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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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plus the low is uber weak at this pt.. not even closing isobars on the ncep maps except briefly on nam

That's a darn good thing too. GFS showing very light e-se flow @ the surface. That is not ideal at all but considering how weak the low is it could easily end up being more n-ne. A bit of a surface flow battleground between the weak low and hp to the n and nw.

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12z GGEM has snow by 04z (some moderate?) to about 08z... then sleet for about an hour... and then heavy heavy ice... ouch (DC area)

MD still snow at 12z, including HGR/BWI

Well, that's it then, I'm riding this model.

Seriously, we aren't very far away from decent snow on practically every model. We just need to be a tad lucky. This time it doesn't have to be a miracle. Maybe the EC delivers a two year past due Christmas present in a couple of hours.

BTW, great to see the positivity in here. Hope it lasts. It's more fun to be hopeful than realistic anyway.

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Not too shabby

Friday Night: A chance of snow after 10pm, mixing with freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind at 8 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Freezing rain and sleet likely before 10am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. East wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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I haven't followed this as closely as I should have. The low has trended further south all week right?

maybe a little.. i think most runs have brought it right over the area tho.

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