Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I can read just fine, thank you. You said the 12z runs today would be final, so the GFS gives us no snow. Let's see what Euro does! To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 My posts are here. Go back and highlight that portion. pretty good idea, final, same thing really. Its tuesday, this threat is saturday. if you think we will have a "pretty good idea" after the 12z runs on what will happen today, then you need to keep hoping. you've been around here long enough to know that things change, that the models change daily and that even up to the day before things are not "set in stone". That was my point to you, winterwxluvr. Your posts are lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 My posts are here. Go back and highlight that portion. You did say that we would have a pretty good idea based on the 12z runs. It's Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out. I got it, thanks Kenny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I got it, thanks Kenny I think he's just a victim of lack of snow like so many of us are. But he has been around for at least as long as I can remember and he should know that 3-5 days out we generally don't have a "pretty good idea" - Exceptions would be like 09/10 when it was like "yes yes yes" in Kocin's words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think he's just a victim of lack of snow like so many of us are. But he has been around for at least as long as I can remember and he should know that 3-5 days out we generally don't have a "pretty good idea" - Exceptions would be like 09/10 when it was like "yes yes yes" in Kocin's words. And those exceptions do not happen often. Unless winterwxluvr knows something we don't regarding the models and saturday's possible threat - using words like "pretty good idea" 4 days out is not smart. .. yes, he never did say final, i added that. my point doesn't change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Is "the model will pick up CAD as we get closer to the event" in the handbook ? Even so, 12Z GFS looks like some decent icing here Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If the Euro torches for this weekend then the 18z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the problem is, the north trend is A. typical of NINA winters (or so it seems to my recollection), and B. that OV storm certainly matches what we have seen this winter at this point, I wouldn't be surprised in ENE gets mainly rain ultimately Sorry, missed this. Like Andy said, without something keeping that high in place,it can only go north, hence the warmer temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Another thing about the GFS is the timing. I can't get to yesterdays 12z run now, but at 18z it had precip in here by Friday evening. Now it doesn't even have it here by 12z Sat morning. What is it people here say? A storm delayed....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out. I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold. So you admit that you are only hugging each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS bufkit profiles just came out... 34°F and Rain for the 3 terminals. Mt. Vortmax up in Carrol Co. gets .6" of ZR. HGR gets .5" of IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS bufkit profiles just came out... 34°F and Rain for the 3 terminals. Mt. Vortmax up in Carrol Co. gets .6" of ZR. HGR gets .5" of IP/ZR How much rain may I ask? 34... cooler than I thought it would be. NW MD would be ISW criteria potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 In the ensembles we trust, because the 12z GFS looks pretty craptacular in the long range. No real sign of pattern change part deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How much rain may I ask? 34... cooler than I thought it would be. NW MD would be ISW criteria potentially IAD actually starts out with .01 of ZR then .4" at 33°F and then it warms up through the collumn. Total Rain =.6" So, it looks like if you are just west of IAD above say 700 ft. then you could be looking at a good ZR event ~.4". Per this run of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 In the ensembles we trust, because the 12z GFS looks pretty craptacular in the long range. No real sign of pattern change part deux. How do they look for Sat? Same as OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 In the ensembles we trust, because the 12z GFS looks pretty craptacular in the long range. No real sign of pattern change part deux. seems like the pattern change idea will forever be pushed back at least until it can't snow anymore. cfs weeklies from y-day are unsurprisingly warm into mid-feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How do they look for Sat? Same as OP? Perhaps a bit colder. From the ensemble mean, it certainly looks like not all the members have the storm, or at least the timing is different. I'll take a look at the individual members on e-wall once their loaded. In the end, most of the precip would probably fall as rain on the ensemble mean. Thankfully, the ensemble mean looks MUCH BETTER than the Op on pattern change version 2.0. -NAO, -EPO, probably a weak +PNA and lower then average heights over us. Even the AO might be negative or at least near neutral by 300+ hrs. Would be the best look we've had all winter by far if it verifies. Feb's gonna be rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Perhaps a bit colder. From the ensemble mean, it certainly looks like not all the members have the storm, or at least the timing is different. I'll take a look at the individual members on e-wall once their loaded. In the end, most of the precip would probably fall as rain on the ensemble mean. Thankfully, the ensemble mean looks MUCH BETTER than the Op on pattern change version 2.0. -NAO, -EPO, probably a weak +PNA and lower then average heights over us. Even the AO might be negative or at least near neutral by 300+ hrs. Would be the best look we've had all winter by far if it verifies. Feb's gonna be rockin' Any snow/ice to rain will be fine in my books for Saturday.. and sounds like the ensemble mean is rockin... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 pretty good idea, final, same thing really. Its tuesday, this threat is saturday. if you think we will have a "pretty good idea" after the 12z runs on what will happen today, then you need to keep hoping. you've been around here long enough to know that things change, that the models change daily and that even up to the day before things are not "set in stone". That was my point to you, winterwxluvr. Your posts are lol. When I first logged on, I saw the few pages of banter and stupidly thought a bonafide storm was shaping up. Sadly, it's just another in a series of semantic arguments that seem to be more prevalent lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 At least there's 65 people reading this now. Gotta mean something. Heck, I'm here posting. GFS OP did show NAO- and even PNA+ (kinda) at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Any snow/ice to rain will be fine in my books for Saturday.. and sounds like the ensemble mean is rockin... for now The -NAO, -EPO, +PNA signal at the end of the month has been there for a couple days now on the GFS and is supposedly there on the Euro as well. At least there's 65 people reading this now. Gotta mean something. Heck, I'm here posting. GFS OP did show NAO- and even PNA+ (kinda) at the end of the run. The -NAO/+PNA (using those terms generously) at 360-384 on the Op were both pretty transient it looked like. Especially the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The -NAO, -EPO, +PNA signal at the end of the month has been there for a couple days now on the GFS and is supposedly there on the Euro as well. The -NAO/+PNA (using those terms generously) at 360-384 on the Op were both pretty transient it looked like. Especially the -NAO. It's so transient that Alan's calculations indicate that the noa is positive thru the operational run. No so for the ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I certainly hope that the 12z EURO holds serve.. would be nice to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Model skills are tanking again... similar values to what we saw mid-December. GFS Ensemble 11-15 day 500mb height skill is at zero over North America. Euro Ensemble isn't that much better. Canadian Ensemble FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I certainly hope that the 12z EURO holds serve.. would be nice to see that w/the GFS and GGEM north and the NAM looking very much like the north models at 84 hrs, please don't hold your breath...we'd hate to lose ya' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well the CMC is a train wreck for fri/sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I certainly hope that the 12z EURO holds serve.. would be nice to see that People who use "hold serve" should be shot. Unless the Euro really does hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 w/the GFS and GGEM north and the NAM looking very much like the north models at 84 hrs, please don't hold your breath...we'd hate to lose ya' I'm not Just holding out hope... using the Force... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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