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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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While this winter could never see a true -NAO and the ECMWF extended range could continue to advertise a -NAO that never comes, it is downright unscientific to claim that this model behavior is like 01-02. These models are not the same as they were then and the pattern is much different. January 2002, 2006 etc. make this January seem frigid...so far.

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While this winter could never see a true -NAO and the ECMWF extended range could continue to advertise a -NAO that never comes, it is downright unscientific to claim that this model behavior is like 01-02. These models are not the same as they were then and the pattern is much different. January 2002, 2006 etc. make this January seem frigid...so far.

Couldn't agree more. Now, since Ji is not here, I will ask, "when is it going to snow here?"

MDstorm

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they have been at day 10 and beyond the whole winter-just like 01-02...time to pack it in

This is actually the first time all season I've seen a strong -NAO signal on the Euro ensembles...we've continuously been saying in the New England forum how all winter the Atlantic looks to remain cruddy every time we looked at the ensembles...which is why we said maybe a gradient pattern develops during this current -EPO/-WPO regime.

But for the first time all winter, they are actually showing a solid -NAO...for a few runs now. Still might not happen, but they haven't previously showed it.

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if you look at the 700mb maps on the NAM, the Saturday system, north or not, looks pathetic

don't get me wrong, I'd take any snow we could get, it's just not that impressive a "storm" so nobody does well it seems (and I'm not just basing it on the 0Z NAM, it does show the strength, or lack thereof, pretty well)

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This is actually the first time all season I've seen a strong -NAO signal on the Euro ensembles...we've continuously been saying in the New England forum how all winter the Atlantic looks to remain cruddy every time we looked at the ensembles...which is why we said maybe a gradient pattern develops during this current -EPO/-WPO regime.

But for the first time all winter, they are actually showing a solid -NAO...for a few runs now. Still might not happen, but they haven't previously showed it.

Now it is one thing to have a non-meteorologist make these comments and be wrong because most people don't have access to the ECMWF ensembles. However, I have seen actual meteorologists say statements like that and it is infuriating. Saying things like "I've seen this before" and "models always show it 10 days later" is not being scientific--if that's your goal. If you are just bantering, then it isn't a big deal.

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Now it is one thing to have a non-meteorologist make these comments and be wrong because most people don't have access to the ECMWF ensembles. However, I have seen actual meteorologists say statements like that and it is infuriating. Saying things like "I've seen this before" and "models always show it 10 days later" is not being scientific--if that's your goal. If you are just bantering, then it isn't a big deal.

Yeah, the great thing about a forum like this though is we can go back and look at posts from earlier in the winter...we probably commented on the EC ensembles every day since Dec 1...or nearly every day and I will bet nobody can come across a post that talks about a raging -NAO on the EC ensembles all winter...maybe a post about a transient north Atlantic ridge or a brief Iceland/UK block. But almost all the posts will talk about it remaining positive with the PV entrenched over Baffin Island.

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Yeah, the great thing about a forum like this though is we can go back and look at posts from earlier in the winter...we probably commented on the EC ensembles every day since Dec 1...or nearly every day and I will bet nobody can come across a post that talks about a raging -NAO on the EC ensembles all winter...maybe a post about a transient north Atlantic ridge or a brief Iceland/UK block. But almost all the posts will talk about it remaining positive with the PV entrenched over Baffin Island.

There have been a few comments about a -NAO showing up but were always followed by "it's transient"

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There have been a few comments about a -NAO showing up but were always followed by "it's transient"

Yes, there have been a couple times this winter where we had some models showing a "technical" -NAO...but it was based off a transient ridge in the North Atlantic even while the PV was still near Baffin Island. We actually had the NAO briefly go negative about a week or so ago on the CPC numbers...but it was pretty useless.

True -NAO blocking in the sense we are talking about would be much higher heights over Greenland and the Davis Straight...something we haven't come close to this winter. No guarantee the ensembles are correct with it given how far out it is, but its been consistently showing up the last couple of days and it showed up on the weeklies if we want to give any credit for that.

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I firmly believe we'll get "payback" in mid to late February or even March. Just one big storm to end the pathetic season. I just wish we can get it over with and move on.

For what it's worth and not worth much probably....In February, for DCA, I had an interesting spike of activity during the time frame you speak about. In these really awful years like this one, there was a spike Feb 20-25 and again Mar 10-15 or something like that.

Now take this with a grain because my last spike just passed and it ended up being a light snow event in N VA / S MD and a few snow shower days. So while this spike did come through with some snow in the area, it wasn't what I thought this spike should mean. lol

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I'd rather early Feb. Sun angles in late feb and march suck

Ehh..I think any snow lover would be OK with an early March storm at this point. 08/09 really only had two accumulating events the entire season. Remember the anticipation before the March storm? The 1 inch qpf on all the models? The Saturday night glee? The March storm was plenty exciting and stuck around for a bit before the torch.

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For what it's worth and not worth much probably....In February, for DCA, I had an interesting spike of activity during the time frame you speak about. In these really awful years like this one, there was a spike Feb 20-25 and again Mar 10-15 or something like that.

Now take this with a grain because my last spike just passed and it ended up being a light snow event in N VA / S MD and a few snow shower days. So while this spike did come through with some snow in the area, it wasn't what I thought this spike should mean. lol

Hey man, your grains of salt are like pillars around here. Encouraging to say the least. If it doesn't happen, we'll jus take it out on mitchnick, so you're good.

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My area is still very much in the game through mid-March. So if it comes to that, I'd still be happy. The 6" of daytime snowfall I had on 3/16/07 was legit, and gave no appearance of the lateness in the season.

3/1/09 offered nothing here but an incredible cutoff at the Blue Ridge that persisted for days on the models and then was realized.

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Hey man, your grains of salt are like pillars around here. Encouraging to say the least. If it doesn't happen, we'll jus take it out on mitchnick, so you're good.

LOL ....

Well we still have what....5 more days or so left of this pattern (-WPO) that everyone said wasn't a pattern change (it was folks, sorry...). There is a low threat Thursday for snow showers into Maryland (good instability, convergence and jet) and of course the Saturday storm which will likely be a thump snow further north but certainly can bring some winter to the area. This storm heavily relies on the first two systems and how much they intensify. Glad to see our current storm down to 988mb in Quebec/Ontario. Keep bombing!

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1029 high in prime position throughout the storm.... Good CAD... Could see this trending colder especially at 2m

the first high slides east and helps warm things up. that's not going to help if it happens. the vort pass is better but it's also slower. slow seems to be the enemy overall.

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the first high slides east and helps warm things up. that's not going to help if it happens. the vort pass is better but it's also slower. slow seems to be the enemy overall.

Even you have to admit the GFS opened the door to a little wiggle room for a wintry event Saturday.

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Is the 6z GFS trying to get us back in the game? The Euro hasn't exactly slammed the door on us either. I haven't given up. Foolish to the end.

The GFS this morning is funky with that second low dragging through south of us. Hadn't seen that before with this system (I don't think I remember it anyway)

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Is the 6z GFS trying to get us back in the game? The Euro hasn't exactly slammed the door on us either. I haven't given up. Foolish to the end.

The GFS this morning is funky with that second low dragging through south of us. Hadn't seen that before with this system (I don't think I remember it anyway)

I don't know what you are seeing but the 6z follows suit with the previous runs and warms up well before precip starts. Maybe far W MD can see something as 850s are close out there.

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I don't know what you are seeing but the 6z follows suit with the previous runs and warms up well before precip starts. Maybe far W MD can see something as 850s are close out there.

I was curious why 2m temps look pretty good but 850 is so warm on 6z especially with the low position and HP to the NW...is it the low to the north? You see any potential with this because it does look different than 12Z yesterday

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Is the 6z GFS trying to get us back in the game? The Euro hasn't exactly slammed the door on us either. I haven't given up. Foolish to the end.

The GFS this morning is funky with that second low dragging through south of us. Hadn't seen that before with this system (I don't think I remember it anyway)

I thought you gave up yesterday after the 12z runs? You know, cause they show a "good idea" of what will happen :bag:

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Sorry so long in replying. Busy morning.

Here's what I was interested in.

You bring up an interesting point... verbatim it's sleet across the northern areas and freezing rain around Fredericksburg at the 96hr. However, without support from the Euro and with the NAM looking more to the north I wouldn't favor that solution.

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