Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 maybe a little.. i think most runs have brought it right over the area tho. Gotchya. Ty. Pass is just a tad to far N for an obvious snow event. Just 50-75 miles further south would make a world of difference. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Gotchya. Ty. Pass is just a tad to far N for an obvious snow event. Just 50-75 miles further south would make a world of difference. Oh well, beggars can't be choosers. the models have been pretty consistent imo with this one.. sorta surprising to me. i think we all know cad does not show up well from range or even 1 day out sometimes but i would have figured it have kept going north a bit. these runs are better in part because the low is weaker than even it was prior tho it was never that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I haven't followed this as closely as I should have. The low has trended further south all week right? Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run. Granted it's small steps but for those who are snow starved it is good news. As I said in the Central PA section, this could very well be the event for those living within 50 miles of Mason-Dixon Line. The shortwave responsible for this storm, as per Sterling and State College, is still over the Pacific Ocean. Thus I would not be surprised to see another shift in the modeling this evening / overnight. Damn, crippling blizzard in Westminster. Anyway, this looks to have some potential. As per the usual, areas N/W of the beltways will do the best. Taking the latest run of the Canadian verbatim, it is a decent run for Carroll County as a whole. Even places further south such as Baltimore, Odenton, Gaithersburg and the DC fare reasonably well. CWG writeup later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snapple falling from the sky sounds pretty cool. They need to bring back their Tru Root Beer On topic, I forgot abotu looking here for a day and this is a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the models have been pretty consistent imo with this one.. sorta surprising to me. i think we all know cad does not show up well from range or even 1 day out sometimes but i would have figured it have kept going north a bit. these runs are better in part because the low is weaker than even it was prior tho it was never that strong. Kinda makes sense. There is really no buckle to the flow. Pretty straightforward stuff roaring in from the pac and b-lining right across the country. Not like vorts dropping out of canada. Those are never resolved well early on. We're lucky there is a bunch of cold air nearby up in the northern plains and also that there is pretty much no spin with the system. I looked at the 500 vorticity maps and there is literally nothing there as the precip rolls through. Pretty much a straight shot of precip with more predictability when it comes to ul temps. The surface is the tricky part with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run. Granted it's small steps but for those who are snow starved it is good news. As I said in the Central PA section, this could very well be the event for those living within 50 miles of Mason-Dixon Line. The shortwave responsible for this storm, as per Sterling and State College, is still over the Pacific Ocean. Thus I would not be surprised to see another shift in the modeling this evening / overnight. Taking the latest run of the Canadian verbatim, it is a decent run for Carroll County as a whole. Even places further south such as Baltimore, Odenton, Gaithersburg and the DC fare reasonably well. CWG writeup later today? oooo That's me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just a 30 mile jog to the south of the vort in question could have a huge impact... I'm starting to feel the magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI....the Canadian is a bad model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI....the Canadian is a bad model True to a point... but it does at least support the idea that this "storm" is a bit colder on the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI....the Canadian is a bad model It's a terrible model. But it has weenie magic today. Let's go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, all numerical guidance has shifted the storm center further south with each run. im not sure that's completely true.. almost every run i've seen brought a surface reflection right over this area. the euro maybe a bit more amped but this flow is flat overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FYI....the Canadian is a bad model Normally I agree but since it supports the other models I will proclaim it right and thank our brothers to the north for providing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Normally I agree but since it supports the other models I will proclaim it right and thank our brothers to the north for providing it. speaking of our brothers to the north... we need some sne guys to come down here and chuck some weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z UKMET at 48 along a line from Annapolis to HGR (best guess) and north still below 0c at 850mb hr 42 is 30 or below for DCA/IAD and much of MD... but big warm up by hr 48... as its 40 at EZF and mid 30s at DCA/IAD and freezing line is likely near M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 im not sure that's completely true.. almost every run i've seen brought a surface reflection right over this area. the euro maybe a bit more amped but this flow is flat overall. Just looking back to yest 12z run it keeps the same path so I agree that track is same. It is just keeping it weaker with each successive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 speaking of our brothers to the north... we need some sne guys to come down here and chuck some weenies This one is ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just looking back to yest 12z run it keeps the same path so I agree that track is same. It is just keeping it weaker with each successive run yep.. there was some differences run to run but each brought a general surface reflection over this region. a few runs keyed in more heavily on a leading wave which developed south of new eng and others on the secondary wave over nc. the euro has been more bullish with a stronger reflection coming in from the west -- guess we'll see if that holds. i glanced at instantweathermaps which has an archive but gathering images sounds like a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM/GGEM give MBY nearly 1cm of liquid equivalent as snow. I don't care how bad of a model it is, I'm hittin' that hard Actually...maybe more than 1cm, I was taking the lowest value in a particular contour level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM/GGEM give MBY nearly 1cm of liquid equivalent as snow. I don't care how bad of a model it is, I'm hittin' that hard Actually...maybe more than 1cm, I was taking the lowest value in a particular contour level. 4 inches of snow, eh? Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would you say that's about 2-4 of snow/sleet? RGEM/GGEM give MBY nearly 1cm of liquid equivalent as snow. I don't care how bad of a model it is, I'm hittin' that hard Actually...maybe more than 1cm, I was taking the lowest value in a particular contour level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM even throws DC a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would you say that's about 2-4 of snow/sleet? 1cm = .4" So, I'd call that 3-5". Almost certainly won't happen, but I'm throwing all rationality out the window. I'm humping whatever model shows what I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 1cm = .4" So, I'd call that 3-5". Almost certainly won't happen, but I'm throwing all rationality out the window. I'm humping whatever model shows what I want. can we trade you for a sne met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1cm = .4" So, I'd call that 3-5". Almost certainly won't happen, but I'm throwing all rationality out the window. I'm humping whatever model shows what I want. Where did you find GGEM snow QPF totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 can we trade you for a sne met? Haterz gon' hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where did you find GGEM snow QPF totals? Just added up from here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1cm = .4" So, I'd call that 3-5". Almost certainly won't happen, but I'm throwing all rationality out the window. I'm humping whatever model shows what I want. Gotta keep the optimism alive...even if it is a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Haterz gon' hate. eh.. there has to be a happy middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just added up from here. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Sweet......if only it was reliable Even the GFS clown map gives 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Gotta keep the optimism alive...even if it is a mirage. Hard not to be optimistic. Now that we are less than 48 hours from the event it seems very likely that we get "some" winter precip no matter what. This is exactly the kind of event that zwyts said we could luck into. Mixed bag sloppy storm but there is nothing glaring that could shut us out of at least a little winter precip. A little colder that modeled upstairs and cad hanging tough = somebody gets to go sledding on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.