WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i havent looked at snowfall maps but the second low basically goes east and fizzles Thanks, Ian. It's hard to tell on those maps. Is this the first run of the Euro that has shown this second low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Are you looking at 216-240hr? Or do you have Days 11-15 too? It looks like things are changing there Days 9-10, but it still all seems transient. day 9-10....The N Atl Ridge is transient..it is over the UK by the end of the run...but the trough over greenland has been progressing steadily east and there is weakish ridging to the west of it...not sure what that means beyond day 9-10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks, Ian. It's hard to tell on those maps. Is this the first run of the Euro that has shown this second low? i dont thnik it's shown it the last few but i remember commenting on it when mitch posted a 500 map the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 day 9-10....The N Atl Ridge is transient..it is over the UK by the end of the run...but the trough over greenland has been progressing steadily east and there is weakish ridging to the west of it...not sure what that means beyond day 9-10.... i've seen a lot worse day 10 maps...of course it is day 10....imagine if we can get the PAC/ATL to start to cooperate at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean continues to show a very favorable pattern by the end of the month into early February. -NAO, neutral to positive PNA, -EPO and probably a weak -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean continues to show a very favorable pattern by the end of the month into early February. -NAO, neutral to positive PNA, -EPO and probably a weak -AO. is this today's 12Z run because it doesn't look so hot to me??? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think it is. The trough starts in the west and slowly moves east to us by the end. Ridging over Greenland and along the West Coast. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. Besides being arrogant is this even true? Or is this your point because it is not true? It seems to me the forecast for Seattle Metro proper busted and they are getting alot less snow that originally forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is this today's 12Z run because it doesn't look so hot to me??? http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif I don't know Mitch. Looks pretty decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't know Mitch. Looks pretty decent here. if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95) But does it stay put long enough for something to spin up? The buzz word for this winter so far has been "transient" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gotta slow down the flow at some point. Everything has been so progressive that nothing has time to manifest,except the AK vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't know Mitch. Looks pretty decent here. I agree, that map looks good, but the anamoly map doesn't with the High off the N.At coast; High Pressure over the pole looks good however http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 he never misses the PAC NW...he is always forecasting a big event there Who in hades missed it? The pattern was a pretty obvious one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95) but with that pattern you might not get the high in place so you'd probably need a wave on a front once it got by us. It's still not a great pattern but beats the heck out of having a big giant upper low over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Who in hades missed it? The pattern was a pretty obvious one. http://instantrimshot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I agree, that map looks good, but the anamoly map doesn't with the High off the N.At coast; High Pressure over the pole looks good however http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif I know were kicking around the 384 gfs so that has it's own problems but there is general support to improve the atlantic towards the end of the month. I remember Nina winters in CO when I worked for the ski resorts. We would generally have a 10-15 day storm cycle followed up with a big dry ridge before the next cycle sets up. This year hasn't had the cycles that are typical for Nina's. However, the northern rockies are going to get pounded for what looks like the rest of the month. IF the Atlantic were to improve as advertised, the pac (or more specifically the pna) could be work very well in unison come the first part of Feb. God I hope so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the NAM isn't having any of the Saturday business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the NAM isn't having any of the Saturday business Lol. The NAM is a relative torch for the weekend. I still think that the only real excitement for this system is in SNE away from the coast. It's onto February and better times for us. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lol. The NAM is a relative torch for the weekend. I still think that the only real excitement for this system is in SNE away from the coast. It's onto February and better times for us. MDstorm I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy You'll have company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM re-runs the pattern this year so that only Central-N NE are saved wouldn't shock me if that's how it ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You'll have company. I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You'll have company. I like the look of hour 144 and 192 next week on the 12z GFS. Not good enough by any means at this time but it may have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. JMA gives us snow initiallly at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 JMA has a really good wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 JMA gives us snow initiallly at 72 hours Hopefully the models will start trending our way once they catch on to the ferocity of this air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy I'm in the zwts camp too! The odds of exponentially better winter weather in Feb - Mar are pretty darn high considering what we have experienced so far. The worst Nina Feb/Mar periods are generally only during strong Nina's. This one has been mod at best so for. Tri-monthlies haven't even gone over 1.0 yet. Best matches for multi-year Nina's with current enso reading are 74-75 and 00-01. Wasn't march 01 a good winter month? I don't remember. Anyway, pretty tight cluster for ens ao/nao forecasts through the end of the month. Most bullish -ao forecast of the season so far and pretty much all ens agree at the nao going negative around the beg of Feb. Even hints of a +pna to go along with it. Feb is gonna be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 JMA has a really good wedge Things are looking up. We have the -SN event tomorrow night, the snow to rain/zr event Saturday morning possibly back to snow on Sunday and several chances during the torch next week before the -nao/-epo/-ao/+pna pattern settles in around the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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