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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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12z NAM BUFKIT for BWI

120121/0700Z 43 12007KT 30.2F SNPL

120121/0800Z 44 11007KT 30.0F SNPL

120121/0900Z 45 11007KT 30.9F FZRA

120121/1000Z 46 10007KT 31.5F FZRA

120121/1100Z 47 09006KT 32.2F RAIN

20121/1200Z 48 08004KT 32.5F RAIN

120121/1300Z 49 05003KT 32.9F

120121/1400Z 50 01003KT 33.4F

120121/1500Z 51 01004KT 34.0F

120121/1600Z 52 01003KT 33.6F RAIN

120121/1700Z 53 36003KT 33.3F RAIN

120121/1800Z 54 35004KT 33.6F RAIN

120121/1900Z 55 35004KT 34.5F RAIN

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Looks better, but I'm going to use the "CAD is underforecast" method.

Even though we tag it as a weenie phrase most of the time it's true more often than not. Especially when we are right in the transition fringe on the models. IIRC we almost always end up colder at the surface by a degree or 2. 850's on up though don't vary as much. Still, we're on the fringe of the type of event that almost always gives us more wintry precip than modeled.

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Thanks. Flow seems to have more of a SE component though? I thought the SE flow was what allowed damming against the mtns?

http://raleighwx.ame...mpsNAMLoop.html

Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't see SW winds, but my eyes suck pretty bad.

You're right... I had switched over to the 06z GFS sounding and forgot that I was looking at that and not the 12z NAM when writing the post.

The decoupling thing still stands, but obviously it would be less dramatic with an easterly component at the surface versus a westerly component.

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Even though we tag it as a weenie phrase most of the time it's true more often than not. Especially when we are right in the transition fringe on the models. IIRC we almost always end up colder at the surface by a degree or 2. 850's on up though don't vary as much. Still, we're on the fringe of the type of event that almost always gives us more wintry precip than modeled.

plus the low is uber weak at this pt.. not even closing isobars on the ncep maps except briefly on nam

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