stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 its working...positive vibes people..positive vibes. 12z NAM trending colder at the surface. I abhor ice, but at this point, it's like Matt's 3am at the bar analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway). See thats what I was thinking, thanks Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 its working...positive vibes people..positive vibes. 12z NAM trending colder at the surface. I abhor ice, but at this point, it's like Matt's 3am at the bar analogy. NAM might be too quick with the precip, but it would start as snow tomorrow night at say midnight and probably change over fairly quickly, but could lay down 1/4-1/2" snow/sleet and then a glaze on top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? At this rate, maybe, if we keep Randy's positive vibes theory going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? for you maybe a bit more at the beginning?.....It has happened before but it would have to be pretty big model failure for anyone to be snow by mid to late morning Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway). Thanks. Flow seems to have more of a SE component though? I thought the SE flow was what allowed damming against the mtns? http://raleighwx.ame...mpsNAMLoop.html Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't see SW winds, but my eyes suck pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 for you maybe a bit more at the beginning?.....It has happened before but it would have to be pretty big model failure for anyone to be snow by mid to late morning Saturday Unless either the randy train rips models to shreds or 2/25 miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is a perfect scenario for LWX...They can wait until tomorrow PM to issue advisories if they are needed...weekend and no effect on rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Unless either the randy train rips models to shreds or 2/25 miracle. 2/25 had a -NAO and a lot more precip...I don't really see a scenario right now where we could get a lot of snow....the analogy doesn't really make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2/25 had a -NAO and a lot more precip...I don't really see a scenario right now where we could get a lot of snow....the analogy doesn't really make sense Not a lot of snow, just a larger percentage of snow. I know its unlikely, but hey what the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2/25 had a -NAO and a lot more precip...I don't really see a scenario right now where we could get a lot of snow....the analogy doesn't really make sense Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. Ahh refresh my memory please, trying to remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. that was pretty decent for BWI....I don't think I got anything here in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 that was pretty decent for BWI....I don't think I got anything here in DC IIRC, bwi got about 2" early am right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 IIRC, bwi got about 2" early am right? 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Speaking of trends and granted that it is slight but the Euro trended from zero snow at 12z yesterday to at least a bit on the 0z, and the NAM has steadily increased snow to NoVa over its past 3 runs. Granted this amount of snow is next to nothing, but it is more than nothing at the same time. I still think Sat ends up colder than modeled at the surface for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. That was a 2.5 inch snow in Winchester. I don't hardly see this setup as even close to that one. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Yeah the yoda ice event? .3" here and schools were closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? You're on a desert island for 10 days with no water and you're about to die of dehydration. Your post is the equivalent of seeing the Potomac River on the 10th day and worrying about how polluted it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Much closer to what I think happens. Similar to the event at the end of Jan in 09 except that 1. that event was much more potent, 2. it had more cold to start with, 3. the low ended up going west of us which this one isn't going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would indicate snow snow, nam raleigh weenie map 1-2 dc, 2-3 n of bwi. Lemme go check the iwm.com snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. yes....I like 1/17-18/2011 the best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DCA area sounding at 06z. Sim radar at that time below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DCA area sounding at 06z. Sim radar at that time below. sleet or maybe barely snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow I can hear it pinging already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow Yeah, it's close. If that sim radar is accurate, maybe "heavy" enough to tilt snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow I'd say if we could get some really good rates some snow could mix in with cooling of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.