usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 18z GFS ensembles, 12z UKMET /CMC/ECMWF are all colder than the older NAM / GFS solutions. Glad to see the 00z NAM come around to what it can do best (sniffing out temps with secondary / ageostrophic circulations with frontogen bands). It's still pretty much rain on the 00Z in the city as the 850 zero line shifts north of the city by the time the precip gets going but the 2m temp is right at freezing at 12Z but warm by 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's still pretty much rain on the 00Z in the city as the 850 zero line shifts north of the city by the time the precip gets going but the 2m temp is right at freezing at 12Z but warm by 15Z. Yeah this is not a DC storm.... We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does and the new CIPS guidance. I know at 12z, CIPS put the 2/22/08 storm as number 1 analog with a median snow of 2" or more down into DC (that may be way too generous with this one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah this is not a DC storm.... We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does and the new CIPS guidance. I know at 12z, CIPS put the 2/22/08 storm as number 1 analog with a median snow of 2" or more down into DC (that may be way too generous with this one). I got less than 1/2" with 2/20/08 so maybe it is a decent analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like light snow quickly to wintry mix... by 09z 2m 0c lin knocking on DCAs door. N and C MD looking at some icing... perhaps up to 1/4 inch. 2m 0c temp just NW of DCA and IAD at 15z... prob mid 30s at DCA around 32 at IAD. Does warm up by 18z for rain but precip ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 00z GFS is definitely cooler. Once again the foreign models are leading the way, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like light snow quickly to wintry mix... by 09z 2m 0c lin knocking on DCAs door. N and C MD looking at some icing... perhaps up to 1/4 inch. 2m 0c temp just NW of DCA and IAD at 15z... prob mid 30s at DCA around 32 at IAD. Does warm up by 18z for rain but precip ending It's way colder than the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12 hr QPF .25 to .50 much of MD and N DC. N VA prob .2 or so (as in MRB/IAD/JYO). This QPF is from hrs 51 to 63... 63 is when the 2m 0c line is crossing through the region... so perhaps .05 may be rain at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's way colder than the last run Indeed... its an ice system from what I see... you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 132 blue line on the 1000-850 mb thickness doesn't go north of EZF during this "storm" at all. Closest aproach is at 63 hrs. Quick question, how do I use this again? Doesn't this thickness level denote ice risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Heavy glaze folks... I've been saying for days this would turn colder at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Indeed... its an ice system from what I see... you agree? I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low. Makes sense... but the 850 line moves north too quickly by the time precip gets here, which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low. These are the storms that get you. I've followed winter storms since 1958 and during every terrible winter I can remember theres been a bad ice storm... I'm not basing my forecast off much science other than model underestimation of CAD events. I just know. Trust me everyone. DCA is going to get a big ol ice bucket this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Makes sense... but the 850 line moves north too quickly by the time precip gets here, which sucks. As of now it does, but for once I feel like we have a chance with this one, its the best set up for the metros to see a favorable trend, the other chances this "winter" have been thread the needle. I think ice in DC/Baltimore is looking much more possible now, but I wouldn't write off Matt's thoughts that a snow event could be a future outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Every season we seem to have some hyped ice threat that never materializes. If there is one thing I know about this area, it is that we don't get more than a glaze unless the airmass is super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Every season we seem to have some hyped ice threat that never materializes. If there is one thing I know about this area, it is that we don't get more than a glaze unless the airmass is super cold. The Yoda ice storm did. think that was last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At this point I'll take any wintry event in a heartbeat........I'm all for ice as long as I don't lose power. I'd love a few inches of snow but as of now, I'm not counting on any 2/25/07 type miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At this point I'll take any wintry event in a heartbeat........I'm all for ice as long as I don't lose power. I'd love a few inches of snow but as of now, I'm not counting on any 2/25/07 type miracle. We deserve a miracle. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We deserve a miracle. Period. Yeah I just looked at the GFS..... north of the M/D line it looks much better for a nice 3-6" event, if I'm reading it right. Can it trend just a little colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah I just looked at the GFS.....just north of the M/D line it looks much better for a nice 3-6" event, if I'm reading it right. Can it trend just a little colder? Sit down, have a bourbon, say a prayer, and listen to some Bob Seger and it'll happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM is well...if you wanted a good trend, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can't say I'm confident I see snow, this area does poorly with snow even in non borderline setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM is a mostly snow event for the dc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Its always possible. To me this looks like a brief mix in my area then switch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.00" final call. Nobody is converting me to an optomist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.00" final call. Nobody is converting me to an optomist. When you see the warmest model on the board convert to a mostly snow result it's tough to not get optimistic... Especially with ensembles running colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ensembles running colder They are? Still want to see the Euro on board tonight, if so maybe I'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd still lean toward mostly nonevent for DC proper and minor, localized event for NW burbs and favor spots, but I think it is up in the air....CAD is cool....curious to see if the Euro is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They are? Still want to see the Euro on board tonight, if so maybe I'll feel better. they are warmer than the OP but measurably colder than they were at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.00" final call. Nobody is converting me to an optomist. It will find a way to rain in Frederick...all the while snowing 3mi away in each direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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