Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Sad you even had to point that out. I wanna hear more about how it's not gonna snow tho! I know you were trolling. I guessed that when you started antagonizing me for no reason this morning. But it's clear me saying it might not snow is a much bigger crime so I'll **** off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 does it still count as a torch, or do I need to go into hiding? It's still pretty warm, I think it's semantics. What is a torch? Is this 6-10 day forecast one? Or this 11-15 day forecast? or is the combined warm anomalies for the 6-15 day period a torch or is there such thing as a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It's still pretty warm, I think it's semantics. What is a torch. Is this 6-10 day forecast one? Or this 11-15 day forecast? or is the combined warm anomalies for the 6-15 day period a torch or is there such thing as a torch? nobody was forecasting this, so this isnt about pointing fingers...but what looked like an extended period of double digit average departures may not be so likely....we were talking about 70s a few days ago...I think that is still possible....but quick 1-2 day warmups seem more probable....I don't think this even looks as torchy as the week before Christmas which was our biggest torch period this winter...If we can get 4 consecutive days of double digit departures even with a cheap midnight high, I think that is legit torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wes, you ask questions I don't have solid answers to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wes, you ask questions I don't have solid answers to. Matt tried to answer and gave his opinion which is what I was after, but I think torch is pretty subjective and depends on each person's own definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Matt tried to answer and gave his opinion which is what I was after, but I think torch is pretty subjective and depends on each person's own definition. I saw his post after I made mine - I agree with his response. A fluke day (like the Saturday two weeks ago) to me isn't really a torch. Needs to be a few days like that in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Matt tried to answer and gave his opinion which is what I was after, but I think torch is pretty subjective and depends on each person's own definition. definitely subjective...12/20 - 1/1 we averaged +10 for the period and every single day was above normal...that was pretty impressive in length and degree.....I think a 7 day period that averages +8 or warmer and has no minus days would be a torch as well..if it is a warm period and the "cold" days are mostly +3 to +5's, I think that is torchy....I think we will have to see next week once we get warm if the cold shots are still plus days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Matt tried to answer and gave his opinion which is what I was after, but I think torch is pretty subjective and depends on each person's own definition. plus, since those are 850 temps, we still could be stuck at a raw 50 degrees at 2m I didn't look at 2m temps, but just sayin' it may not "feel" like a torch of course, that's no consolation to the fact that it is a cr@ppy pattern with no reasonable hope for snow...so why did I even bother to post this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I saw his post after I made mine - I agree with his response. A fluke day (like the Saturday two weeks ago) to me isn't really a torch. Needs to be a few days like that in a row. we have had some epic epic January torches in the past 7-8 winters....even in 2010 we "torched" for a bit....there has been some overall hype generally about the guidance for the upcoming period...as far as our backyard, I need to see something impressive given what we saw in the January's of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and even 2010 to some extent to justify that the hype reached its potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Some of the "warmers" on the board made it seem like we'd have a week to 10 days of unbroken 60's and 70's, if not stating that explicitly, by showing the extreme long-range model progs. Until I see kids swimming in the creeks around here, like February '76, I'll feel like I dodged the flame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 plus, since those are 850 temps, we still could be stuck at a raw 50 degrees at 2m I didn't look at 2m temps, but just sayin' it may not "feel" like a torch of course, that's no consolation to the fact that it is a cr@ppy pattern with no reasonable hope for snow...so why did I even bother to post this? in jan 2007 we had 2 separate 5 day periods that averaged +20 and +19 respectively and in Jan 2008 we had a 7 day period that averaged +18....is that what we are looking at?...I am not seeing anything like that, but maybe it does happen at some point in the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 in jan 2007 we had 2 separate 5 day periods that averaged +20 and +19 respectively and in Jan 2008 we had a 7 day period that averaged +18....is that what we are looking at?...I am not seeing anything like that, but maybe it does happen at some point in the next 2 weeks I don't think anything that extreme, but a 10 day period of +10-+14 seems in the realm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Some of the "warmers" on the board made it seem like we'd have a week to 10 days of unbroken 60's and 70's, if not stating that explicitly, by showing the extreme long-range model progs. Until I see kids swimming in the creeks around here, like February '76, I'll feel like I dodged the flame. DC has been king of the January torch recently.....none of us are going to be impressed with a day or 2 in the low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think anything that extreme, but a 10 day period of +10-+14 seems in the realm that would be a torch imo, especially if no minus days in the period....+14 over 10 days would be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Are you all going to start another thread for th Jan 20 event? 'Cause that will definitely kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that would be a torch imo, especially if no minus days in the period....+14 over 10 days would be significant It doesn't look like the intensity is as great as we've seen in previous Januarys (according to your previous post), but the duration may be the significant part. I only have the weeklies as a guide, but the Week 2 (Jan 23-29) is +9-10, which is pretty significant for an ensemble at that lead time. Interestingly, we haven't seen the Euro op intensity the warmth as those dates have been coming into its range, which is what I thought would happen and why I was starting to chirp about 70 at PHL/BWI/DCA last week. That appears to be the error I made in my analysis of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that would be a torch imo, especially if no minus days in the period....+14 over 10 days would be significant The only thing that could ruin that would be a sneaky high to the north that would turn our winds around to the east. Then it's low clouds and drizzle city with temps in the upper 40's by day, low 40's at night. While still well above normal, not my idea of enjoyable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It doesn't look like the intensity is as great as we've seen in previous Januarys (according to your previous post), but the duration may be the significant part. I only have the weeklies as a guide, but the Week 2 (Jan 23-29) is +9-10, which is pretty significant for an ensemble at that lead time. Interestingly, we haven't seen the Euro op intensity the warmth as those dates have been coming into its range, which is what I thought would happen and why I was starting to chirp about 70 at PHL/BWI/DCA last week. That appears to be the error I made in my analysis of the pattern. i'm going to do a separate thread on 10-day periods...we have had some monsters in the last 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Totally off topic but i am going to Detroit tomorrow and i am thrilled with the chance i get to see an inch of snow there. That show's how sad this winter has been when the highlight of your trip is the possibility of seeing an inch of snow. I will let you guys know what snow looks like if i can post from there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 For the second straight run the gefs ens mean is showing a negative NAO at the end of the run with high heights over Greenland and lower across our area while also showing the negative anomaly center over Ak shifting to near the Aleutians, that would start to dry out the west again as a weak positive pna pattern tried to develop. 384 ensemble mean forecast still can be pretty bad but at least it shows a potentially more interesting pattern than will be present for the next 10 to 12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 It doesn't look like the intensity is as great as we've seen in previous Januarys (according to your previous post), but the duration may be the significant part. I only have the weeklies as a guide, but the Week 2 (Jan 23-29) is +9-10, which is pretty significant for an ensemble at that lead time. Interestingly, we haven't seen the Euro op intensity the warmth as those dates have been coming into its range, which is what I thought would happen and why I was starting to chirp about 70 at PHL/BWI/DCA last week. That appears to be the error I made in my analysis of the pattern. Thanks for your thoughts, Adam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 For the second straight run the gefs ens mean is showing a negative NAO at the end of the run with high heights over Greenland and lower across our area while also showing the negative anomaly center over Ak shifting to near the Aleutians, that would start to dry out the west again as a weak positive pna pattern tried to develop. 384 ensemble mean forecast still can be pretty bad but at least it shows a potentially more interesting pattern than will be present for the next 10 to 12 days. any change is good...I'd like to see a cold pattern actually happen by 2/20 so we still have time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 For the second straight run the gefs ens mean is showing a negative NAO at the end of the run with high heights over Greenland and lower across our area while also showing the negative anomaly center over Ak shifting to near the Aleutians, that would start to dry out the west again as a weak positive pna pattern tried to develop. 384 ensemble mean forecast still can be pretty bad but at least it shows a potentially more interesting pattern than will be present for the next 10 to 12 days. The Euro ensembles support the idea of blocking in the Davis Straight by the end of January...the PAC isnt quite as good as it has the lower height anomaly a little E of the GEFS...but its still retrograded enough to pop a bit of a ridge over W Canada and PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Euro ensembles support the idea of blocking in the Davis Straight by the end of January...the PAC isnt quite as good as it has the lower height anomaly a little E of the GEFS...but its still retrograded enough to pop a bit of a ridge over W Canada and PAC NW. That's nice to hear. It might make me temper my article a little tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's nice to hear. It might make me temper my article a little tomorrow. I'm pleasantly surprised to see the NAO signal popping up more on the ensembles...just a couple days ago it didn't really have it but its been showing up a lot stronger the past couple of runs. Hopefully it isn't a false signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I'm pleasantly surprised to see the NAO signal popping up more on the ensembles...just a couple days ago it didn't really have it but its been showing up a lot stronger the past couple of runs. Hopefully it isn't a false signal. That's also my hope. It's funny, this is the best look that a long range prog has had all winter and it seems like it is slipping by the radar. It's still too early to dash off and say there is going to be a pattern change but it the signal continues for several more runs, I'd be surprised if some of the more aggressive forecasters didn't start calling for a pattern change. Heck I might even bite. I guess JB might already have done that but he's been all over the place this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That's also my hope. It's funny, this is the best look that a long range prog has had all winter and it seems like it is slipping by the radar. It's still too early to dash off and say there is going to be a pattern change but it the signal continues for several more runs, I'd be surprised if some of the more aggressive forecasters didn't start calling for a pattern change. Heck I might even bite. I guess JB might already have done that but he's been all over the place this year. even the OP euro has been popping heights west of Greenland for a number of runs as the low anomaly progress east....hopefully something is afoot other that is a departure from what we have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well the 0z was underwhelming. Odd looking run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 looks like some snow-ice-drizzle this run? 2m temps go above 0C as precip is ending QPF field looks weird Zwyts, what do you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Rain, under-amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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