WVclimo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS looks a little better for the Thurs-night-friday "event". Also portraying quite a rapid temp drop behind the front. In these types of winters, you take any small victories. Dynamic cold fronts with sharp temp drops and strong winds with their passage are one of my favorite types of weather. A few snow showers make them even more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In these types of winters, you take any small victories. Dynamic cold fronts with sharp temp drops and strong winds with their passage are one of my favorite types of weather. A few snow showers make them even more exciting. Couldn't agree more, I've always been a huge fan of dynamic cold fronts, the opportunity for snow is just icing on the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro looks to win out on the Sunday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro looks to win out on the Sunday clipper. the euro wins out on everything except d 5-7 one run fantasy hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yes...I realize heights are too low to the west of the blocking and it may be transient and it is day 10 and the PAC sucks Pretty bad, but not unexpected. Even a marginally improved Atlantic can't save this pig (too much else going wrong). January is lost---except for some cold over the next 7-10 days. In a couple of weeks, we can turn our attention to the evolving pattern for Feb and hopefully better times. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS and its ensembles over the past 3 runs really weaken the PV to a little minuscule circulation during week 2, Euro now trying to do the same thing. This upcoming warming could be the final blow but even so the -PNA ridge that helped initiate it could work against us for another 2-3 weeks before the pattern improves. But the deep spinning negative looks to leave east Canada finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 No snow on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 None o.nly rain!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull were in April. yes, it was Redoubt in Alaska that was the one near the Pole in early/mid 09' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wes, thanks so much for the link you provided earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of things, I am thinking that the back side burst of snow associated with the current system may be more impressive than I initially thoughti it would be. 500MB cut-off low is the wrong track for us (Western PA) so I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two, but by looking at the 12 hour radar loop, Snow really blossomed over the last few hours... pretty impressive. The 6Z NAM intializes the vort max over kansas. Has it centered over the IL/ KS border at hour 12. Given the current confirguration of the 500 MB Vort Max and extent of the Snow on the radar right now over IL. I am thinking that this sytem may be an over performer in terms of moisture output and give us a little more than expected on the SE side of the vort max track/ passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This can't be good. I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'd say the chances of getting any snow tonight would be about zero based on the NAM. I guess you can't ever rule out a surprise, but in my short history of living here, these never seem to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 zwyts forgot to mention that day 9-10 of Euro shows snowstorm for us(barely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 zwyts forgot to mention that day 9-10 of Euro shows snowstorm for us(barely) would be about 3-5 inches of snow turning to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 also shows some snow on the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. I'd agree that the predictions have been highly variable and erratic over the past six weeks, but the current position is accurate. I was alluding to the fact that it's not a good thing that it's in the COD and doing another "lap around the cul-de-sac" (ala zwyts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. Stolen from the mid range thread on the main page The GEFS is terrible at forecasting the MJO. If you want to forecast the MJO using models, the ECMWF ensemble and weekly models are the only ones that have shown any skill beyond 1 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'd agree that the predictions have been highly variable and erratic over the past six weeks, but the current position is accurate. I was alluding to the fact that it's not a good thing that it's in the COD and doing another "lap around the cul-de-sac" (ala zwyts). Stolen from the mid range thread on the main page Agree with both of you. I was actually referring to the three models in that particular picture. Those have consistently shown the MJO to make significant progress into phase 7 and beyond (until recently), and they have consistently been way off. Seems that from what I've read here, the MJO isn't very easily forecast. I wasn't trying to make any prediction of my own, just that those three models don't seem to be the ones to hang a prediction off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Gotta love a 1030 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of things, I am thinking that the back side burst of snow associated with the current system may be more impressive than I initially thoughti it would be. 500MB cut-off low is the wrong track for us (Western PA) so I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two, but by looking at the 12 hour radar loop, Snow really blossomed over the last few hours... pretty impressive. The 6Z NAM intializes the vort max over kansas. Has it centered over the IL/ KS border at hour 12. Given the current confirguration of the 500 MB Vort Max and extent of the Snow on the radar right now over IL. I am thinking that this sytem may be an over performer in terms of moisture output and give us a little more than expected on the SE side of the vort max track/ passage. I think it will be better than what one would think (a dusting up to .5") looking at the qpf maps only because of the decent ratios (-8C or colder from what I see) otoh, with the wind blowing, it could easily evaporate quickly even if I'm right, and I don't have much confidence I'll be asleep anyway, so I can always claim it snowed like he!! whether it did or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If nothing else, 12Z GFS keeping it noticeably colder next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If nothing else, 12Z GFS keeping it noticeably colder next week. It actually gives us a snowstorm look at 216 hrs or so. It's much different with the siberian high and actually builds a new ridge over AK farther east than the old run. I'd wait for the ensembles to come in to see what they think but it does show that this pattern isn't that stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Gotta love a 1030 low. Snow in Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It actually gives us a snowstorm look at 216 hrs or so. It's much different with the siberian high and actually builds a new ridge over AK farther east than the old run. I'd wait for the ensembles to come in to see what they think but it does show that this pattern isn't that stable. ...And something worth watching too after hr 324, but I guess I'm a for commenting on anything that far into the future. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 winter's back.. at least until the euro or the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wes, GFS shows a parade of lows rolling over top of a ridge out west and some sort of troughiness in the east though at least 192 hours or so. Any chance some of that energy ends up underneath us? Long lost overrunning event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It actually gives us a snowstorm look at 216 hrs or so. It's much different with the siberian high and actually builds a new ridge over AK farther east than the old run. I'd wait for the ensembles to come in to see what they think but it does show that this pattern isn't that stable. Though it was a huge mess and knocked oit a lot of people's power... I would not mind a repeat of Jan 2011 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Though it was a huge mess and knocked oit a lot of people's power... I would not mind a repeat of Jan 2011 snowstorm I'll take a repeat of that too - since it snowed more where I am now than where I was.... though the power outage thing I can do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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