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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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I very much hope that it trends back to the colder solution. Mitch seemed to think earlier that it would depend alot on the Thurs system. Hope it goes our way for once.

However, I think we have a pretty good idea how this is going to go as far as snow is concerned. I said earlier that I thought the morning runs today would give us a pretty good idea, and I think they have. Some took exception to me saying that, and if I'm wrong now, I'll glad take the brow beating. But I doubt it.

It's funny that models can show you exactly what you want, be wrong, change to exactly what you don't want. But almost never do they show you exactly what you don't want, be wrong, change to exactly what you do want.

Congratulations! You called it, guess you can leave this thread now. BYE :)

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You just aren't very bright, are you?

I'm good

I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold.

:D

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I'm good

:D

Well, you do have a point. It did move in the direction of the GFS. I suppose I'm a sucker, but it hasn't completely thrown us under yet. I'll hope for a better trend, but I really don't see it happening. I'll be more than happy to be wrong.

It isn't that big of a deal. Your torch will destroy it anyway. If we were going to go in the deep freeze on Sunday for about a week, I'd be much more upset about potentially losing snow on Sat.

I still think we both have a "good idea" where this is going. :maprain:

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Well, you do have a point. It did move in the direction of the GFS. I suppose I'm a sucker, but it hasn't completely thrown us under yet. I'll hope for a better trend, but I really don't see it happening. I'll be more than happy to be wrong.

It isn't that big of a deal. Your torch will destroy it anyway. If we were going to go in the deep freeze on Sunday for about a week, I'd be much more upset about potentially losing snow on Sat.

I still think we both have a "good idea" where this is going. :maprain:

Of course I have a point and I am very bright. You don't care about this threat, as you have a "good idea" that it is going to rain. So BYE :)

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I thought the end of the most recent gfs and euro stunk pretty bad. I've been trying to find an optimistic sign that the stubborn craptastic pattern that has plagued us all winter may be releasing its grip but I can't.

I got a little excited when I saw the MJO emerging in phase 6 but that was quickly shut down by the ens forecast. It ain't pretty and there ain't much mjo love anytime in the near future.

I'm at the point now where I would declare victory with a minor cad ice event where an old stale seasonable airmass was briefly locked in before waa eroded it into a raw and cold rain...... :cry:

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The Euro ens mean looks a tad warmer at 850 for Sat. morning. I guess that's a neg. Look a tad colder than at the same time yesterday. I guess that's a pos. The 18z NAM is a tad colder at 0z Sat than the 12z run was. I guess that's a pos.

It would seem that a period of some type of wintry precip is likely Sat morning. Sure wish it would turn out to be snow.

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The Euro ens mean looks a tad warmer at 850 for Sat. morning. I guess that's a neg. Look a tad colder than at the same time yesterday. I guess that's a pos. The 18z NAM is a tad colder at 0z Sat than the 12z run was. I guess that's a pos.

It would seem that a period of some type of wintry precip is likely Sat morning. Sure wish it would turn out to be snow.

Gonna need that moisture to stream in faster either way.. Need it to trend back to a fri night-sat morn type

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We will take what we can get. Maybe a flurry or two on Thursday night? The Saturday storm seems to be moving just a tad to far north for us and rain, once again, will be the main course. Tough winter. I am rooting for a fluke between now and end of next week and then hope we can get some cold air in here and a better storm track for February.

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From what it looks like, January looks done in my book. I was thinking in my lifetime I have only been shut out 1 in 97-98 I received 0.1in that winter. 1972-1973 was 0.1in as well. Those 2 years were El Nino years and this is a La Nina. Could this be a first time La Nina shut out? I really do not think were getting shutout this winter but my patience has fallen dramatically. Still have my fingers crossed for February. Time will only tell right? It's not that I am weather nut and I am in college for my MET degree. I have a 3 year old daughter that got a sled for Christmas and she ask me everyday when are we going to go sledding. I tell her we have to wait till it snows, but she does not understand. She knows I am in school for weather and she says if it does not snow can you make it.LOL.

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