WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW, Wunderground Euro maps still show some snow for everyone north of Rt-50 and I-66 on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I very much hope that it trends back to the colder solution. Mitch seemed to think earlier that it would depend alot on the Thurs system. Hope it goes our way for once. However, I think we have a pretty good idea how this is going to go as far as snow is concerned. I said earlier that I thought the morning runs today would give us a pretty good idea, and I think they have. Some took exception to me saying that, and if I'm wrong now, I'll glad take the brow beating. But I doubt it. It's funny that models can show you exactly what you want, be wrong, change to exactly what you don't want. But almost never do they show you exactly what you don't want, be wrong, change to exactly what you do want. Congratulations! You called it, guess you can leave this thread now. BYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 As near as I can tell, 12 hours is about as long as any "threat" makes it this winter before going away on the models. This one didn't even last that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW, Wunderground Euro maps still show some snow for everyone north of Rt-50 and I-66 on Saturday morning. Dang, I live S of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 As near as I can tell, 12 hours is about as long as any "threat" makes it this winter before going away on the models. This one didn't even last that long. 0z will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Congratulations! You called it, guess you can leave this thread now. BYE You just aren't very bright, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z will bring it back That's like an echo of a post from '09-'10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You just aren't very bright, are you? I'm good I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm good Well, you do have a point. It did move in the direction of the GFS. I suppose I'm a sucker, but it hasn't completely thrown us under yet. I'll hope for a better trend, but I really don't see it happening. I'll be more than happy to be wrong. It isn't that big of a deal. Your torch will destroy it anyway. If we were going to go in the deep freeze on Sunday for about a week, I'd be much more upset about potentially losing snow on Sat. I still think we both have a "good idea" where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, you do have a point. It did move in the direction of the GFS. I suppose I'm a sucker, but it hasn't completely thrown us under yet. I'll hope for a better trend, but I really don't see it happening. I'll be more than happy to be wrong. It isn't that big of a deal. Your torch will destroy it anyway. If we were going to go in the deep freeze on Sunday for about a week, I'd be much more upset about potentially losing snow on Sat. I still think we both have a "good idea" where this is going. Of course I have a point and I am very bright. You don't care about this threat, as you have a "good idea" that it is going to rain. So BYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 we need the precip to be quicker I think...maybe we should focus on the Thursday night flizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 we need the precip to be quicker I think...maybe we should focus on the Thursday night flizzard! in my days of being a single man, one of our favorite sayings was "If a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them" that old addage seems apropo for snow possibilities this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 in my days of being a single man, one of our favorite sayings was "If a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them" that old addage seems apropo for snow possibilities this winter I think our standards are as low as can be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 in my days of being a single man, one of our favorite sayings was "If a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them" that old addage seems apropo for snow possibilities this winter I'm not sure how much lower my standards can get. I get excited over a heavy frost these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I thought the end of the most recent gfs and euro stunk pretty bad. I've been trying to find an optimistic sign that the stubborn craptastic pattern that has plagued us all winter may be releasing its grip but I can't. I got a little excited when I saw the MJO emerging in phase 6 but that was quickly shut down by the ens forecast. It ain't pretty and there ain't much mjo love anytime in the near future. I'm at the point now where I would declare victory with a minor cad ice event where an old stale seasonable airmass was briefly locked in before waa eroded it into a raw and cold rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 supposedly the euro ensembles have a very strong Greenland block D11-D15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 supposedly the euro ensembles have a very strong Greenland block D11-D15 they have been at day 10 and beyond the whole winter-just like 01-02...time to pack it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 they have been at day 10 and beyond the whole winter-just like 01-02...time to pack it in wrong forum....if you are going to penetrate our threads, at least be someone with a modicum of knowledge about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro ens mean looks a tad warmer at 850 for Sat. morning. I guess that's a neg. Look a tad colder than at the same time yesterday. I guess that's a pos. The 18z NAM is a tad colder at 0z Sat than the 12z run was. I guess that's a pos. It would seem that a period of some type of wintry precip is likely Sat morning. Sure wish it would turn out to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro ens mean looks a tad warmer at 850 for Sat. morning. I guess that's a neg. Look a tad colder than at the same time yesterday. I guess that's a pos. The 18z NAM is a tad colder at 0z Sat than the 12z run was. I guess that's a pos. It would seem that a period of some type of wintry precip is likely Sat morning. Sure wish it would turn out to be snow. Gonna need that moisture to stream in faster either way.. Need it to trend back to a fri night-sat morn type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z doesn't look good for snow, but it doesn't look good for the mega torch either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z doesn't look good for snow, but it doesn't look good for the mega torch either. Nail in the coffin for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z doesn't look good for snow, but it doesn't look good for the mega torch either. Obviously our chances out here are better for some frozen. But at this point its just a rain storm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We will take what we can get. Maybe a flurry or two on Thursday night? The Saturday storm seems to be moving just a tad to far north for us and rain, once again, will be the main course. Tough winter. I am rooting for a fluke between now and end of next week and then hope we can get some cold air in here and a better storm track for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think our standards are as low as can be.... Lookin forward to the flizzard. Pathetic really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Nail in the coffin for Saturday Ah yes, the 18z run 4 days out. The traditional "nail in the coffin" - LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ah yes, the 18z run 4 days out. The traditional "nail in the coffin" - LOL. It looked worse than the 12z. Unless the system speeds back up to Friday night/early Saturday... its going to be rain and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 From what it looks like, January looks done in my book. I was thinking in my lifetime I have only been shut out 1 in 97-98 I received 0.1in that winter. 1972-1973 was 0.1in as well. Those 2 years were El Nino years and this is a La Nina. Could this be a first time La Nina shut out? I really do not think were getting shutout this winter but my patience has fallen dramatically. Still have my fingers crossed for February. Time will only tell right? It's not that I am weather nut and I am in college for my MET degree. I have a 3 year old daughter that got a sled for Christmas and she ask me everyday when are we going to go sledding. I tell her we have to wait till it snows, but she does not understand. She knows I am in school for weather and she says if it does not snow can you make it.LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ah yes, the 18z run 4 days out. The traditional "nail in the coffin" - LOL. This winter, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I suspect that this will continue to trend northward. When all is said and done, the only places that see meaningful snow along I95 will be in SNE (away from the coast). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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