Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the Tuesday storm/front might be frozen on the front/back ends...lost the day 8/9 threat...Day 10 pattern is hideous if there was a day 8/9 threat would it be cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow so much anger over a snow prediction. Step away from the ledge. It will be OK. There will be more snow in your lifetime. To put it nicely... Bob just "Chill" I don't know...it's a prediction based on really no scientific reasoning whatsoever. If you defended your prediction with science maybe it would be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 if there was a day 8/9 threat would it be cold enough? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 just a clipper north of buffalo and a big storm heading into canada from minn. there's some -24C air behind it in the dakotas. but also another firehose hitting the west coast and plenty of warm over the whole southern 2/3 of the country. Until we get a -NAO(west-based) la nina will continue to prevail with the firehose blasting our area. For us it's all about the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow so much anger over a snow prediction. Step away from the ledge. It will be OK. There will be more snow in your lifetime. To put it nicely... Bob just "Chill" lol Ok, it can snow until 3am on the 24th as long as it's washed away before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Until we get a -NAO(west-based) la nina will continue to prevail with the firehose blasting our area. For us it's all about the NAO. Pretty much.....pretty much... I started running my daily nao graphs for +AO Decembers last night. I have a ways to go but a +nao overall appears to be the trend. Fed/Mar seems to have the best chance @ a more persistent -nao. I'm only a few years in though. I think I'll run them for both +AO decemembers and all Nina's. I'll post what I find hopefully this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Pretty much.....pretty much... I started running my daily nao graphs for +AO Decembers last night. I have a ways to go but a +nao overall appears to be the trend. Fed/Mar seems to have the best chance @ a more persistent -nao. I'm only a few years in though. I think I'll run them for both +AO decemembers and all Nina's. I'll post what I find hopefully this weekend. Chill- Do you see a -NAO 1/24-1/26? Perhaps some blockiness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As one might have guessed, the NAM looks no better for Thurs night. Actually looks worse to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Chill- Do you see a -NAO 1/24-1/26? Perhaps some blockiness? I am not Bob, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. No. I am afraid you are going to be crushed by the PAC firehose and ten other unfavorable variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am not Bob, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. No. I am afraid you are going to be crushed by the PAC firehose and ten other unfavorable variables. nice avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 nice avatar Thank you for providing the professional graphic. After seeing the latest models and Wes's projected temperatures for end of January this morning, I decided it is time to join. Embracing the torch is easier than trying to deny it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thank you for providing the professional graphic. After seeing the latest models and Wes's projected temperatures for end of January this morning, I decided it is time to join. Embracing the torch is easier than trying to deny it. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Chill- Do you see a -NAO 1/24-1/26? Perhaps some blockiness? On a serious note I suppose it's possible. ENS NAO forecasts are not as robust as the current AO forecasts but that doesn't mean too much. IF and I mean a massive IF the AO does in fact go negative 2+ stand dev then it will bring the NAO with it. East based or west based? Who knows. My guess would be west based because any n atl ridging that has been showing up has been backing into greenland from the east (and has been transient at best). One encouraging sign is that the current AO forecast is the most robust it has been for a -ao that I have seen pretty much all season. The forecasts have been busting low most of the winter but the majority of members are currently taking it to -2 with some going all the way down to below -4. Regardless of the 24-26th timeframe it does appear that any precip threat over the coming week or 2 is worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As one might have guessed, the NAM looks no better for Thurs night. Actually looks worse to me. Our clipper doesn't look all that hot either on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The only thing that excites me about this storm is going to be the wind and wind chills behiend the front. The western slopes are going to approach High Wind Warning criteria and the NAM even tries to squeeze in 35 kts in the Mt.Vortmax highlands. Wind Chills elsewhere are going to drop down into the 10's Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 On a serious note I suppose it's possible. ENS NAO forecasts are not as robust as the current AO forecasts but that doesn't mean too much. IF and I mean a massive IF the AO does in fact go negative 2+ stand dev then it will bring the NAO with it. East based or west based? Who knows. My guess would be west based because any n atl ridging that has been showing up has been backing into greenland from the east (and has been transient at best). One encouraging sign is that the current AO forecast is the most robust it has been for a -ao that I have seen pretty much all season. The forecasts have been busting low most of the winter but the majority of members are currently taking it to -2 with some going all the way down to below -4. Regardless of the 24-26th timeframe it does appear that any precip threat over the coming week or 2 is worth paying attention to. Even if the nao gets mildly negative the positive anomaly is to far south to do much good. You need high heights near or just south of nova scotia and we don't have that. The way things are configured it's easy to have a little ridging over the southeast and to have most of the u.s in some sort of southerly flow. We need the pacific to change again as it is ugly for us. The firehose keps pac flow entering the country.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even if the nao gets mildly negative the positive anomaly is to far south to do much good. You need high heights near or just south of nova scotia and we don't have that. The way things are configured it's easy to have a little ridging over the southeast and to have most of the u.s in some sort of southerly flow. We need the pacific to change again as it is ugly for us. The firehose keps pac flow entering the country.. Yessir. Shortly after my post I started looking closer at the pac on the euro and gfs. Euro in particular is looking pretty awful for days 8-10 (and beyond I assume). +nao and -pna in conjunction with low heights extending from the pac coast way out into the goa. Hard to deny the very real chance of not only having the us flooded with pac air but having a rigde in the east. Ouch. Blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nice slug of moisture headed this way. Now close all the blinds, watch the radar, and pretend that it's 20 degrees colder than it really is. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 JB tweeting the JMA is colder than other models days 6-10. Also tweeted the EURO ensembles are colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This, over and over again. Someone mentioned a post or so back that the vortex moved from central Va to NC in one run. Next run might have it SC or NY. South Carolina it is! (on its way) Now we can hope that the fish, excuse me, models flop back. With NAM, GFS, Euro showing next to nothing for tomorrow night and Sunday, can anyone recommend a more friendly model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Even if the nao gets mildly negative the positive anomaly is to far south to do much good. You need high heights near or just south of nova scotia and we don't have that. The way things are configured it's easy to have a little ridging over the southeast and to have most of the u.s in some sort of southerly flow. We need the pacific to change again as it is ugly for us. The firehose keps pac flow entering the country.. Thanks usedtube. What do you think of this weekends clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 JB tweeting the JMA is colder than other models days 6-10. Also tweeted the EURO ensembles are colder too. Euro turned MARGINALLY colder at 850mb and 500mb along the immediate East Coast on the 6-10 day composite (2m temps were about the same), which means absolutely nothing given typical run-to-run variability. Doesn't change the game at all. JB is grasping at whatever straws he can (as usual). If he says anything about cold or snow, ignore it unless there's a good backing from the knowledgeable mets/enthusiasts on the forum. 11-15 day Euro Ens. continues to show the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks usedtube. What do you think of this weekends clipper? it looks pretty sick on the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it looks pretty sick on the latest runs. Life support is more like it, with the lawyer with the last will and testament nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Life support is more like it, with the lawyer with the last will and testament nearby. hey, my kids have got to eat too ya' know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow. I miss a day and the models are just wretched. Time to break out the golf clubs for some January action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Life support is more like it, with the lawyer with the last will and testament nearby. What idiot thougt we were getting 1-3" in the first place? They are going to bust by hundreds if not thousands of flakes.Unbelievable the stupidity of people this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think that that this winter got off to a bad start with nearly everyone expecting a cold December. When that outcome failed miserably, the rush to a pattern change was longed for----starting in mid-December and popping up every few days after that. In reality, the level-headed weather enthusiasts/mets have never really bought into the pattern change hype and that spoke volumes (to me , anyway). Now, the next 10 days will surely feature some cold, but it's not a particularly exciting pattern. It also looks very likely that January will go out very mild. Remember that seeing pattern changes several weeks in advance is not easy at all. In mid January 2010, I remember a post by Wes over at Eastern that focused on the terrible January pattern in the mid-atlantic at that time and that prospects for snow for the rest of Jan 2010 looked dim. However, it was in that post that Wes was starting to see signs of a change to a much better Feb( strat warming/neg NAO development/negative EPO). Now mind you, this was just 2 weeks before the onset of one of the most prolific patterns we have seen around here and the signs were just emerging (as seen by one of the best metorological minds that I know of). It was then that I knew that better times were ahead (but I am sure that Wes would admit that even he could have not invisioned the magnitude of the historic Feb outcome from 2-3 weeks away). Just to be clear, I am not in any way saying that this Feb is going to be anything like Feb 2010. I'm just saying that the calls for Winter's death needs to be put into perspective. Just because January is likely to turn mild again, doesn't mean it can't snow in Feb/March. So maybe that optomistic post from Wes never comes this winter, but it may...... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow. I miss a day and the models are just wretched. Time to break out the golf clubs for some January action. Models are wretched but looking at the 18z run of the GFS it seems to my non-met eyes that what is depicted looks so disjointed that it makes me think that the data being collected is confusing the model. If true, can a met tell me why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 hey, my kids have got to eat too ya' know! The problem is with your hourly rates they are eating filet mignon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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