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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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Model skills are tanking again... similar values to what we saw mid-December.

GFS Ensemble 11-15 day 500mb height skill is at zero over North America. Euro Ensemble isn't that much better. Canadian Ensemble FTW.

in addition to stratospheric warming people are giving more time of day to day 13-16 model output than in any other winter i remember.

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96 hrs and the 850 line is to dc. the sfc looks gfs like.

Yeah... GFS did have major ice in PA/NW MD/WV panhandle I believe. I am not expecting snow... more ice than anything else IMO. 96 surface does have a 1029/1030 H in NE New York/Quebec/N VT area FWIW... which is not much I guess

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its still tuesday...still plenty of time for it to get warmer or colder

I very much hope that it trends back to the colder solution. Mitch seemed to think earlier that it would depend alot on the Thurs system. Hope it goes our way for once.

However, I think we have a pretty good idea how this is going to go as far as snow is concerned. I said earlier that I thought the morning runs today would give us a pretty good idea, and I think they have. Some took exception to me saying that, and if I'm wrong now, I'll glad take the brow beating. But I doubt it.

It's funny that models can show you exactly what you want, be wrong, change to exactly what you don't want. But almost never do they show you exactly what you don't want, be wrong, change to exactly what you do want.

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You know, I can deal with or even enjoy a nice warm-up in January, as long as it is followed by a cold slap in the face. Barely below freezing 850s behind the front is pathetic.

post-1746-0-90329100-1326826365.gif

could be worse

ENE just had 2-3" last night and when I went to check out some pics on IntaCam, it was either completely meted or almost melted away

seems like we're in the SE and ENE is the new MA this winter

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