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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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I say we crank up a storm thread just for this weekend. Give a big FU to past history and say this one works FOR us, for a change.

actually the last storm thread worked just fine... overperformer even

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Just hug the GGEM and you do not have to worry about a shift south, it is much easier on your nerves that way.

Being 30 miles north of the Mason Dixon line sometimes has it's advantages. Come on up and watch the game here. You will just have to ignore all the Steelers stuff hanging in my bar room. ;) I am a Washington Capitals fan though!

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"Preliminary SNOWFALL calls. Very tough forecast as described below but here they are, if you want another town/city just ask, final call will be tomorrow Mid-day. BWI-0.5" DC-coating, Frederick to Westminster-Hereford-Bel Air: 1.5". Southern PA-2-3". Confidence in this is low as of now due to uncertainty of cold air damming and the possibility of more mixing with mid atmopshere layers. Again in most areas there will be some ice after the initial snow and then some light rain or drizzle for some areas too."

Thats my call on my weather page...I dont have thoughts on the ice accum yet

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OK, lets move on. Looking ahead, the srefs would say that portions of the area deal with frozen precip again tomorrow night, most likely freezing rain from what I can see. Then, and I have to say this is interesting, the Euro has snow breaking out in parts of WV around hour 150 and then exploding in PA. The Euro stuff is always hard to make out so its hard to tell exactly what this is, but it does bear watching. The Euro and its ens. both develop what looks like a strengthening NAO as we head toward Feb. Who knows, good times ahead?

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12z Euro's got two chances for wintry precip... the 26th-27th as mentioned earlier, with another coastal on the 28th-29th.

The 26th-27th system starts off under CAD as the surface low transfers from the southern Apps to the coast east of Delaware. A weak area of high pressure is sitting over southern Quebec.

The 28th-29th system is an awesome Georgia -> Carolinas -> Virginia Beach -> Cape Cod track. No High to the north... instead there's a low pressure center over James Bay. 850s look better for this system compared to the first one.

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