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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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I'm trying to figure out the best case scenario for us, and I'm having trouble trying to get to a weenie-approved storm

Best-case: Track is a little further south, column stays below freezing for 2-3 hours at the onset of precip. Precip is heavier than modeled. Maybe an inch of snow before going over to sleet and then freezing rain/drizzle. We wake up Saturday to a white, slippery surface.

Most-likely: Hour or so of light snow in the middle of the night, turning over to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain for a couple of hours until the surface warms above freezing. We wake up to some slippery spots, but not much impact.

Worst-case: First slug of moisture stays up north, we warm by the time that the rest gets here. Shutout.

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So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range.

Wtf?

Seriously? Are you sure your weenie goggles weren't in extreme mode? ;)

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So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range.

Wtf?

Roker is on Team "Kill the Torch." :snowman:

(we need an emoticon of a snowman that has had stomach surgery)

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So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range.

Wtf?

The most important thing I took away from this post is......you watch Al Roker?

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want

This is going to be the reverse screw for us. It will get better. We all have to keep telling each other this...keep feeding off of each other...the positive energy will win out! We all just need to say screw it and go full weenie. What have we got to lose this year? What else have we got? We've already starting envoking Weenie Rationale......"models don't handle CAD well...it will get stronger the closer we get to the event".

**** it, I'm all in.

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I'm trying to figure out the best case scenario for us, and I'm having trouble trying to get to a weenie-approved storm

Best-case: Track is a little further south, column stays below freezing for 2-3 hours at the onset of precip. Precip is heavier than modeled. Maybe an inch of snow before going over to sleet and then freezing rain/drizzle. We wake up Saturday to a white, slippery surface.

Most-likely: Hour or so of light snow in the middle of the night, turning over to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain for a couple of hours until the surface warms above freezing. We wake up to some slippery spots, but not much impact.

Worst-case: First slug of moisture stays up north, we warm by the time that the rest gets here. Shutout.

For here, I'm kind of expecting an initial coating of snow, a period of sleet, and then several hours of freezing rain/drizzle that coats the trees and grassy/elevated surfaces. Light SE winds won't do much to scour out low-level and surface cold, so if the storm stays south we never get a turn to S/SW winds. Saw this scenario a lot during the winter of '07-'08 here with storms taking a similar track.

If temps can make it into the mid 20's Friday evening, or if more precip falls than is currently modeled, we could possibly do better than a WWA event.

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it is the NAM, but it is very cold at the surface at 06z SAturday and precip is already here....look at sim radar at 42 hours...at that time the 32 degree wedge is well south of the entire metro area....whether snow or sleet/frz rain is questionable, but it would be frozen

sfc CAD still south of DC metro at 9z

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NAm Naso bad, trends in our favor, i think it might be off a bit with the dry slot tho, and thats the only reason we warm up, colder run definitely tho.

Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us.

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Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us.

Youre right BB, i was only saying it in the sense that the column would stay cooled with the frozen precip falling and a solid CAD wedge, youre certainly right tho. If the 2/25 event you guys were speakin of is the one im thinking, we were supposed to have an icy mix but snow was pounding and we only warmed to freezing drizzle/drizzle after the dry slot.

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Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us.

Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway).

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