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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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the CAD signature at the surface is not as pronounced as you might expect...the CAD holds on at 12Z in NW VA, FDK, HGR MRB but above 32 everywhere else and then everyone above by 18z....light snow to rain or ice.....and then all rain...

not a lot of moisture....I'm not buying sfc temps on the euro anyway...they kind of bounce around....it is an improvement over 12z euro for sure...

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The 00z ECMWF continues to remain interesting down the road (last few days of January into early February). Sometimes the fast retraction of polar heights can produce some awesome stagnant circulations; and this time of year, you only need some marginal CAA to get sufficient air for snow. ECMWF has the HB/N Quebec warm anomaly developing.

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The 00z ECMWF continues to remain interesting down the road (last few days of January into early February). Sometimes the fast retraction of polar heights can produce some awesome stagnant circulations; and this time of year, you only need some marginal CAA to get sufficient air for snow. ECMWF has the HB/N Quebec warm anomaly developing.

Thanks HM for giving us some hope.

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Colder air starts getting displaced into the CONUS underneath this block as it lifts into the DS. However, at the same time, another PAC NW storm is crashing ashore. I am just happy to see a bubble of warm air in the west-NAO regions. Haven't seen a formidable / true block here since late October....

The sun is going down....down....down....

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Colder air starts getting displaced into the CONUS underneath this block as it lifts into the DS. However, at the same time, another PAC NW storm is crashing ashore. I am just happy to see a bubble of warm air in the west-NAO regions. Haven't seen a formidable / true block here since late October....

The sun is going down....down....down....

what's great is we have been seeing these heights rise to the west of Greenland on run after run after run...obviously it isn't going to happen exactly as progged in terms of timing or evolution, but I think we are all getting the sense that this change is happening....Over the past few days we have seen day 9-10 show something very promising but something that we need to extrapolate....we are finally seeing model output that really is starting to look good on its own where the improvements and changes we'd hope for don't take as much imgaination...THis is probably the best day 10 map I have seen, particularly on the Atlantic side...Now obviously there are issues...the AK ridge is west of where we'd want it to best benefit our latitude...The block just south of Baffin Island may not be as stable as we would like....we need the trough over Greenland to keep progressing north/east and heights to fall over NF where we still have some ridginess holding on....but it looks like these processes are underway...and this is the 1st run I have seen with the ridge developing over western Canada...or maybe I wasn't paying as much attention before...maybe things are being rushed but the makings of a highly serviceable pattern are within our grasp....even this upcoming 7-10 day period doesn't feel repetitive or derivative, even if some warm days are in there....I am optimistic about February....

post-66-0-54409300-1326960610.gif

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Friday night into Saturday event - a little frzra and sleet transitioning to all rain by 7am Saturday.

Might luck out and see a brief flurry of snow at the onset

Possibly a coating of sleet pellets on the car top

Interesting to watch - but nothing to really get overexcited about.

This is a moderate La Nina

We all knew that meant +NAO

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So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range.

Wtf?

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