January storm threat discussion #2

[Midlo Snow Maker]

LOL...mega-torch is mega-FAIL on the 12z GFS with not 1, but 2 borderline cold rain/snow events perfectly bracketing the SNO-days of fun. This is all of course quite a departure from previous guidance, so take it with appropriate levels of salt.

raw 6z gfs temps through hr 180 boils me at 54 on the scorchiest of days right in the middle of DT's east coast

"heatwave"

Date/hour	FHr  Wind	SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF	CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
120118/0900Z   3  32013KT  46.2F	DZ	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10	0|  0|100
120118/1200Z   6  32007KT  36.3F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10	0|  0|  0
120118/1500Z   9  33011KT  37.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10	0|  0|  0
120118/1800Z  12  34010KT  40.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120118/2100Z  15  36007KT  38.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/0000Z  18  02005KT  30.0F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/0300Z  21  01005KT  29.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/0600Z  24  01004KT  27.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120119/0900Z  27  VRB02KT  25.5F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/1200Z  30  15004KT  26.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/1500Z  33  19007KT  34.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120119/1800Z  36  20011KT  41.7F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120119/2100Z  39  20009KT  43.0F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/0000Z  42  18009KT  38.7F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/0300Z  45  21009KT  37.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/0600Z  48  23007KT  35.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120120/0900Z  51  26006KT  33.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/1200Z  54  01006KT  30.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/1500Z  57  03006KT  32.9F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120120/1800Z  60  03005KT  37.9F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120120/2100Z  63  06005KT  37.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120121/0000Z  66  09005KT  31.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120121/0300Z  69  12005KT  29.7F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120121/0600Z  72  13005KT  29.3F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120121/0900Z  75  15005KT  34.2F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01	0|  0|100
120121/1200Z  78  18006KT  37.8F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03	0|  0|100
120121/1500Z  81  20009KT  46.0F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15	0|  0|100
120121/1800Z  84  21010KT  54.3F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29	0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120121/2100Z  87  21010KT  54.1F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41	0|  0|100
120122/0000Z  90  28004KT  51.1F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50	0|  0|100
120122/0300Z  93  02013KT  37.2F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.461	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96	0|  0|100
120122/0600Z  96  02011KT  34.5F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.280	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.24	0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120122/0900Z  99  02013KT  32.2F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.291	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53	0|  0|100
120122/1200Z 102  01010KT  31.8F  FZRA	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 0.417	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.44|| 1.94	0|  0|100
120122/1500Z 105  35011KT  32.0F  FZDZ	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.039	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 1.98	0|  0|100
120122/1800Z 108  36011KT  33.6F	DZ	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 1.99	0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120122/2100Z 111  36010KT  35.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 1.99	0|  0|  0
120123/0000Z 114  35007KT  33.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 1.99	0|  0|  0
120123/0300Z 117  33007KT  34.0F	DZ	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 2.00	0|  0|100
120123/0600Z 120  33006KT  33.6F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 2.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120123/0900Z 123  33004KT  33.4F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.48|| 2.00	0|  0|  0
120123/1200Z 126  28003KT  34.3F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120123/1500Z 129  25004KT  39.2F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120123/1800Z 132  20006KT  47.7F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120123/2100Z 135  23005KT  48.0F  RAIN	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01	0|  0|100
120124/0000Z 138  24005KT  45.0F	DZ	0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02	0|  0|100
120124/0300Z 141  27005KT  39.6F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02	0|  0|  0
120124/0600Z 144  27006KT  37.0F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120124/0900Z 147  27006KT  34.9F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120124/1200Z 150  29005KT  32.5F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120124/1500Z 153  27004KT  40.6F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120124/1800Z 156  27008KT  46.0F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120124/2100Z 159  30005KT  45.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/0000Z 162  29003KT  33.8F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/0300Z 165  VRB02KT  31.5F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/0600Z 168  08004KT  32.5F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120125/0900Z 171  10004KT  31.3F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/1200Z 174  13004KT  33.1F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/1500Z 177  16004KT  41.5F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
120125/1800Z 180  19006KT  49.6F		  0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000	0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00	0|  0|  0
============================================================================================================================

[Scuddz]

Interesting for the weekend. Can't wait to see the Euro. Is it even possible that this might be one that trends for us?

Well, that didn't take long at all.

[Ji]

Frankly, I need BB to be on board before I invest in this whole thing.

Bruce bodreau?

[WxUSAF]

raw 6z gfs temps through hr 180 boils me at 54 on the scorchiest of days right in the middle of DT's east coast

"heatwave"

But 00z Euro had RIC near 70F and the Euro has never been wrong at Day 7 ever. Start buying your sun screen and reserving your tee times now.

[Ji]

The torch may be one of the biggest model failures we've seen in a while.

DT lol. Literally what he forecasts the opposite happens

[Ji]

Chick were is my blowtorch

[mitchnick]

I'm starting to get the feeling you can't predict the weather

[mappy]

I'm starting to get the feeling you can't predict the weather

Just starting? lol

[WxUSAF]

Torch is still there, if you like believing the post-300hr GFS

But doesn't look like it would last long.

[IWC]

I'm starting to get the feeling you can't predict the weather

Now that's a news Flash

[mappy]

Torch is still there, if you like believing the post-300hr GFS

But doesn't look like it would last long.

Yeah, GFS delays it to days 11-15

a week ago that time period was super cold

[mitchnick]

Chick were is my blowtorch

God help Don Sutherland over in Forecasting & Discussion

[Ian]

the energy mets went overboard it seems.. they were all talking like the end of january would be the hottest end to january ever

[H2O]

I'm starting to get the feeling you can't predict the weather

coin flip. Heads/hot tails/cold

[MillzPirate]

A sleet storm wouldn't be so bad.... Gotta have something to break up the dull weather

[H2O]

the energy mets went overboard it seems.. they were all talking like the end of january would be the hottest end to january ever

good thing the GFS 12z run on 1-18-2012 is right

[Ian]

good thing the GFS 12z run on 1-18-2012 is right

all that matters is we've knocked out 2/3 or winter already... (ok, maybe closer to 1/2 but whatever)

[mitchnick]

the energy mets went overboard it seems.. they were all talking like the end of january would be the hottest end to january ever

it'll still get warm, but as I said earlier in this thread I believe, this NINA has acted more like a NINO, so shouldn't FEB get colder if it contues like a NINO like many do?

plus, patterns often start to breakdown in late JAN/early FEB...we just have to hope it does and morphs into something that increases our snow chances and not just NE's

[H2O]

all that matters is we've knocked out 2/3 or winter already... (ok, maybe closer to 1/2 but whatever)

half. March and April will be epic.

Even if the torch is pushed back to the beginning of Feb then it will eat up even more precious snow time.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DT lol. Literally what he forecasts the opposite happens

it is crazy how that is so true this year it is comical

HISTORIC PATTERN FLIP COMING????

http://www.wxrisk.co...rn-flip-coming/

HISTORIC PATTERN FLIP COMING ? |www.wxrisk.com

It is 1:00 AM and I probably should not be doing this but after looking at the latest data this evening I am so excited about the upcoming pattern change that I actually can sleep. I am reminded of the U2 song Something is about to give… I can feel it coming… and I think I know what it m

xrisk.com

‎1z GFS is going WOW.. winter time is coming... BIG time... someone REALLY needs to break out the TERRY TATE videos.... "woooo wooo Pain train is coming baby!!!... wooo wooo"... NUMEROUS threats for major league winter weather up and down the east coast

Wxrisk.com

http://www.wxrisk.co...omes-a-knockin/

PAMELA ANDERSON COMES A KNOCKIN’ | www.wxrisk.com

There is really no other way to say this other then coming out and saying this. My forecast– my scenario about how the second half the winter was going to evolve –is probably not going to be correct. I am not going to come out here and tell you that I am going to get the overall 500 MB pattern

Wxrisk.com

‎***ALERT ** prolonged WARM PERIOD coming for ALL of the of EAST coast -- from GA to New southern New England JAN 21-22-23-24-25-26 as BIG Low forms over Plains and Upper Midwest and STRONG ridge forms over se US.... strong south winds will pull up very mild air for Mid- late JAN

Wxrisk.com

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT*** 1st moderate ( some areas snow could be SIGNIFICANT) SNOW is LIKELY for much of OH western MD PA NY into New England as " over Running " event and weak Low pressure brings in period of snow JAN 21-22 ...

Wxrisk.com

‎*** NOTIFICATION ** 12z euro and to a lessor degree 12z GFS -- really going to town on warm dry period JAN 22-26 for entire east coast with sustained warmth... 70 degrees POSSIBLE over much of VA NC on 1 of those 5 days...

Chick were is my blowtorch

NICE

[stormtracker]

12z runs on Jan 30th will be telling.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looks like the GFS gets some precip in here pretty early, while the 850s are <0.

[WVclimo]

Looks like the GFS gets some precip in here pretty early, while the 850s are <0.

12Z GFS Bufkit for Martinsburg

120121/0600Z 66 16011KT 28.4F FZRA 0.02

120121/0900Z 69 16007KT 29.8F FZRA 0.02

120121/1200Z 72 10003KT 29.7F FZRA 0.16

----------------------------------------------

120121/1500Z 75 01004KT 29.8F FZRA 0.13

120121/1800Z 78 35006KT 32.0F FZRA 0.01

120121/2100Z 81 36005KT 32.9F RAIN 0.00

120122/0000Z 84 36008KT 30.9F 0.00

----------------------------------------------

120122/0300Z 87 03007KT 29.5F 0.00

120122/0600Z 90 03006KT 27.3F 0.00

120122/0900Z 93 02007KT 26.8F 0.00

120122/1200Z 96 04007KT 25.9F 0.00

----------------------------------------------

120122/1500Z 99 05005KT 27.5F 0.00

120122/1800Z 102 08005KT 28.9F FZRA 0.01

120122/2100Z 105 08005KT 29.3F FZRA 0.01

120123/0000Z 108 07004KT 29.7F 0.00

----------------------------------------------

120123/0300Z 111 VRB02KT 30.7F FZDZ 0.01

120123/0600Z 114 VRB02KT 31.5F FZDZ 0.01

[yoda]

WVClimo, can I have the link to EZF/IAD/DCA for that?

[eurojosh]

12z runs on Jan 30th will be telling.

Time to start a Feb storm threat thread?

[WVclimo]

Yoda,

The site I used doesn't have EZF. Doesn't have HGR either, which is a drag for marginal events with my location.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kiad

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca

[BethesdaWX]

^{CAD signature on GFS is strong, undersplayed as usual taken verbatim?}

[yoda]

Yoda,

The site I used doesn't have EZF. Doesn't have HGR either, which is a drag for marginal events with my location.

http://www.meteor.ia...l=gfs&site=kiad

http://www.meteor.ia...l=gfs&site=kdca

Okies. Thanks for the links

[MillzPirate]

^{CAD signature on GFS is strong, undersplayed as usual taken verbatim?}

I said last night that I strongly believe this will trend colder at the surface if the high placement maintains.

[Bob Chill]

it'll still get warm, but as I said earlier in this thread I believe, this NINA has acted more like a NINO, so shouldn't FEB get colder if it contues like a NINO like many do?

plus, patterns often start to breakdown in late JAN/early FEB...we just have to hope it does and morphs into something that increases our snow chances and not just NE's

It has acted Nino'ish. Especially with precip patterns out west. That's changing right now though. Typical Nina pac onslaught starting to hit the pac nw and the northern half of the rockies. Pac flow and ridge east/trough west with cold air nearby in northern plains and w canada is what you would expect to see in a Nina Feb.

With that being said, we can suvive a -pna with a decent push of -ao/nao. Won't get any amped up storms that way but you can easily get overrunning snow and cad ice/snow.

Stating the obvious here but the million dollar question is whether we can time a spike in the pna along with some variation of -ao/nao during Feb. The pna has cooperated from time to time already this winter but we can't buy a damn -nao to save our life.

It would be really unusual to get completely shut out of a useful -nao for the entire Dec-first half of Mar. I'll eventually finish my daily nao graphs for winters that were dominated by an early +nao and separate Nina's for better reference. What I'm seeing already is the potential for late blocky patterns but I don't know if the odds are favorable or against a strong late finish to the winter.