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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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:whistle:

lol- I found the stats. well below normal temps, almost no snow, and 2 coastals that looked just like the picture Ian posted.

Anyway, odds are still good for some winter weather of note over the next 8 weeks. One storm deep enough to sled on is all I ask for. One day @ the hill with the kids. Reasonable request.

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lol- I found the stats. well below normal temps, almost no snow, and 2 coastals that looked just like the picture Ian posted.

Anyway, odds are still good for some winter weather of note over the next 8 weeks. One storm deep enough to sled on is all I ask for. One day @ the hill with the kids. Reasonable request.

There was an infamous epic model bust that month. A huge I95 KU turned into nothing.

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Sounds about right. Not that it matters much as a 2nd year Nina. It is legit. I don't think there is anything weak about it though with the -ao I dont think any enso state stood much of a chance.

it's just a darn shame that snow lovers in our area have got to suffer like this

last year was real tough after 09/10 as we all suspected our area wasn't capable of putting together great back-to-back years, but with PHL doing it and being so close made it frustrating

this year has been nothing short of evil

I won't give up because I can't; I've held on till' the bitter end every year since 72/73, and I won't stop this year

but it sure ain't much fun

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I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable.

Lol... I started this winter as an optimist, but my therapist told me that traveling with a snow shovel at my side was going too far. I now just take it as it comes. Right now, it doesn't look good for snow this month, but a fluke event would be welcomed. Feb into March looks much better to me for our area. I do like your enthusiasm, though. It somewhat balances Ian's posts.

MDstorm

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One thing that kinda makes sense (in a really bad way) is the state of the NAO and AO has had a pretty large bias towards negative during winter since the winter of 05-06 and it had to give at some point. The entire decade of the 60's had that bias too so I was of course hopeful going into this winter thinking that we were in the middle of a similar decadal cycle. The winter temps for Nina's in the 60's were decidedly cold for the east. This winter didn't play nice though.

We could still be in a larger scale -ao/nao cycle but this winter will stand out to say the least.

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Thursday nights event looks okay east of NYC. Saturdays event looks good north and east of Scranton and will probably at least start as snow in NYC unless things trend north.

However for the Mid Atlantic this winter will continue to be the Ayatollah of Crapola for at least the next 2 weeks.

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NAM has a little snow for the DC area on Sat morning, FWIW.

The 18z GFS ensembles, 12z UKMET /CMC/ECMWF are all colder than the older NAM / GFS solutions. Glad to see the 00z NAM come around to what it can do best (sniffing out temps with secondary / ageostrophic circulations with frontogen bands).

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