Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it'll still get warm, but as I said earlier in this thread I believe, this NINA has acted more like a NINO, so shouldn't FEB get colder if it contues like a NINO like many do? plus, patterns often start to breakdown in late JAN/early FEB...we just have to hope it does and morphs into something that increases our snow chances and not just NE's It has acted Nino'ish. Especially with precip patterns out west. That's changing right now though. Typical Nina pac onslaught starting to hit the pac nw and the northern half of the rockies. Pac flow and ridge east/trough west with cold air nearby in northern plains and w canada is what you would expect to see in a Nina Feb. With that being said, we can suvive a -pna with a decent push of -ao/nao. Won't get any amped up storms that way but you can easily get overrunning snow and cad ice/snow. Stating the obvious here but the million dollar question is whether we can time a spike in the pna along with some variation of -ao/nao during Feb. The pna has cooperated from time to time already this winter but we can't buy a damn -nao to save our life. It would be really unusual to get completely shut out of a useful -nao for the entire Dec-first half of Mar. I'll eventually finish my daily nao graphs for winters that were dominated by an early +nao and separate Nina's for better reference. What I'm seeing already is the potential for late blocky patterns but I don't know if the odds are favorable or against a strong late finish to the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 looks like the euro thinks the gfs is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 storms a little slower.. someone near the md/pa border might get some sleet/zr.. pushing 50 in dc at 18z sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 looks like the euro thinks the gfs is out to lunch what a bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 it likes the secondary wave a little more but not as much as the gfs.. 850s are toast by then as well tho. warmer surface but who knows on that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 what a bummer they're not all that different at 850 but the euro is warmer at the surface by a good bit.. but it runs warm perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think the model is more bullish than that....it is below 32 at 06z for HGR, FDK, MRB, etc and it is already starting to precipitate or close.....temps dont go above until probably 10-11z and even then there is still a bubble in N MD.... it could be but barely if it is.. there is no precip shown at 6z in the area on accum which starts at .05" on my maps.. i guess there could be some less than that. at 12z there is a small area of .05" to the n/nw of the city mainly. at 12z 32 line hugs the border or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 they're not all that different at 850 but the euro is warmer at the surface by a good bit.. but it runs warm perhaps. yes, perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here Valleys in Western Va sound likely for best chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I usually just look at raleigh's site for the euro but it doesn't have 2m winds and I really like looking at that when considering the affect of cad. Can I view 2m winds on the euro for free anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 yeah...my increment starts at 0.01 and the entire area is covered by 12z even well to the east but looks like it will be light...temps never really seem to warm in the wedge area the whole weekend by much and then dip down again....I'd bet against a big deal, but if there is legit CAD the models won't be of much use....won't help us probably here i wouldnt be surprised if it's a little colder.. was just typing what i saw on the maps. we still probably need precip to get in early and even then im not sure what the upside is at least in our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 not torchy per se', but euro gets us into the 50s on M/T/W Guesses on upper or lower 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I usually just look at raleigh's site for the euro but it doesn't have 2m winds and I really like looking at that when considering the affect of cad. Can I view 2m winds on the euro for free anywhere? You can view the wind on the Wunder site. I'm just not sure what "wind" it is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 snipped a bunch of stuff showing DT blowing it this winter.... “@DTWxriskcom: PAC NW FORECAST made by me last Thurs over at FB page working out PERFECTLY:” Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. lol.. i just retweeted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it likes the secondary wave a little more but not as much as the gfs.. 850s are toast by then as well tho. warmer surface but who knows on that count. I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Slight difference in track for the storm next Thursday between the Euro and GFS. Fairly significant differences for the entire week it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 it is a super wet run....like 2.5" of QPF.... If 10% of that is snow, we will have a lot less fighting and much happier people in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I have a hard time reading the Euro surface pressure maps, but the "motion" of the snowfall maps at about 100 hours would suggest to me at least some low pressure to our south turning up the coast a little. Don't know if my interpretation is accurate or not. i havent looked at snowfall maps but the second low basically goes east and fizzles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 the changes west of GReenland are serious and this is happening run after run after run Are you looking at 216-240hr? Or do you have Days 11-15 too? It looks like things are changing there Days 9-10, but it still all seems transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i havent looked at snowfall maps but the second low basically goes east and fizzles Thanks, Ian. It's hard to tell on those maps. Is this the first run of the Euro that has shown this second low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks, Ian. It's hard to tell on those maps. Is this the first run of the Euro that has shown this second low? i dont thnik it's shown it the last few but i remember commenting on it when mitch posted a 500 map the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean continues to show a very favorable pattern by the end of the month into early February. -NAO, neutral to positive PNA, -EPO and probably a weak -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean continues to show a very favorable pattern by the end of the month into early February. -NAO, neutral to positive PNA, -EPO and probably a weak -AO. is this today's 12Z run because it doesn't look so hot to me??? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think it is. The trough starts in the west and slowly moves east to us by the end. Ridging over Greenland and along the West Coast. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I like Dave. But, wow. Someone seriously needs to nominate the guy for a #Shorty award in arrogance. Because he would blow away the competition. Besides being arrogant is this even true? Or is this your point because it is not true? It seems to me the forecast for Seattle Metro proper busted and they are getting alot less snow that originally forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 is this today's 12Z run because it doesn't look so hot to me??? http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif I don't know Mitch. Looks pretty decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 if you have a west coast/wstern Canada ridge extending all the way to AK, you don't even really need a block to get a decent event.... (i.e. Feb 95) But does it stay put long enough for something to spin up? The buzz word for this winter so far has been "transient" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gotta slow down the flow at some point. Everything has been so progressive that nothing has time to manifest,except the AK vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I don't know Mitch. Looks pretty decent here. I agree, that map looks good, but the anamoly map doesn't with the High off the N.At coast; High Pressure over the pole looks good however http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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