usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 he never misses the PAC NW...he is always forecasting a big event there Who in hades missed it? The pattern was a pretty obvious one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95) but with that pattern you might not get the high in place so you'd probably need a wave on a front once it got by us. It's still not a great pattern but beats the heck out of having a big giant upper low over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Who in hades missed it? The pattern was a pretty obvious one. http://instantrimshot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I agree, that map looks good, but the anamoly map doesn't with the High off the N.At coast; High Pressure over the pole looks good however http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif I know were kicking around the 384 gfs so that has it's own problems but there is general support to improve the atlantic towards the end of the month. I remember Nina winters in CO when I worked for the ski resorts. We would generally have a 10-15 day storm cycle followed up with a big dry ridge before the next cycle sets up. This year hasn't had the cycles that are typical for Nina's. However, the northern rockies are going to get pounded for what looks like the rest of the month. IF the Atlantic were to improve as advertised, the pac (or more specifically the pna) could be work very well in unison come the first part of Feb. God I hope so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the NAM isn't having any of the Saturday business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the NAM isn't having any of the Saturday business Lol. The NAM is a relative torch for the weekend. I still think that the only real excitement for this system is in SNE away from the coast. It's onto February and better times for us. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy You'll have company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM re-runs the pattern this year so that only Central-N NE are saved wouldn't shock me if that's how it ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You'll have company. I like the look of hour 144 and 192 next week on the 12z GFS. Not good enough by any means at this time but it may have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. JMA gives us snow initiallly at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 JMA has a really good wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm hoping it trends colder as it gets closer. Cause that is all we have. Hope. I know we probably torch next week but maybe we sneak in a quick cold shot and an quick night time 1-2". I'm going to be bullish on every threat until late march even if it complete fantasy I'm in the zwts camp too! The odds of exponentially better winter weather in Feb - Mar are pretty darn high considering what we have experienced so far. The worst Nina Feb/Mar periods are generally only during strong Nina's. This one has been mod at best so for. Tri-monthlies haven't even gone over 1.0 yet. Best matches for multi-year Nina's with current enso reading are 74-75 and 00-01. Wasn't march 01 a good winter month? I don't remember. Anyway, pretty tight cluster for ens ao/nao forecasts through the end of the month. Most bullish -ao forecast of the season so far and pretty much all ens agree at the nao going negative around the beg of Feb. Even hints of a +pna to go along with it. Feb is gonna be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Way too much negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Go ugly early was always my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Way too much negativity. is this a moderate nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 DT nailed Seattle snow forecast..went 1-2 feet...they got 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is this a moderate nina? so much for Dec being the best month of a nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 *Rain Pic* Yeah, DCA is going to be a bust.. but thats to be expected. CBE to DMW still have a potencial winter p-type storm coming up though, lets at least be happy for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sleet? Its the third image that comes up when you type in "rain" to google images.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow is that heavy snow right outside your apartment?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Borderline. Probably weak. ONI will probably max at -.9C http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol- I found the stats. well below normal temps, almost no snow, and 2 coastals that looked just like the picture Ian posted. Anyway, odds are still good for some winter weather of note over the next 8 weeks. One storm deep enough to sled on is all I ask for. One day @ the hill with the kids. Reasonable request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Sounds about right. Not that it matters much as a 2nd year Nina. It is legit. I don't think there is anything weak about it though with the -ao I dont think any enso state stood much of a chance. it's just a darn shame that snow lovers in our area have got to suffer like this last year was real tough after 09/10 as we all suspected our area wasn't capable of putting together great back-to-back years, but with PHL doing it and being so close made it frustrating this year has been nothing short of evil I won't give up because I can't; I've held on till' the bitter end every year since 72/73, and I won't stop this year but it sure ain't much fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. Lol... I started this winter as an optimist, but my therapist told me that traveling with a snow shovel at my side was going too far. I now just take it as it comes. Right now, it doesn't look good for snow this month, but a fluke event would be welcomed. Feb into March looks much better to me for our area. I do like your enthusiasm, though. It somewhat balances Ian's posts. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 One thing that kinda makes sense (in a really bad way) is the state of the NAO and AO has had a pretty large bias towards negative during winter since the winter of 05-06 and it had to give at some point. The entire decade of the 60's had that bias too so I was of course hopeful going into this winter thinking that we were in the middle of a similar decadal cycle. The winter temps for Nina's in the 60's were decidedly cold for the east. This winter didn't play nice though. We could still be in a larger scale -ao/nao cycle but this winter will stand out to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS has a snow event next Thursday. Euro is 60. Euro is only right 7 days out when it shows warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm done with reality. Reality sucks. All I am asking for is to sloppily make out with the ugliest girl in the bar at 3am. 2-3 hours of -SN into a wedge before it gets washed away by rain. I'm not being unreasonable. At this point, I'd make out with Al Sharpton in the bar at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At this point, I'd make out with Al Sharpton in the bar at 3am. but he's African-American and a Democrat don't ya' just hate those types! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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