Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm in the zwts camp too! The odds of exponentially better winter weather in Feb - Mar are pretty darn high considering what we have experienced so far. The worst Nina Feb/Mar periods are generally only during strong Wasn't march 01 a good winter month? I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Way too much negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Go ugly early was always my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Way too much negativity. is this a moderate nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is this a moderate nina? Borderline. Probably weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DT nailed Seattle snow forecast..went 1-2 feet...they got 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is this a moderate nina? so much for Dec being the best month of a nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 *Rain Pic* Yeah, DCA is going to be a bust.. but thats to be expected. CBE to DMW still have a potencial winter p-type storm coming up though, lets at least be happy for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sleet? Its the third image that comes up when you type in "rain" to google images.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow is that heavy snow right outside your apartment?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Borderline. Probably weak. ONI will probably max at -.9C http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ONI will probably max at -.9C http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for Sounds about right. Not that it matters much as a 2nd year Nina. It is legit. I don't think there is anything weak about it though with the -ao I dont think any enso state stood much of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol- I found the stats. well below normal temps, almost no snow, and 2 coastals that looked just like the picture Ian posted. Anyway, odds are still good for some winter weather of note over the next 8 weeks. One storm deep enough to sled on is all I ask for. One day @ the hill with the kids. Reasonable request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol- I found the stats. well below normal temps, almost no snow, and 2 coastals that looked just like the picture Ian posted. Anyway, odds are still good for some winter weather of note over the next 8 weeks. One storm deep enough to sled on is all I ask for. One day @ the hill with the kids. Reasonable request. There was an infamous epic model bust that month. A huge I95 KU turned into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sounds about right. Not that it matters much as a 2nd year Nina. It is legit. I don't think there is anything weak about it though with the -ao I dont think any enso state stood much of a chance. it's just a darn shame that snow lovers in our area have got to suffer like this last year was real tough after 09/10 as we all suspected our area wasn't capable of putting together great back-to-back years, but with PHL doing it and being so close made it frustrating this year has been nothing short of evil I won't give up because I can't; I've held on till' the bitter end every year since 72/73, and I won't stop this year but it sure ain't much fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Lol... I started this winter as an optimist, but my therapist told me that traveling with a snow shovel at my side was going too far. I now just take it as it comes. Right now, it doesn't look good for snow this month, but a fluke event would be welcomed. Feb into March looks much better to me for our area. I do like your enthusiasm, though. It somewhat balances Ian's posts. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS has a snow event next Thursday. Euro is 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 One thing that kinda makes sense (in a really bad way) is the state of the NAO and AO has had a pretty large bias towards negative during winter since the winter of 05-06 and it had to give at some point. The entire decade of the 60's had that bias too so I was of course hopeful going into this winter thinking that we were in the middle of a similar decadal cycle. The winter temps for Nina's in the 60's were decidedly cold for the east. This winter didn't play nice though. We could still be in a larger scale -ao/nao cycle but this winter will stand out to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS has a snow event next Thursday. Euro is 60. Euro is only right 7 days out when it shows warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. At this point, I'd make out with Al Sharpton in the bar at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At this point, I'd make out with Al Sharpton in the bar at 3am. but he's African-American and a Democrat don't ya' just hate those types! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Here is your next snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thursday nights event looks okay east of NYC. Saturdays event looks good north and east of Scranton and will probably at least start as snow in NYC unless things trend north. However for the Mid Atlantic this winter will continue to be the Ayatollah of Crapola for at least the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sleet? White rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 White rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ok, you know it's bad when Matt is stooping to pure weenie levels. Dear weather gods, give these people snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At this point, I'd make out with Al Sharpton in the bar at 3am. Wow you are desperate, with that big belly and sexy hair how could you resist him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM has a little snow for the DC area on Sat morning, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM has a little snow for the DC area on Sat morning, FWIW. The 18z GFS ensembles, 12z UKMET /CMC/ECMWF are all colder than the older NAM / GFS solutions. Glad to see the 00z NAM come around to what it can do best (sniffing out temps with secondary / ageostrophic circulations with frontogen bands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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