BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. That was a 2.5 inch snow in Winchester. I don't hardly see this setup as even close to that one. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Yeah the yoda ice event? .3" here and schools were closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? You're on a desert island for 10 days with no water and you're about to die of dehydration. Your post is the equivalent of seeing the Potomac River on the 10th day and worrying about how polluted it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe something like January 2011? A bit of snow followed by a changover to sleet and 0.2" of ZR, then plain rain. Much closer to what I think happens. Similar to the event at the end of Jan in 09 except that 1. that event was much more potent, 2. it had more cold to start with, 3. the low ended up going west of us which this one isn't going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would indicate snow snow, nam raleigh weenie map 1-2 dc, 2-3 n of bwi. Lemme go check the iwm.com snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DCA area sounding at 06z. Sim radar at that time below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow I can hear it pinging already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow Yeah, it's close. If that sim radar is accurate, maybe "heavy" enough to tilt snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 sleet or maybe barely snow I'd say if we could get some really good rates some snow could mix in with cooling of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yes....I like 1/17-18/2011 the best... I think the CAD in that storm held on a bit more than modeled... weren't we supposed to go above freezing and we didn't till some time later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Seriously? Are you sure your weenie goggles weren't in extreme mode? I rewound it to check again to make sure I wasn't seeing things - I wasn't. I promise. The most important thing I took away from this post is......you watch Al Roker? Not usually... had an appointment this morning so I didn't catch my usual morning news and got stuck with the Today show instead. I about spit out my coffee when I saw their snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With that 800mb temp map, that would imply snow for most of MD. Sleet or maybe sleet/snow mix for points south of the 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With that 800mb temp map, that would imply snow for most of MD. Sleet or maybe sleet/snow mix for points south of the 0C line. Thats why i said snow, 2m's/sfc are below freezing along with most of the column, decent snow rates occurring there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think the CAD in that storm held on a bit more than modeled... weren't we supposed to go above freezing and we didn't till some time later? Yes LWX forecasted it plain rain here by 4AM, it happened at about 9AM. I mostly remember that storm for the epic wipeout I had on my front steps while snapping pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 its working...positive vibes people..positive vibes. 12z NAM trending colder at the surface. I abhor ice, but at this point, it's like Matt's 3am at the bar analogy. How was Al Sharpton last night?, feisty?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think we both have a sense of our fate from being through it so many times...You just hope to at least get a 0.1/0.2" coating of snow down 1st..sometimes it can surprise and hold on for a bit longer....just looked at 6z ensembles...they too like the idea of getting precip in here by 4z/5z tomorrow night....that timing would be the best case scenario as you posted I hate to say the trend is our friend, but I've watched as the NAM has moved the ribbon of heavy snow from Minneapolis to Madison to Rockford/Chicago over the last two days. We can hope that it is catching on. /weenie off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Warm up the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Keep the optimism going... Its working! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 With that 800mb temp map, that would imply snow for most of MD. Sleet or maybe sleet/snow mix for points south of the 0C line. It would probably be sleet by the time you are in Prince William/Fauquier... probably just barely hanging on to snow in Fairfax/Loudoun/DC... Montgomery/Howard mainly snow with a few pings starting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How was Al Sharpton last night?, feisty?. As always. If trends keep getting better, may have to marry him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Warm up the bus? We're doing it man. Gotta keep the optimism and positive vibes alive. I'm about off my rocker and it feels great. Why not weenie it up and have some fun. Been a long time. We're all giddy over the prospects of an hour of snow, followed by sleet/zr and then rain. I mean, really....might as well be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As always. If trends keep getting better, may have to marry him. See you at the wedding Sat. night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We're doing it man. Gotta keep the optimism and positive vibes alive. I'm about off my rocker and it feels great. Why not weenie it up and have some fun. Been a long time. We're all giddy over the prospects of an hour of snow, followed by sleet/zr and then rain. I mean, really....might as well be optimistic. I'll be doing a CWG piece on the storm later today so I won't post my thoughts here yet. It's something to post about. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is like watching a bunch of girls at the school dance hoping Bobby the school QB comes over to talk to them. Eventually, you'll all be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 nice air mass...IAD hit 16 this morning and I think we get a reinforcing shot tomorrow..... This is really the first time in my life i would not mind an ice storm, it is a weekend and i have my backup generator finally installed. So with the way this winter is going at least give me any kind of wintry precip. I am sure the GFS will be colder at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'd say if we could get some really good rates some snow could mix in with cooling of the column. NAM only gives us about .5" for the whole 84hr so it's not going to be dumping but anything can help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is like watching a bunch of girls at the school dance hoping Bobby the school QB comes over to talk to them. Eventually, you'll all be disappointed. Hell no. We're not making eyes at the QB, we're making eyes at the backup punter. But, better that than a lonely night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 As always. If trends keep getting better, may have to marry him. Double date with you/Al, Matt/Rosie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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