stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 want This is going to be the reverse screw for us. It will get better. We all have to keep telling each other this...keep feeding off of each other...the positive energy will win out! We all just need to say screw it and go full weenie. What have we got to lose this year? What else have we got? We've already starting envoking Weenie Rationale......"models don't handle CAD well...it will get stronger the closer we get to the event". **** it, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm trying to figure out the best case scenario for us, and I'm having trouble trying to get to a weenie-approved storm Best-case: Track is a little further south, column stays below freezing for 2-3 hours at the onset of precip. Precip is heavier than modeled. Maybe an inch of snow before going over to sleet and then freezing rain/drizzle. We wake up Saturday to a white, slippery surface. Most-likely: Hour or so of light snow in the middle of the night, turning over to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain for a couple of hours until the surface warms above freezing. We wake up to some slippery spots, but not much impact. Worst-case: First slug of moisture stays up north, we warm by the time that the rest gets here. Shutout. For here, I'm kind of expecting an initial coating of snow, a period of sleet, and then several hours of freezing rain/drizzle that coats the trees and grassy/elevated surfaces. Light SE winds won't do much to scour out low-level and surface cold, so if the storm stays south we never get a turn to S/SW winds. Saw this scenario a lot during the winter of '07-'08 here with storms taking a similar track. If temps can make it into the mid 20's Friday evening, or if more precip falls than is currently modeled, we could possibly do better than a WWA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the clipper over this past weekend trended south (recall HM's forecast of 1-3" about 3 days before it) and missed us completely soooooo, a weenie can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm content for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I am down with willing this to happen. We need this. Time for one to come our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 upper levels look pathetic on the NAM, meaning it's a light precip event for evryone no matter what falls (.25-.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Somewhat of improvment on 12z NAM... note hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 CAD holds till about 12z... DCA around 32... but N and W burbs frozen... 15z NW MD including HGR and MRB still frozen everyone else light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is an extended ice event for the NW burbs Decent precip amounts too. Hope that's a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can't complain about the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The most important thing I took away from this post is......you watch Al Roker? Hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM is an extended ice event for the NW burbs EDIT: there is no precip falling by 12z....lol...so snow to ice then dry slot? and then probably warm above 32? Probably... 2m temps at 18z with new slug near 10c at EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAm Naso bad, trends in our favor, i think it might be off a bit with the dry slot tho, and thats the only reason we warm up, colder run definitely tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sold. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAm Naso bad, trends in our favor, i think it might be off a bit with the dry slot tho, and thats the only reason we warm up, colder run definitely tho. Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us. Youre right BB, i was only saying it in the sense that the column would stay cooled with the frozen precip falling and a solid CAD wedge, youre certainly right tho. If the 2/25 event you guys were speakin of is the one im thinking, we were supposed to have an icy mix but snow was pounding and we only warmed to freezing drizzle/drizzle after the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can't complain about the trend applying the theory that none of the models do well with the wedge until the last 24 hrs, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 more light zr saturday night/sunday morning? Euro showed a little bit of that as snow I believe, at least just to the west of the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Maybe I'm missing something, but with a warm layer overhead wouldn't heavier precip do the opposite in bringing warmer air to the surface? Not sure why a dryslot would warm us. Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 its working...positive vibes people..positive vibes. 12z NAM trending colder at the surface. I abhor ice, but at this point, it's like Matt's 3am at the bar analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway). See thats what I was thinking, thanks Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ice sucks. Can we trend this thing to mostly snow? At this rate, maybe, if we keep Randy's positive vibes theory going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Dry slot would allow the temp and dewpoint to decouple with southerly/southwesterly flow right at the surface... would warm things up a bit (more so than precip bringing down warmer air, anyway). Thanks. Flow seems to have more of a SE component though? I thought the SE flow was what allowed damming against the mtns? http://raleighwx.ame...mpsNAMLoop.html Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't see SW winds, but my eyes suck pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 for you maybe a bit more at the beginning?.....It has happened before but it would have to be pretty big model failure for anyone to be snow by mid to late morning Saturday Unless either the randy train rips models to shreds or 2/25 miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2/25 had a -NAO and a lot more precip...I don't really see a scenario right now where we could get a lot of snow....the analogy doesn't really make sense Not a lot of snow, just a larger percentage of snow. I know its unlikely, but hey what the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 2/25 had a -NAO and a lot more precip...I don't really see a scenario right now where we could get a lot of snow....the analogy doesn't really make sense Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Best best case scenario would be a slightly lesser version of 12/31/09. Ahh refresh my memory please, trying to remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 that was pretty decent for BWI....I don't think I got anything here in DC IIRC, bwi got about 2" early am right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Speaking of trends and granted that it is slight but the Euro trended from zero snow at 12z yesterday to at least a bit on the 0z, and the NAM has steadily increased snow to NoVa over its past 3 runs. Granted this amount of snow is next to nothing, but it is more than nothing at the same time. I still think Sat ends up colder than modeled at the surface for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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