TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The 00z NAM is an improvment from the past few runs I'd believe. Confirmation from a red tagger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think that that this winter got off to a bad start with nearly everyone expecting a cold December. When that outcome failed miserably, the rush to a pattern change was longed for----starting in mid-December and popping up every few days after that. In reality, the level-headed weather enthusiasts/mets have never really bought into the pattern change hype and that spoke volumes (to me , anyway). Now, the next 10 days will surely feature some cold, but it's not a particularly exciting pattern. It also looks very likely that January will go out very mild. Remember that seeing pattern changes several weeks in advance is not easy at all. In mid January 2010, I remember a post by Wes over at Eastern that focused on the terrible January pattern in the mid-atlantic at that time and that prospects for snow for the rest of Jan 2010 looked dim. However, it was in that post that Wes was starting to see signs of a change to a much better Feb( strat warming/neg NAO development/negative EPO). Now mind you, this was just 2 weeks before the onset of one of the most prolific patterns we have seen around here and the signs were just emerging (as seen by one of the best metorological minds that I know of). It was then that I knew that better times were ahead (but I am sure that Wes would admit that even he could have not invisioned the magnitude of the historic Feb outcome from 2-3 weeks away). Just to be clear, I am not in any way saying that this Feb is going to be anything like Feb 2010. I'm just saying that the calls for Winter's death needs to be put into perspective. Just because January is likely to turn mild again, doesn't mean it can't snow in Feb/March. So maybe that optomistic post from Wes never comes this winter, but it may...... MDstorm Actually, I did think we'd see a second KU even when we were talking about the pattern being bad in Jan of that year. Don Sutherland was thinking the same thing and was also thinking the pattern would switch back even when the pattern looked bleak. That year we had a easterly qbo, el nino, low solar cycle, which all together favored blocking and more chances at getting a SSW warming event than during a typical la nina. the expectation was for another round with strongly negative NAO because usually when it is as strong as it was in Dec 2009, it usually comes back for awhile. Did I expect it to be that historic, no but I and lots of other mets thought the winter would be snowier than normal. I guess I'm saying that this year is different. Yes it can change but but if we wait another 2 weeks we've pretty much lost all of Jan and the MJO looks like it might be heading back towards phase 4. If so, then we have that to deal with so we will need the AO and NAO to both be negative. Could happen. Right now a pattern change will have to be really obvious on the models before I'll buy it. I'll probably be late pulling the trigger but that's better than waffling back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Actually, I did think we'd see a second KU even when we were talking about the pattern being bad in Jan of that year. Don Sutherland was thinking the same thing and was also thinking the pattern would switch back even when the pattern looked bleak. That year we had a easterly qbo, el nino, low solar cycle, which all together favored blocking and more chances at getting a SSW warming event than during a typical la nina. the expectation was for another round with strongly negative NAO because usually when it is as strong as it was in Dec 2009, it usually comes back for awhile. Did I expect it to be that historic, no but I and lots of other mets thought the winter would be snowier than normal. I guess I'm saying that this year is different. Yes it can change but but if we wait another 2 weeks we've pretty much lost all of Jan and the MJO looks like it might be heading back towards phase 4. If so, then we have that to deal with so we will need the AO and NAO to both be negative. Could happen. Right now a pattern change will have to be really obvious on the models before I'll buy it. I'll probably be late pulling the trigger but that's better than waffling back and forth. though not uniformly agreed/understood, there was that volcanoe in Iceland which "may" have helped the staggeringly low AO proveable or not, it certainly didn't hurt us, did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The 00z NAM is an improvment from the past few runs I'd believe. Confirmation from a red tagger? Not a red tagger but it has more QPF south of 40N, still not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS looks a little better for the Thurs-night-friday "event". Also portraying quite a rapid temp drop behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS looks a little better for the Thurs-night-friday "event". Also portraying quite a rapid temp drop behind the front. In these types of winters, you take any small victories. Dynamic cold fronts with sharp temp drops and strong winds with their passage are one of my favorite types of weather. A few snow showers make them even more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In these types of winters, you take any small victories. Dynamic cold fronts with sharp temp drops and strong winds with their passage are one of my favorite types of weather. A few snow showers make them even more exciting. Couldn't agree more, I've always been a huge fan of dynamic cold fronts, the opportunity for snow is just icing on the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro looks to win out on the Sunday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro looks to win out on the Sunday clipper. the euro wins out on everything except d 5-7 one run fantasy hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro has the best -NAO look I have seen in any run so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Euro has the best -NAO look I have seen in any run so far... yes...I realize heights are too low to the west of the blocking and it may be transient and it is day 10 and the PAC sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yes...I realize heights are too low to the west of the blocking and it may be transient and it is day 10 and the PAC sucks Pretty bad, but not unexpected. Even a marginally improved Atlantic can't save this pig (too much else going wrong). January is lost---except for some cold over the next 7-10 days. In a couple of weeks, we can turn our attention to the evolving pattern for Feb and hopefully better times. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS and its ensembles over the past 3 runs really weaken the PV to a little minuscule circulation during week 2, Euro now trying to do the same thing. This upcoming warming could be the final blow but even so the -PNA ridge that helped initiate it could work against us for another 2-3 weeks before the pattern improves. But the deep spinning negative looks to leave east Canada finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Pretty bad, but not unexpected. Even a marginally improved Atlantic can't save this pig (too much else going wrong). January is lost---except for some cold over the next 7-10 days. In a couple of weeks, we can turn our attention to the evolving pattern for Feb and hopefully better times. MDstorm well....the entire country is a torch, but I wonder if that might initiate changes in the Pacific?....I think we all understand that a serious pattern change/reversal is not a quick process, but I am still not convinced January 20-30 is lost....That is one of our most active periods..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 No snow on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 None o.nly rain!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull were in April. yes, it was Redoubt in Alaska that was the one near the Pole in early/mid 09' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wes, thanks so much for the link you provided earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of things, I am thinking that the back side burst of snow associated with the current system may be more impressive than I initially thoughti it would be. 500MB cut-off low is the wrong track for us (Western PA) so I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two, but by looking at the 12 hour radar loop, Snow really blossomed over the last few hours... pretty impressive. The 6Z NAM intializes the vort max over kansas. Has it centered over the IL/ KS border at hour 12. Given the current confirguration of the 500 MB Vort Max and extent of the Snow on the radar right now over IL. I am thinking that this sytem may be an over performer in terms of moisture output and give us a little more than expected on the SE side of the vort max track/ passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This can't be good. I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'd say the chances of getting any snow tonight would be about zero based on the NAM. I guess you can't ever rule out a surprise, but in my short history of living here, these never seem to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 zwyts forgot to mention that day 9-10 of Euro shows snowstorm for us(barely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 zwyts forgot to mention that day 9-10 of Euro shows snowstorm for us(barely) would be about 3-5 inches of snow turning to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 also shows some snow on the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. I'd agree that the predictions have been highly variable and erratic over the past six weeks, but the current position is accurate. I was alluding to the fact that it's not a good thing that it's in the COD and doing another "lap around the cul-de-sac" (ala zwyts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I've watched those models for 6 weeks now and they are never right. Stolen from the mid range thread on the main page The GEFS is terrible at forecasting the MJO. If you want to forecast the MJO using models, the ECMWF ensemble and weekly models are the only ones that have shown any skill beyond 1 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'd agree that the predictions have been highly variable and erratic over the past six weeks, but the current position is accurate. I was alluding to the fact that it's not a good thing that it's in the COD and doing another "lap around the cul-de-sac" (ala zwyts). Stolen from the mid range thread on the main page Agree with both of you. I was actually referring to the three models in that particular picture. Those have consistently shown the MJO to make significant progress into phase 7 and beyond (until recently), and they have consistently been way off. Seems that from what I've read here, the MJO isn't very easily forecast. I wasn't trying to make any prediction of my own, just that those three models don't seem to be the ones to hang a prediction off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Gotta love a 1030 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By the looks of things, I am thinking that the back side burst of snow associated with the current system may be more impressive than I initially thoughti it would be. 500MB cut-off low is the wrong track for us (Western PA) so I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two, but by looking at the 12 hour radar loop, Snow really blossomed over the last few hours... pretty impressive. The 6Z NAM intializes the vort max over kansas. Has it centered over the IL/ KS border at hour 12. Given the current confirguration of the 500 MB Vort Max and extent of the Snow on the radar right now over IL. I am thinking that this sytem may be an over performer in terms of moisture output and give us a little more than expected on the SE side of the vort max track/ passage. I think it will be better than what one would think (a dusting up to .5") looking at the qpf maps only because of the decent ratios (-8C or colder from what I see) otoh, with the wind blowing, it could easily evaporate quickly even if I'm right, and I don't have much confidence I'll be asleep anyway, so I can always claim it snowed like he!! whether it did or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.