exactly the kind of event that zwyts said we could luck into. Mixed bag sloppy storm but there is nothing glaring that could shut us out of at least a little winter precip. A little colder that modeled upstairs and cad hanging tough = somebody gets to go sledding on saturday.

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