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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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Are you looking at 216-240hr? Or do you have Days 11-15 too? It looks like things are changing there Days 9-10, but it still all seems transient.

day 9-10....The N Atl Ridge is transient..it is over the UK by the end of the run...but the trough over greenland has been progressing steadily east and there is weakish ridging to the west of it...not sure what that means beyond day 9-10....

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Thanks, Ian. It's hard to tell on those maps. Is this the first run of the Euro that has shown this second low?

i dont thnik it's shown it the last few but i remember commenting on it when mitch posted a 500 map the other day

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day 9-10....The N Atl Ridge is transient..it is over the UK by the end of the run...but the trough over greenland has been progressing steadily east and there is weakish ridging to the west of it...not sure what that means beyond day 9-10....

i've seen a lot worse day 10 maps...of course it is day 10....imagine if we can get the PAC/ATL to start to cooperate at the same time?

post-66-0-27656300-1326913790.gif

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Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition.

Besides being arrogant is this even true? Or is this your point because it is not true? It seems to me the forecast for Seattle Metro proper busted and they are getting alot less snow that originally forecast

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if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95)

But does it stay put long enough for something to spin up? The buzz word for this winter so far has been "transient"

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if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95)

but with that pattern you might not get the high in place so you'd probably need a wave on a front once it got by us. It's still not a great pattern but beats the heck out of having a big giant upper low over AK.

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I agree, that map looks good, but the anamoly map doesn't with the High off the N.At coast; High Pressure over the pole looks good however

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif

I know were kicking around the 384 gfs so that has it's own problems but there is general support to improve the atlantic towards the end of the month. I remember Nina winters in CO when I worked for the ski resorts. We would generally have a 10-15 day storm cycle followed up with a big dry ridge before the next cycle sets up. This year hasn't had the cycles that are typical for Nina's. However, the northern rockies are going to get pounded for what looks like the rest of the month.

IF the Atlantic were to improve as advertised, the pac (or more specifically the pna) could be work very well in unison come the first part of Feb. God I hope so.....

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Lol. The NAM is a relative torch for the weekend. I still think that the only real excitement for this system is in SNE away from the coast. It's onto February and better times for us.

MDstorm

I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy

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I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy

:thumbsup: You'll have company.

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I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable.

JMA gives us snow initiallly at 72 hours

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I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy

I'm in the zwts camp too! :thumbsup:

The odds of exponentially better winter weather in Feb - Mar are pretty darn high considering what we have experienced so far. The worst Nina Feb/Mar periods are generally only during strong Nina's. This one has been mod at best so for. Tri-monthlies haven't even gone over 1.0 yet. Best matches for multi-year Nina's with current enso reading are 74-75 and 00-01. Wasn't march 01 a good winter month? I don't remember.

Anyway, pretty tight cluster for ens ao/nao forecasts through the end of the month. Most bullish -ao forecast of the season so far and pretty much all ens agree at the nao going negative around the beg of Feb. Even hints of a +pna to go along with it.

Feb is gonna be rockin!

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