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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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The 5h pattern is pretty volatile...but DC does have the sfc high location going for it....it will help promote CAD all the way up the mid-levels. But given no block or anything, it can definitely wiggle quite a bit in any direction.

We probably won't do as well as Seattle though

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Interesting how the GFS was initially looking more like snow with the Euro looking more like rain up until the 00z runs tonight. The Euro is now in it's 96-120 hour wheelhouse where it usually cleans the clock of the GFS. Hopefully, that record continues. And I agree that any accumulating snow in these parts will do wonders for board morale.

MDstorm

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yes...this could easily trend warmer/drier....

The CAD is really strong on all guidance..even before 00z came south. I posted in the NE subforum how I thought it would almost be a lock for winter precip because of that...we now might get whiffed to the south, but even if it trends back north which is certainly a legit possibility...it could be an icing event for west of the fall line in DC metro with that ppt signature.

Its a legit threat though...only if because the antecedent air mass has some punch to it and the high will help hold it in.

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Interesting how the GFS was initially looking more like snow with the Euro looking more like rain up until the 00z runs tonight. The Euro is now in it's 96-120 hour wheelhouse where it usually cleans the clock of the GFS. Hopefully, that record continues. And I agree that any accumulating snow in these parts will do wonders for board morale.

MDstorm

I didn't even think the GFS run was that bad...it wouldnt be snow, but it has the wedge and it would be legit icing....even DCA holds at 32 through 108 hours

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I didn't even think the GFS run was that bad...it wouldnt be snow, but it has the wedge and it would be legit icing....even DCA holds at 32 through 108 hours

It was a freezing rain run IMO... 850 0c line was north while 2m 0c line held into DCA through 108... prob a light snow to ice to drizzle finish

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The CAD is really strong on all guidance..even before 00z came south. I posted in the NE subforum how I thought it would almost be a lock for winter precip because of that...we now might get whiffed to the south, but even if it trends back north which is certainly a legit possibility...it could be an icing event for west of the fall line in DC metro with that ppt signature.

Its a legit threat though...only if because the antecedent air mass has some punch to it and the high will help hold it in.

yes....I think it is increasingly likely we have a wedge, especially in the western burbs....But remains to be seen how much moisture gets thrown into it and what type of precip....Usually the guidance is too warm with these events, but too far south with the track so it kind of "evens" out...hopefully the euro is more correct and it has CAD into the mid levels

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