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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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I can read just fine, thank you. You said the 12z runs today would be final, so the GFS gives us no snow. Let's see what Euro does! :)

To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out.

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My posts are here. Go back and highlight that portion.

pretty good idea, final, same thing really.

Its tuesday, this threat is saturday. if you think we will have a "pretty good idea" after the 12z runs on what will happen today, then you need to keep hoping.

you've been around here long enough to know that things change, that the models change daily and that even up to the day before things are not "set in stone".

That was my point to you, winterwxluvr. Your posts are lol.

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To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out.

I got it, thanks Kenny ;)

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I got it, thanks Kenny ;)

I think he's just a victim of lack of snow like so many of us are. But he has been around for at least as long as I can remember and he should know that 3-5 days out we generally don't have a "pretty good idea" - Exceptions would be like 09/10 when it was like "yes yes yes" in Kocin's words.

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I think he's just a victim of lack of snow like so many of us are. But he has been around for at least as long as I can remember and he should know that 3-5 days out we generally don't have a "pretty good idea" - Exceptions would be like 09/10 when it was like "yes yes yes" in Kocin's words.

And those exceptions do not happen often. Unless winterwxluvr knows something we don't regarding the models and saturday's possible threat - using words like "pretty good idea" 4 days out is not smart.

.. yes, he never did say final, i added that. my point doesn't change though.

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the problem is, the north trend is A. typical of NINA winters (or so it seems to my recollection), and B. that OV storm certainly matches what we have seen this winter

at this point, I wouldn't be surprised in ENE gets mainly rain ultimately

Sorry, missed this. Like Andy said, without something keeping that high in place,it can only go north, hence the warmer temps

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To be fair he did say "pretty good idea" and not final. But I disagree with him still. If he thinks that this many days out we will have a good idea then he clearly does not remember previous busts we've had when we've seen a good solution this far out.

I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold.

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I will concede that maybe my meaning was lost. What I mean by pretty good idea is that I think we might just get a confirmation that it WONT happen. If we get any indicators that it looks good, then yes I'll be skeptical longer. Just seems like once that rug gets pulled, it's gone. If the Euro goes the way of the GFS, then I'm out. If by some miracle it comes back, then everyone can laugh and I'll still enjoy the snow. If the Euro holds, then I hold.

So you admit that you are only hugging each model run?

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How much rain may I ask? 34... cooler than I thought it would be. NW MD would be ISW criteria potentially

IAD actually starts out with .01 of ZR then .4" at 33°F and then it warms up through the collumn. Total Rain =.6" So, it looks like if you are just west of IAD above say 700 ft. then you could be looking at a good ZR event ~.4". Per this run of course.

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In the ensembles we trust, because the 12z GFS looks pretty craptacular in the long range. No real sign of pattern change part deux.

seems like the pattern change idea will forever be pushed back at least until it can't snow anymore. cfs weeklies from y-day are unsurprisingly warm into mid-feb.

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How do they look for Sat? Same as OP?

Perhaps a bit colder. From the ensemble mean, it certainly looks like not all the members have the storm, or at least the timing is different. I'll take a look at the individual members on e-wall once their loaded. In the end, most of the precip would probably fall as rain on the ensemble mean.

Thankfully, the ensemble mean looks MUCH BETTER than the Op on pattern change version 2.0. -NAO, -EPO, probably a weak +PNA and lower then average heights over us. Even the AO might be negative or at least near neutral by 300+ hrs. Would be the best look we've had all winter by far if it verifies. Feb's gonna be rockin' :guitar::snowman:

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Perhaps a bit colder. From the ensemble mean, it certainly looks like not all the members have the storm, or at least the timing is different. I'll take a look at the individual members on e-wall once their loaded. In the end, most of the precip would probably fall as rain on the ensemble mean.

Thankfully, the ensemble mean looks MUCH BETTER than the Op on pattern change version 2.0. -NAO, -EPO, probably a weak +PNA and lower then average heights over us. Even the AO might be negative or at least near neutral by 300+ hrs. Would be the best look we've had all winter by far if it verifies. Feb's gonna be rockin' :guitar::snowman:

Any snow/ice to rain will be fine in my books for Saturday.. and sounds like the ensemble mean is rockin... for now

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pretty good idea, final, same thing really.

Its tuesday, this threat is saturday. if you think we will have a "pretty good idea" after the 12z runs on what will happen today, then you need to keep hoping.

you've been around here long enough to know that things change, that the models change daily and that even up to the day before things are not "set in stone".

That was my point to you, winterwxluvr. Your posts are lol.

When I first logged on, I saw the few pages of banter and stupidly thought a bonafide storm was shaping up. Sadly, it's just another in a series of semantic arguments that seem to be more prevalent lately.

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Any snow/ice to rain will be fine in my books for Saturday.. and sounds like the ensemble mean is rockin... for now

The -NAO, -EPO, +PNA signal at the end of the month has been there for a couple days now on the GFS and is supposedly there on the Euro as well.

At least there's 65 people reading this now. Gotta mean something. Heck, I'm here posting. GFS OP did show NAO- and even PNA+ (kinda) at the end of the run.

The -NAO/+PNA (using those terms generously) at 360-384 on the Op were both pretty transient it looked like. Especially the -NAO.

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The -NAO, -EPO, +PNA signal at the end of the month has been there for a couple days now on the GFS and is supposedly there on the Euro as well.

The -NAO/+PNA (using those terms generously) at 360-384 on the Op were both pretty transient it looked like. Especially the -NAO.

It's so transient that Alan's calculations indicate that the noa is positive thru the operational run. No so for the ens mean.

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