mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm going to ask a dumb question, but here goes. Tempwise what are we looking at with that map? Upper 50's ish or higher? I know Wes sent you a link to read - but my understanding is its a percentage chance of temps being above normal during the time period, based on the ensembles So for us we have a 90% chance of being above normal during that time period. I guess to know the exact temps, you would need to know what "normal" would be (which I do not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I know Wes sent you a link to read - but my understanding is its a percentage chance of temps being above normal during the time period, based on the ensembles So for us we have a 90% chance of being above normal during that time period. I guess to know the exact temps, you would need to know what "normal" would be (which I do not). 80 to 90 percent of the 40 ens members had the temps in the highest third if you break our climo temps into third but the probabilities are no calibrated so if the models have a uniform bias, it could still skew the probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper is a no-show again on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper is a no-show again on the Euro is there not a s/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 is there not a s/w? I don't have maps that show vorts....it does have a weak surface reflection entering MN on Saturday...then it dies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 "And finally, Lord, please give those good folks in the Mid-Atlantic one snowstorm before in you r grace you decide winter's over. Amen" Love your post...I am trying to stay positive for the rest of the winter. I was all in for the cold coming just a weak ago. Now I do not know what to believe. Maybe at the very end of January things will change. Go Broncos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 have a hard time seeing the front be more than like 5 flakes to end but eh maybe nw it'll be 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't have maps that show vorts....it does have a weak surface reflection entering MN on Saturday...then it dies.... 48 shows the closed 500 contour in Alberta then 72 shows it entering N MN before fizzling. It could easilty be right but no sense in saying it's a no go until the vort is clearly sampled over land. I think it's still off the coast at init right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SNO has not explained himself once why start now? As long as you all keep giving him the attention his parents can't, I don't think he's worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 OT - Tebow won't do crap for us. Also, his skills are purely his skill not his praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 OT - Tebow won't do crap for us. Also, his skills are purely his skill not his praying. How dare you go against the second coming of Jesus like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just saw this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 48 shows the closed 500 contour in Alberta then 72 shows it entering N MN before fizzling. It could easilty be right but no sense in saying it's a no go until the vort is clearly sampled over land. I think it's still off the coast at init right? Weenie phrase #48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 tuesday morning snow before change to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just saw this... The dreaded S and E of I-95, I-66 and I-81 screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 OT - Tebow won't do crap for us. Also, his skills are purely his skill not his praying. must the insecurities of AP bleed over here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Weenie phrase #48 Dayum! You stone cold busted my chops! lol In this case it probably applies more than than others but being a weenie gives me carte blanche to use any phase I want. My guess is that we get snow on Sunday. Accum? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't have maps that show vorts....it does have a weak surface reflection entering MN on Saturday...then it dies.... Matt, anything of consequence Days 7-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Day 7 is cold fwiw http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SNO has not explained himself once why start now? I feel like being a d!ck so I hope we get snow to rain by 1am on the 24th followed by a strong and dry coldfront on the 25th that leaves some 500 energy behind that tracks the coast and snows on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Day 7 is cold fwiw http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest day 10 is not but it's still cold in canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 day 10 is not but it's still cold in canada! no overrunning or other snow chances days 7-10? I think I know the answer because I would have seen it posted by now, but I'll bite anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 what happened to the day 8 9 storm of last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 End this nightmare now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 End this nightmare now at least this will make us all feel lucky http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/entertainment/2011/11/justin-bieber-speaks-out-on-baby-drama-accuser/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 no overrunning or other snow chances days 7-10? I think I know the answer because I would have seen it posted by now, but I'll bite anyway just a clipper north of buffalo and a big storm heading into canada from minn. there's some -24C air behind it in the dakotas. but also another firehose hitting the west coast and plenty of warm over the whole southern 2/3 of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I feel like being a d!ck so I hope we get snow to rain by 1am on the 24th followed by a strong and dry coldfront on the 25th that leaves some 500 energy behind that tracks the coast and snows on the 27th. Wow so much anger over a snow prediction. Step away from the ledge. It will be OK. There will be more snow in your lifetime. To put it nicely... Bob just "Chill" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 at least this will make us all feel lucky http://abcnews.go.co...-drama-accuser/ But Justin Bieber does not have to worry about snow, he is to busy in the bedroom to look out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Matt, anything of consequence Days 7-10? the Tuesday storm/front might be frozen on the front/back ends...lost the day 8/9 threat...Day 10 pattern is hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow so much anger over a snow prediction. Step away from the ledge. It will be OK. There will be more snow in your lifetime. To put it nicely... Bob just "Chill" Can we please just ban this clown . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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