yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 IAD is below 32 through 111 hours...29-30 with light overrunning precip would be nasty for a little while....would look nice on the trees too Though GFS had QPF field higher in S MD and E VA (likely rain)... and less precip back toward NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Anything else interesting on euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I didn't even think the GFS run was that bad...it wouldnt be snow, but it has the wedge and it would be legit icing....even DCA holds at 32 through 108 hours I agree that the 00z GFS was not terrible, but it certainly was not as good as earlier runs. The Euro 00z run was a "solid" improvement and nice to see at this point. We also have going for us the fact that JB has this event pegged for 40 north. He hasn't been right about a DC event in quite a while. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Anything else interesting on euro? no but the 500mb pattern continues to show some promise on the atlantic side....the PV is over greenland at the end of the run but heights are rising to the west and we have a 50-50 low that doesn't seem like it wants to race off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 no but the 500mb pattern continues to show some promise on the atlantic side....the PV is over greenland at the end of the run but heights are rising to the west and we have a 50-50 low that doesn't seem like it wants to race off Hm talked about jan 30-31 possibility a few days ago which Gfs now has. Things are not as bleak as they were 3-4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hm talked about jan 30-31 possibility a few days ago which Gfs now has. Things are not as bleak as they were 3-4 days ago they aren't but it still would be nice to get some frozen saturday before we torch next week....a pattern improvement seems possible/likely at some point in the next 2-3 weeks, but that doesn't mean I don't want to get something minor before then....doesn't mean it will happen, but there is no real reason we can't get a T-2" event in this pattern if we have a weak WAA event into a wedge....the air mass looks pretty legit and climo couldnt be more favorable....we don't live in the deep south....of course that doesnt mean we wont get shut out....we need some luck too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 no but the 500mb pattern continues to show some promise on the atlantic side....the PV is over greenland at the end of the run but heights are rising to the west and we have a 50-50 low that doesn't seem like it wants to race off I don't think it's much of a PV by that point anyway, which might be why the 50/50 low isn't a useless artifact. GFS/Euro + their ensembles all weaken the PV quite a bit in the long range and almost split it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 00z GEFS in the long range has the -NAO, less pronounced but there amongst a wierd looking hemispheric pressure regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 lol, GFS says the Eastern US will be the only place on the globe torching outside the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 6z GFS was awful compared to last night's runs. Unless you like storm tracks through the Ohio Valley and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 06Z GFS ensemble actually looks pretty good in the long range. Probably one of the better looks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Probably on the Euro, when the GFS has it Euro doesn't, then they flip, Euro is usually right. GFS had the right idea, then flipped, so we'll see. That's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Seeing as it is still noly Tues for something 3 days away, I will hold my chips off the table for another day. Too much variability to say one or the other. The high to the north is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Probably a solid clue that its in error. LOL...lets lock in the 6z gfs please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way I'm pretty sure you flip flop just as much as JB does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 LOL...lets lock in the 6z gfs please and thank you we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way DT agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 weenie snowfall map for the Euro is puuuurty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple +1 honeybadger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 weenie snowfall map for the Euro is puuuurty What are we looking at though? Is that total snowfall for a given time frame? How long? Also, is it QPF or total snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What are we looking at though? Is that total snowfall for a given time frame? How long? Also, is it QPF or total snowfall? That map was just for the hour of 18z on Saturday, there was some snow that fell prior to that and a little afterwards. But that was the bulk of the precip. I also wouldn't believe it 100%, its a weenie map all the way. Wunderground's version of a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 LOL...lets lock in the 6z gfs please and thank you wrong forum a-sshole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 NAM and Euro continue to show the Apps eating up all the snow early Friday. 6z GFS still had some flurries making it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. So you are assuming the 12z runs today are the final solution AND you are extrapolating the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 No, 84hr NAM does not look good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. Pretty sure we don't want Minneapolis getting a half foot of snow like the 12z NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 NAM and Euro continue to show the Apps eating up all the snow early Friday. 6z GFS still had some flurries making it over the mountains. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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