Ian Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Model skills are tanking again... similar values to what we saw mid-December. GFS Ensemble 11-15 day 500mb height skill is at zero over North America. Euro Ensemble isn't that much better. Canadian Ensemble FTW. in addition to stratospheric warming people are giving more time of day to day 13-16 model output than in any other winter i remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 w/the GFS and GGEM north and the NAM looking very much like the north models at 84 hrs, please don't hold your breath...we'd hate to lose ya' Euro probably will cave. Anxiously awaiting Ian's "euro is warmer" post. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro probably will cave. Anxiously awaiting Ian's "euro is warmer" post. MDstorm after yesterday im not commenting on the rain storm again till it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 EURO out to 48 (what I have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you just know this is going to be one of those cases where it can only get worse with each run instead of better....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW, -6c 850s for all 3 major airports at 12z FRI at 72 on 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFs wins again... rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the precip is starting much latter on saturday than during the overnight hours Friday night. Fail Fail Fail..this entire winter is a Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 GFs wins again... rain No precip yet at 12z SAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW, -6c 850s for all 3 major airports at 12z FRI at 72 on 12z EURO and Low pressure in central Canada http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW, -6c 850s for all 3 major airports at 12z FRI at 72 on 12z EURO 96 hrs and the 850 line is to dc. the sfc looks gfs like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 96 hrs and the 850 line is to dc. the sfc looks gfs like. Yeah... GFS did have major ice in PA/NW MD/WV panhandle I believe. I am not expecting snow... more ice than anything else IMO. 96 surface does have a 1029/1030 H in NE New York/Quebec/N VT area FWIW... which is not much I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 you can see exactly how the slp is pointing its future path at Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 looks like we all start as snow for a few minutes and quickly work our way to rain saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 looks like we all start as snow for a few minutes and quickly work our way to rain saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 its still tuesday...still plenty of time for it to get warmer or colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 looks like we all start as snow for a few minutes and quickly work our way to rain saturday morning I was thinking more FZRA/PL to RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the precip is starting much latter on saturday than during the overnight hours Friday night. Fail Fail Fail..this entire winter is a Fail He's getting close, folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 its still tuesday...still plenty of time for it to get a lot warmer or colder fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 and by Monday morning, everyone on the east coast pretty much is melting, so wtf http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 in addition to stratospheric warming people are giving more time of day to day 13-16 model output than in any other winter i remember. Well, it did nail the October 29th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 and by Monday morning, everyone on the east coast pretty much is melting, so wtf http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Meh 50s aren't torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Meh 50s aren't torch I said melting, not torch, and 40s-50s are melting, even in JI's book! EDIT: if it's not gonna' snow, then let it torch away already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This winter is so depressing... Nothing ever trends better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 its still tuesday...still plenty of time for it to get warmer or colder I very much hope that it trends back to the colder solution. Mitch seemed to think earlier that it would depend alot on the Thurs system. Hope it goes our way for once. However, I think we have a pretty good idea how this is going to go as far as snow is concerned. I said earlier that I thought the morning runs today would give us a pretty good idea, and I think they have. Some took exception to me saying that, and if I'm wrong now, I'll glad take the brow beating. But I doubt it. It's funny that models can show you exactly what you want, be wrong, change to exactly what you don't want. But almost never do they show you exactly what you don't want, be wrong, change to exactly what you do want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This one's toast, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This one's toast, I think. yep like I said earlier, these types of systems in this kind of a winter never trend better with each run NNE and ski areas will ultimately be the winner as has been the case all season is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 some nice thunderstorms headed our way http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You know, I can deal with or even enjoy a nice warm-up in January, as long as it is followed by a cold slap in the face. Barely below freezing 850s behind the front is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You know, I can deal with or even enjoy a nice warm-up in January, as long as it is followed by a cold slap in the face. Barely below freezing 850s behind the front is pathetic. could be worse ENE just had 2-3" last night and when I went to check out some pics on IntaCam, it was either completely meted or almost melted away seems like we're in the SE and ENE is the new MA this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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