Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12z Euro's got two chances for wintry precip... the 26th-27th as mentioned earlier, with another coastal on the 28th-29th. The 26th-27th system starts off under CAD as the surface low transfers from the southern Apps to the coast east of Delaware. A weak area of high pressure is sitting over southern Quebec. The 28th-29th system is an awesome Georgia -> Carolinas -> Virginia Beach -> Cape Cod track. No High to the north... instead there's a low pressure center over James Bay. 850s look better for this system compared to the first one. Alas in 12 hours it could be gone. Perhaps this storm we just got done with is a bit of a tide turner (not for anything major, but maybe a few more nickel and dime events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Alas in 12 hours it could be gone. Perhaps this storm we just got done with is a bit of a tide turner (not for anything major, but maybe a few more nickel and dime events). climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I kind of wrote off Thursday's event.....the models have had it for a couple days now and it has never looked good....Maybe I shouldnt be punting it this early For me, that's the one I find interesting. I guess its because the Euro had it last night, and then improved it at 12z and kept generally the same time frame. It looks better for areas NW of DC than DC, but, even assuming the event happens, lots can change like it did with the last one. About 3 of the GFS members have a similar system. I guess we'll see in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 so we score next weekend?...I got 7" in 2007-08..>lowest in 10 winters....If we cant top that we are pathetic maybe... i guess i should have looked before giving SPI a 1. it's definitely a lot easier to fall into an event during this period than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It's kind of sketchy... northern stream digging into the Midwest. Odds are against it. I don't see it as being a viable threat for us, up to the north yes but having low pressure over the lakes and then hoping that a northern stream vort will somehow dig to our south is a tough sell at least to me. The later threat looks better but doesn't have any cold air to work with. That far out, I guess it could change so I wouldn't completely write it off but think it is a long shot as it too has low pressure to our north instead of high so it probably is going to have a hard time holding cold air in providing there is any to hold in which looks doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thursday does not look promising ....But next weekend the pattern isnt that bad...it may not be falling into anything...But it is still day 7-10....no reason to bump up the SPI...I think this idea that we will lock into a good pattern at some point is not something anyone should be waiting for...though it could happen hoiw often do we get a good storm with a low up north like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The bar is still really low. 2 inches of just snow would be a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 hoiw often do we get a good storm with a low up north like that? I don''t think either threat looks good, lower pressure up towards the lakes without having cold air in place ahead of it is not usually a winning pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The bar is still really low. 2 inches of just snow would be a big event. That and I think everyone got giddy from last night's 0.50" to 1.5" inch event but it at least had a nice high with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not often. Going back almost 10 years now, me and Mitchnick always used to cringe when we saw a lakes low on a model run depicting a storm. But I don't think anyone is hoping for anything good. 80%+ of our snow events are small flawed t-2". And we are in the midst of a warm crappy winter. Why focus on getting a "good" event when in all likelihood we will get either 0 or 1 this entire winter? Last night was not a big deal but I still enjoyed it. I'd happily take as many t-2" events a we can get. True. Some snow is better than none.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Not often. Going back almost 10 years now, me and Mitchnick always used to cringe when we saw a lakes low on a model run depicting a storm. But I don't think anyone is hoping for anything good. 80%+ of our snow events are small flawed t-2". And we are in the midst of a warm crappy winter. Why focus on getting a "good" event when in all likelihood we will get either 0 or 1 this entire winter? Last night was not a big deal but I still enjoyed it. I'd happily take as many t-2" events a we can get. I'll preface this by saying I wouldn't dare debate anyone here about weather forecasting, but, in trying to be positive, I have to point out that the low in the lakes is about 300 miles further northwest on the 12 run (EC) than it was on the 0z, the digging energy is about the same in the midwest, a 1024 high is sitting about Montreal (last night was 1028 in about the same spot), and the flow is blocked a little bit around Nova Scotia. Are none of those things positive? And, of course, I'm not talking storm here. I'm like you guys in looking for small winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Monday morning... now THAT's a CAD wedge! Around 54 degrees at 950mb... 36 at the surface. 18 degree inversion in 50mb. The sounding is for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Light freezing rain showers a possibilibity tomorrow night if there's enough moisture around... freezing fog also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This is very close to the Euro solution for the same time. Only that the low in the lakes is about 600 miles further NW than depicted here. The GFS leaves open the possibility for next weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This is very close to the Euro solution for the same time. Only that the low in the lakes is about 600 miles further NW than depicted here. The GFS leaves open the possibility for next weekend too. Clown maps put 1-2" down from DC northward by hour 114-120 (betwee 6z to 18z on the 26th). 12z ECM has similar totals on its clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 but damn the torch got owned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here Ditto. but damn the torch got owned A rare event for us... it's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The 28th-29th possible event looks interesting on the 18z GFS ensemble... gonna have to look at the individual members on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Clown maps put 1-2" down from DC northward by hour 114-120 (betwee 6z to 18z on the 26th). 12z ECM has similar totals on its clown map. i was wrong in this range with the event this weekend but i'd be really surprised if that one produced here I think it is at least interesting that the two models have solutions that are this similar at exactly the same time range. That doesn't do anything to increase the chances of them being right, but it is noteworthy. I don't put any real hopes in 5 day solutions. Last night I had more than reasonable hope of a couple of inches of snow and even that fell through. So, if this fizzles out over the next day or two, I won't be surprised at all. But one thing, the models surely are programmed with the knowledge needed to create a forecast. If either of these models put out solutions within 5 days that are only a remote possibility, then I don't think I'd consider that a very worthwhile computer program. So, if the models are programmed with ample knowledge, which I'm sure they are, and they don't typically spit out the 1 in a 1000 outcome resulting from input data, which I'm sure they don't, then the soluton they are showing is at least a "reasonable" possibility given the quality of the data ingested. However, for whatever reason, these models sure do have a knack of spitting out a snow possibility at these ranges for the NoVa, DC, MD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Gonna be interesting to see just how high the temps climb tomorrow. Could be enough ice tomorrow night to at least make roads slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. I love me a torch as much as anyone, but last night gave me a little tingle and made me want some more snow. As Ellinwood said, perhaps it's a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. I love how DT doesn't mention his failed massive warmth post starting the 21st -27th LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The torch collapsed so hard. With the way this winter has gone, I'm actually shocked. Poor Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The models are pretty bad in a Nina outside 3-4 days. We "ugly" our way to our seasonal total almost every winter so I don't think people should be so bearish especially when snow climo is the best it gets over the next couple weeks. Chances are most threats won't come to fruition but they all are worth keeping an eye on. DC is an awful place to only be a fan of moderate to large storms. That said, since I moved to DC proper in the fall of 1998 I have gotten at least one 3"+ storm every single winter so 13 for 13 and I am 12 for 13 on 4" events. So it isn't like we live in Atlanta either. But we probably live in the most frustrating place to like snow in the world bar none. Was '08/'09 a mega-fail winter in your mind, or does one single 6"+ storm compensate for a really crappy seasonal total? For me, that winter was bad but not in the "worst" category- despite the final season total-because we did get the largest snowstorm in three winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 The 6z GFS ens mean and members say that the weekend is not a lost cause. The Euro not much. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Next weekend is worth watching. We need the low to close over Texas and hold back about 24 hours, then phase with the northern stream. Then we'll be in business. We'll see. Guess there is always hope but after looking over the last 24 hrs of the GFS it seems that it is being more and more progressive with that low. Yesterdays 12Z run had it sitting in the deep southwest into Mexico and with each subsequent run it has ejected it quicker and quicker until todays 06 has it just north of the Miss delta at the same time frame. Of course the last 24 hours of runs has been slightly quicker with the energy diving down from Canada and driving it farther south so I guess that is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 GFS is trying with the weekend thing...no real cold air around, but it bears watching I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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