Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 6z GFS ens mean and members say that the weekend is not a lost cause. The Euro not much. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Hey, we backed into the last one right? This one doesn't look like we'll have a good hp to work with. A 1020 around cape cod aint gonna do it. However, CAD already showing up at the surface and 850's. Maybe another sloppy miracle in the works? If any type of hp starts showing up around se canada or upstate ny then we may be in business. Clipper type system comes after too. Passes to our north but it's down the road a bit. Maybe trough behind weekend's system digs a little deeper and the 500 energy digs south of us. I got my weenie glasses on today and perfect scenarios are clear as day. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. The latest GFS is now more in line with the earlier ens mean. Low is stronger, closer to coast. It has slowed the 500 low from its 6z run. The problem seems that if its too slow, too deep, too early, it sends the low up the piedmont like 0z did. Too fast, too weak, sends it out to sea. Seems like we need perfect timing to stay cold enough with enough precip. Would seem to be worth watching at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Any snow setup this winter will likely never look great or classic in any sense of the word. We will have to thread the needle and get a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Help me learn something here. We need that phase to occur pretty far east don't we? Otherwise, we end up with a low pretty far to the west? If its a small event we're looking for wouldn't we want an unphased setup sending a low just to our southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. I don't see a major snowstorm but a couple of ens membes do suggest that the system is worth watching. Upper lows that get lost over the south are wild cards to a certain extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I don't see a major snowstorm but a couple of ens membes do suggest that the system is worth watching. Upper lows that get lost over the south are wild cards to a certain extent. The next panel of those looked even better. I like it when we have a low pressure moving south of us, close enough to throw in some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I wish we could trade hp's from Friday night's event for this event. Either way, we seem to be having some luck with marginal setups lately. It was fun watching Friday's event trend better for the days leading up. It would be fun having a legitimate threat to track during a week that was forecasted to have highs in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Help me learn something here. We need that phase to occur pretty far east don't we? Otherwise, we end up with a low pretty far to the west? If its a small event we're looking for wouldn't we want an unphased setup sending a low just to our southeast? Not sure what "far east" means but maybe the mid-lower MS valley or a bit east. At least that's what my mind's eye imagines. It's a long shot but if the closed low (assuming it does close) hangs back longer than the models think, which often happens, it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Euro has the weekend storm, but it looks like NW burbs score based on the snowfall map. Rain in the cities and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 only in this winter can we get a 996mb low bombing 50 miles east of Ocean City on January 28th and it be a driving rainstorm....though as depicted it does changeover for a 1-3" event for Leesburg, MRB etc and maybe here in DC I would see a brief period of snow at the end.... We have to keep tracking this one....maybe the timing will get better or it will trend colder as we get closer.....Another flawed event seems like the most probable this winter, so maybe a rain to snow event is in the cards.... There's enough uncertainty to keep watching. Because of the lack of cold air, for you and I it's an uphill battle but at least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 only in this winter can we get a 996mb low bombing 50 miles east of Ocean City on January 28th and it be a driving rainstorm....though as depicted it does changeover for a 1-3" event for Leesburg, MRB etc and maybe here in DC I would see a brief period of snow at the end.... We have to keep tracking this one....maybe the timing will get better or it will trend colder as we get closer.....Another flawed event seems like the most probable this winter, so maybe a rain to snow event is in the cards.... It happend about 6 times in 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Glad to see the Euro joining the "interesting" party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter. Matt, did you guys in DC get anything out of the late Jan storm that simply hammered the southern and central Apps. I got about 18 inches from that one, Boone NC got at least 3 feet, and Canaan WV set the daily WV snow record at somewhere around 35 inches. That was a highly elevation dependent storm though, at least in the area I lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 It did but some of those were further inland tracks. Plus We have more arctic air around this winter. That winter kind of stands on its own because of the strength of the niño. I didn't care as much. I think I got 2.5" the whole winter. maybe it's just me, but it seems last year started the trend with the Euro depiction of 12Z (perfect storm track, not cold enough) or maybe it's just a 70's NINA thing that has cunningly taken over our winter climate for a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Man that thing is close to a phase. If the timing works out perfectly for this it could be a big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Not jumping the gun, but the GFS in the long range is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Man that thing is close to a phase. No it's not. If the timing works out perfectly for this it could be a big one After working the phasing into perfect timing, you come up with a very, VERY low probability event at this point. No need to worry about such a scenario at this time. Not jumping the gun, but the GFS in the long range is interesting a fantasy. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out. Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ellinwood, I mean GFS looks much cooler in the long run then when I looked at it last. I find interesting compared to the real warm look I had seen a short time ago. Backwards and forwards between warm & cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Ellinwood, I mean GFS looks much cooler in the long run then when I looked at it last. I find interesting compared to the real warm look I had seen a short time ago. Backwards and forwards between warm & cool. You should have seen it several days ago... it's been flip-flopping for almost a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 idk- I kinda like the euro for the weekend. Nice track. I'll take my chances with everything else. No optimal hp to the north but it's a good time of year. 850 winds are wnw @ hr 120 and northerly @ hr 144. I'm sure the surface is warm but well see how it plays out. Another system to watch around Feb 1st. Right now it tracks west but that is a function of the trough. Euro shows the trough being really sharp and digging way south. I would think it's more likely to broader and not as deep but who knows. At least it's something to watch. The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. Wes, isn't it true that the ens members individually don't have as much skill as the operational itself. I know that at longer ranges the ens would have more skill, but wouldn't that decrease as an event got closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The eruo ens mean doesn't much like the euro which proably means the it is a low probability event but probably is still worth watching. otoh, they were the same ensembles that advertised a slam-dunk heat wave by now this has been a tough winter on everybody and everything in the wx prediction business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Yes it has been a wild LRF this winter. But overall crappy winter for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 18z snatched our sw low. Nothing left to create the weekend storm. I guess this story gets continued ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Good analogy...that was like a telegraphed KU storm turning into 25 and sunny at the last minute. So, please tell me there's a telegraphed KU coming...tomorrow, preferably, to cheer me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 What is the GFS saying this late hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 What is the GFS saying this late hour? says take a nap through early next week at least.. only out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro has a 1-3" snow event next Sunday That's interesting, but a switch from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Looks like much uncertainty for the upcoming weekend. The 6z GFS is starting to bring the storm back, and it looks like the ens very much supports it based on the mean, but I can't see the individual runs. The Euro seems to have pushed the whole thing back a day, and now takes the low further off of the coast than it did before. I guess those who know more will chip in with their thoughts later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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