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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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The 18z GFS ensembles, 12z UKMET /CMC/ECMWF are all colder than the older NAM / GFS solutions. Glad to see the 00z NAM come around to what it can do best (sniffing out temps with secondary / ageostrophic circulations with frontogen bands).

It's still pretty much rain on the 00Z in the city as the 850 zero line shifts north of the city by the time the precip gets going but the 2m temp is right at freezing at 12Z but warm by 15Z.

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It's still pretty much rain on the 00Z in the city as the 850 zero line shifts north of the city by the time the precip gets going but the 2m temp is right at freezing at 12Z but warm by 15Z.

Yeah this is not a DC storm.... We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does and the new CIPS guidance. I know at 12z, CIPS put the 2/22/08 storm as number 1 analog with a median snow of 2" or more down into DC (that may be way too generous with this one).

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Yeah this is not a DC storm.... We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does and the new CIPS guidance. I know at 12z, CIPS put the 2/22/08 storm as number 1 analog with a median snow of 2" or more down into DC (that may be way too generous with this one).

I got less than 1/2" with 2/20/08 so maybe it is a decent analog.

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Looks like light snow quickly to wintry mix... by 09z 2m 0c lin knocking on DCAs door. N and C MD looking at some icing... perhaps up to 1/4 inch. 2m 0c temp just NW of DCA and IAD at 15z... prob mid 30s at DCA around 32 at IAD. Does warm up by 18z for rain but precip ending

It's way colder than the last run

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Indeed... its an ice system from what I see... you agree?

I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low.

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I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low.

Makes sense... but the 850 line moves north too quickly by the time precip gets here, which sucks.

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I dunno. I was hoping the models would trend colder when they caught on to the CAD. We'll see if the euro gets colder as well. I wouldn't write off a snow event. My gut tells me it will be WWA event for moco/loudoun/Frederick/ etc but effects may be more localized and it may be for ice. 2/25/07 probably springs to mind as an event that trended this way when it looked like a changeover on the models. But we had a block and a 50-50 low.

These are the storms that get you. I've followed winter storms since 1958 and during every terrible winter I can remember theres been a bad ice storm... I'm not basing my forecast off much science other than model underestimation of CAD events. I just know. Trust me everyone. DCA is going to get a big ol ice bucket this weekend

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Makes sense... but the 850 line moves north too quickly by the time precip gets here, which sucks.

As of now it does, but for once I feel like we have a chance with this one, its the best set up for the metros to see a favorable trend, the other chances this "winter" have been thread the needle. I think ice in DC/Baltimore is looking much more possible now, but I wouldn't write off Matt's thoughts that a snow event could be a future outcome.

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