MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.00" final call. Nobody is converting me to an optomist. When you see the warmest model on the board convert to a mostly snow result it's tough to not get optimistic... Especially with ensembles running colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ensembles running colder They are? Still want to see the Euro on board tonight, if so maybe I'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 0.00" final call. Nobody is converting me to an optomist. It will find a way to rain in Frederick...all the while snowing 3mi away in each direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Damn, just got back from a *late* dinner... The ol' Nam caved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And so it begins... Throwing my cards on the table, I'm all in. If the euro goes colder I'm calling for a DC WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not looking good.. Never was good at poker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the CAD signature at the surface is not as pronounced as you might expect...the CAD holds on at 12Z in NW VA, FDK, HGR MRB but above 32 everywhere else and then everyone above by 18z....light snow to rain or ice.....and then all rain... One should note the euro is least skilled in CAD events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro does have a warm surface bias, but the NAM not liking the CAD scenario doesn't make me feel good inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yes...the temp profile is ok on the euro...there just isn't that tongue of moisture that you want to see...it is all pretty light Matt, what is the total QPF for BWI please if you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro does have a warm surface bias, but the NAM not liking the CAD scenario doesn't make me feel good inside. Did you even look at the 2m temps? LOL, its flipped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 00z ECMWF continues to remain interesting down the road (last few days of January into early February). Sometimes the fast retraction of polar heights can produce some awesome stagnant circulations; and this time of year, you only need some marginal CAA to get sufficient air for snow. ECMWF has the HB/N Quebec warm anomaly developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 00z ECMWF continues to remain interesting down the road (last few days of January into early February). Sometimes the fast retraction of polar heights can produce some awesome stagnant circulations; and this time of year, you only need some marginal CAA to get sufficient air for snow. ECMWF has the HB/N Quebec warm anomaly developing. Thanks HM for giving us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Colder air starts getting displaced into the CONUS underneath this block as it lifts into the DS. However, at the same time, another PAC NW storm is crashing ashore. I am just happy to see a bubble of warm air in the west-NAO regions. Haven't seen a formidable / true block here since late October.... The sun is going down....down....down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Friday night into Saturday event - a little frzra and sleet transitioning to all rain by 7am Saturday. Might luck out and see a brief flurry of snow at the onset Possibly a coating of sleet pellets on the car top Interesting to watch - but nothing to really get overexcited about. This is a moderate La Nina We all knew that meant +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 06Z Nam looks is colder @ 850 and the surface compared to the 00Z run. Still not cold enough for anyone south of the Mason Dixon line though except for possibly a short period of frozen before a switch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS came in a little warmer compared to last night's run but still looks to give N MD a semi decent period of frozen before switching over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6Z RGEM at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS came in a little warmer compared to last night's run but still looks to give N MD a semi decent period of frozen before switching over. Gfs 6z seems to give more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Gfs 6z seems to give more snow Didn't bother looking at soundings but just going by the Weenie snow maps it looks like the snowier model run is the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6Z RGEM at 48 hrs want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM going cold and the NAM going warm? That might be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM going cold and the NAM going warm? That might be a first. The last several runs the Nam has trended colder. It will be interesting to see what it has when it starts getting inside it's wheelhouse of 36-48 hours for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range. Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Come on river temps! Help me and my flamethrower defend DCA! But anyone in northern VA outside the Beltway may be out of luck (or in luck if you view it that way....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Damn my weenie heart is getting pulled into this one..want it, need it, crave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm trying to figure out the best case scenario for us, and I'm having trouble trying to get to a weenie-approved storm Best-case: Track is a little further south, column stays below freezing for 2-3 hours at the onset of precip. Precip is heavier than modeled. Maybe an inch of snow before going over to sleet and then freezing rain/drizzle. We wake up Saturday to a white, slippery surface. Most-likely: Hour or so of light snow in the middle of the night, turning over to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain for a couple of hours until the surface warms above freezing. We wake up to some slippery spots, but not much impact. Worst-case: First slug of moisture stays up north, we warm by the time that the rest gets here. Shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range. Wtf? Seriously? Are you sure your weenie goggles weren't in extreme mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm probably reading the GFS totally wrong, but does it just miss a triple phaser on 2/2? Just would be fun to fantasize an ass-kicking storm in early bonus range, and that is the period right before the predicted pattern change so I think larger storms would be favored then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range. Wtf? Roker is on Team "Kill the Torch." (we need an emoticon of a snowman that has had stomach surgery) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So I'm at home this morning watching the Today show... Al Roker just did his weather bit and showed a snowfall map from today until Saturday night regarding the clipper. Yeah... It had northern MD in the 6-9 inch of snow range, with the rest of MD, DC and northern VA in the 3-6 inch range. Wtf? The most important thing I took away from this post is......you watch Al Roker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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