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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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storms a little slower.. someone near the md/pa border might get some sleet/zr.. pushing 50 in dc at 18z sat.

I think the model is more bullish than that....it is below 32 at 06z for HGR, FDK, MRB, etc and it is already starting to precipitate or close.....temps dont go above until probably 10-11z and even then there is still a bubble in N MD....

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I think the model is more bullish than that....it is below 32 at 06z for HGR, FDK, MRB, etc and it is already starting to precipitate or close.....temps dont go above until probably 10-11z and even then there is still a bubble in N MD....

it could be but barely if it is.. there is no precip shown at 6z in the area on accum which starts at .05" on my maps.. i guess there could be some less than that. at 12z there is a small area of .05" to the n/nw of the city mainly. at 12z 32 line hugs the border or just north.

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it could be but barely if it is.. there is no precip shown at 6z in the area on accum which starts at .05" on my maps.. i guess there could be some less than that. at 12z there is a small area of .05" to the n/nw of the city mainly. at 12z 32 line hugs the border or just north.

yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here :(

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yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here :(

Valleys in Western Va sound likely for best chances

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Valleys in Western Va sound likely for best chances

even the "warm" euro has DC in upper 30s at 12z...depends how quickly precip get here....even at 18z, it has a 30 degree gradient between central PA and southern VA.....it is too far north to help us but depends where it sets up...it may be modeled too far north....this doesn't help you and me at all but if someone in NW VA can get ZR I'm all for it

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yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here :(

i wouldnt be surprised if it's a little colder.. was just typing what i saw on the maps. we still probably need precip to get in early and even then im not sure what the upside is at least in our backyards.

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I usually just look at raleigh's site for the euro but it doesn't have 2m winds and I really like looking at that when considering the affect of cad.

Can I view 2m winds on the euro for free anywhere?

You can view the wind on the Wunder site. I'm just not sure what "wind" it is referring to.

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snipped a bunch of stuff showing DT blowing it this winter....

“@DTWxriskcom: PAC NW FORECAST made by me last Thurs over at FB page working out PERFECTLY:”

Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition.

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Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition.

lol.. i just retweeted that

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it likes the secondary wave a little more but not as much as the gfs.. 850s are toast by then as well tho. warmer surface but who knows on that count.

I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not.

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I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not.

i havent looked at snowfall maps but the second low basically goes east and fizzles

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If 10% of that is snow, we will have a lot less fighting and much happier people in here.

I would say 0% of that is snow.....

next week looks warm if not torchy....a futile cold front comes through Tuesday, and then maybe a legit one at the end of the run.....but looks like 50s and maybe 60s a good bet next week.....

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