Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 looks like the euro thinks the gfs is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro is a no go on the Saturday event...maybe some light snow/sleet/zr to start for the favored areas....but then per the model, we'd all go to rain fairly quickly....this certainly bears watching in the areas that stay cold at the surface as we know models won't get that correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 storms a little slower.. someone near the md/pa border might get some sleet/zr.. pushing 50 in dc at 18z sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 looks like the euro thinks the gfs is out to lunch what a bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 it likes the secondary wave a little more but not as much as the gfs.. 850s are toast by then as well tho. warmer surface but who knows on that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 storms a little slower.. someone near the md/pa border might get some sleet/zr.. pushing 50 in dc at 18z sat. I think the model is more bullish than that....it is below 32 at 06z for HGR, FDK, MRB, etc and it is already starting to precipitate or close.....temps dont go above until probably 10-11z and even then there is still a bubble in N MD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 what a bummer they're not all that different at 850 but the euro is warmer at the surface by a good bit.. but it runs warm perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think the model is more bullish than that....it is below 32 at 06z for HGR, FDK, MRB, etc and it is already starting to precipitate or close.....temps dont go above until probably 10-11z and even then there is still a bubble in N MD.... it could be but barely if it is.. there is no precip shown at 6z in the area on accum which starts at .05" on my maps.. i guess there could be some less than that. at 12z there is a small area of .05" to the n/nw of the city mainly. at 12z 32 line hugs the border or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 they're not all that different at 850 but the euro is warmer at the surface by a good bit.. but it runs warm perhaps. yes, perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it could be but barely if it is.. there is no precip shown at 6z in the area on accum which starts at .05" on my maps.. i guess there could be some less than that. at 12z there is a small area of .05" to the n/nw of the city mainly. at 12z 32 line hugs the border or just north. yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here Valleys in Western Va sound likely for best chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I usually just look at raleigh's site for the euro but it doesn't have 2m winds and I really like looking at that when considering the affect of cad. Can I view 2m winds on the euro for free anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Valleys in Western Va sound likely for best chances even the "warm" euro has DC in upper 30s at 12z...depends how quickly precip get here....even at 18z, it has a 30 degree gradient between central PA and southern VA.....it is too far north to help us but depends where it sets up...it may be modeled too far north....this doesn't help you and me at all but if someone in NW VA can get ZR I'm all for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here i wouldnt be surprised if it's a little colder.. was just typing what i saw on the maps. we still probably need precip to get in early and even then im not sure what the upside is at least in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 not torchy per se', but euro gets us into the 50s on M/T/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 not torchy per se', but euro gets us into the 50s on M/T/W Guesses on upper or lower 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i wouldnt be surprised if it's a little colder.. was just typing what i saw on the maps. we still probably need precip to get in early and even then im not sure what the upside is at least in our backyards. 8 minutes of nonaccumulating sleet before transitioning to a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Guesses on upper or lower 50s? lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I usually just look at raleigh's site for the euro but it doesn't have 2m winds and I really like looking at that when considering the affect of cad. Can I view 2m winds on the euro for free anywhere? You can view the wind on the Wunder site. I'm just not sure what "wind" it is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 snipped a bunch of stuff showing DT blowing it this winter.... “@DTWxriskcom: PAC NW FORECAST made by me last Thurs over at FB page working out PERFECTLY:” Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. lol.. i just retweeted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. he never misses the PAC NW...he is always forecasting a big event there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it likes the secondary wave a little more but not as much as the gfs.. 850s are toast by then as well tho. warmer surface but who knows on that count. I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the changes west of GReenland are serious and this is happening run after run after run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Slight difference in track for the storm next Thursday between the Euro and GFS. Fairly significant differences for the entire week it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Slight difference in track for the storm next Thursday between the Euro and GFS. Fairly significant differences for the entire week it seems. it is a super wet run....like 2.5" of QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it is a super wet run....like 2.5" of QPF.... If 10% of that is snow, we will have a lot less fighting and much happier people in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not. i havent looked at snowfall maps but the second low basically goes east and fizzles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If 10% of that is snow, we will have a lot less fighting and much happier people in here. I would say 0% of that is snow..... next week looks warm if not torchy....a futile cold front comes through Tuesday, and then maybe a legit one at the end of the run.....but looks like 50s and maybe 60s a good bet next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the changes west of GReenland are serious and this is happening run after run after run Are you looking at 216-240hr? Or do you have Days 11-15 too? It looks like things are changing there Days 9-10, but it still all seems transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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