Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Probably a solid clue that its in error. Good luck with Kevin wood tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 1-3" thump before a torch would change the mood in here hugely During the torch well be tracking the coming -nao and coastal storm in shirts and tee shirt while we look at pics from our 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Snow gone my monday as we hit 65-70? Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 5h pattern is pretty volatile...but DC does have the sfc high location going for it....it will help promote CAD all the way up the mid-levels. But given no block or anything, it can definitely wiggle quite a bit in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I don't care if it melts that afternoon...if we can get an inch saturday I will be happy... Not as happy as you would be if you were in the other Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 5h pattern is pretty volatile...but DC does have the sfc high location going for it....it will help promote CAD all the way up the mid-levels. But given no block or anything, it can definitely wiggle quite a bit in any direction. We probably won't do as well as Seattle though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Interesting how the GFS was initially looking more like snow with the Euro looking more like rain up until the 00z runs tonight. The Euro is now in it's 96-120 hour wheelhouse where it usually cleans the clock of the GFS. Hopefully, that record continues. And I agree that any accumulating snow in these parts will do wonders for board morale. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 yes...this could easily trend warmer/drier.... The CAD is really strong on all guidance..even before 00z came south. I posted in the NE subforum how I thought it would almost be a lock for winter precip because of that...we now might get whiffed to the south, but even if it trends back north which is certainly a legit possibility...it could be an icing event for west of the fall line in DC metro with that ppt signature. Its a legit threat though...only if because the antecedent air mass has some punch to it and the high will help hold it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I didn't even think the GFS run was that bad...it wouldnt be snow, but it has the wedge and it would be legit icing....even DCA holds at 32 through 108 hours It was a freezing rain run IMO... 850 0c line was north while 2m 0c line held into DCA through 108... prob a light snow to ice to drizzle finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 IAD is below 32 through 111 hours...29-30 with light overrunning precip would be nasty for a little while....would look nice on the trees too Though GFS had QPF field higher in S MD and E VA (likely rain)... and less precip back toward NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Anything else interesting on euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I didn't even think the GFS run was that bad...it wouldnt be snow, but it has the wedge and it would be legit icing....even DCA holds at 32 through 108 hours I agree that the 00z GFS was not terrible, but it certainly was not as good as earlier runs. The Euro 00z run was a "solid" improvement and nice to see at this point. We also have going for us the fact that JB has this event pegged for 40 north. He hasn't been right about a DC event in quite a while. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 no but the 500mb pattern continues to show some promise on the atlantic side....the PV is over greenland at the end of the run but heights are rising to the west and we have a 50-50 low that doesn't seem like it wants to race off Hm talked about jan 30-31 possibility a few days ago which Gfs now has. Things are not as bleak as they were 3-4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 no but the 500mb pattern continues to show some promise on the atlantic side....the PV is over greenland at the end of the run but heights are rising to the west and we have a 50-50 low that doesn't seem like it wants to race off I don't think it's much of a PV by that point anyway, which might be why the 50/50 low isn't a useless artifact. GFS/Euro + their ensembles all weaken the PV quite a bit in the long range and almost split it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 00z GEFS in the long range has the -NAO, less pronounced but there amongst a wierd looking hemispheric pressure regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 lol, GFS says the Eastern US will be the only place on the globe torching outside the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 6z GFS was awful compared to last night's runs. Unless you like storm tracks through the Ohio Valley and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 06Z GFS ensemble actually looks pretty good in the long range. Probably one of the better looks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Probably on the Euro, when the GFS has it Euro doesn't, then they flip, Euro is usually right. GFS had the right idea, then flipped, so we'll see. That's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, this is model showdown at its best. One of them, as of this morning, is going to lose big time with the event on Fri/Sat. Where you guys placing your bets? Seeing as it is still noly Tues for something 3 days away, I will hold my chips off the table for another day. Too much variability to say one or the other. The high to the north is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Probably a solid clue that its in error. LOL...lets lock in the 6z gfs please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way I'm pretty sure you flip flop just as much as JB does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 LOL...lets lock in the 6z gfs please and thank you we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Gfs is crap...euro all the way DT agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 weenie snowfall map for the Euro is puuuurty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple +1 honeybadger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 weenie snowfall map for the Euro is puuuurty What are we looking at though? Is that total snowfall for a given time frame? How long? Also, is it QPF or total snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 What are we looking at though? Is that total snowfall for a given time frame? How long? Also, is it QPF or total snowfall? That map was just for the hour of 18z on Saturday, there was some snow that fell prior to that and a little afterwards. But that was the bulk of the precip. I also wouldn't believe it 100%, its a weenie map all the way. Wunderground's version of a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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