mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JMA is snow to ice to rain. There appears to be a wedge but the 850 temps are high for most of the storm--cant tell what surface temps are one thing is for sure, whatever happens, it's gonna' be well AN a week from now and beyond up and down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 one thing is for sure, whatever happens, it's gonna' be well AN a week from now and beyond up and down the east coast Yep though the euro suggests maybe not quite as warm as the 850 temps wouldsuggest towards the end of the pd as the low level winds would have an easterly component. Still it or the euro ens mean make it look like the saturday event is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]: These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Under the heading "2D Maps". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Not to totally throw a wet towel on the chatter regarding the GFS, but our near-real time (unofficial) experimental GFS (with a new initialization scheme) is quite a bit more pessimistic (much warmer). I've only taken a quick glance, but it gives us some snow on the front end and looks to change over pretty quickly. Here's an example from the 5 day forecast from 12z today [operational GFS is the top panel, experimental (q3fy12) is the bottom panel]: These plots are made available with some delay (several hours) from our EMC VSDB verification and monitoring page: http://www.emc.ncep....gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Under the heading "2D Maps". cool, the experimental run fits my preconcieved notions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 neat....thanks...and it isn't a wet towel...we have 0.6" season to date and it is the warmest and least snowy I-95 winter since 2001-02...I'm pretty sure nobody is optimistic about getting snow in this pattern.... Mitchnick or snowluver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Mitchnick or snowluver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 And the 18z say no to the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z GFS is close. It would certainly keep the NW part of VA in frozen precip of some type for a good period, at least through Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think they know better, but want to stay "positive".....I am pretty sure for 99% of us , we understand the context of the discussion....We are a bunch of snow weenies, but I think the knowledge level and understanding in the forum overall is pretty high....at this point in the season, we are going to track T-1" events that have a 20% chance of occurring The 18Z GFS off the Alan's site lookes like snow to start between 102 and 108 hrs and then a changeover at around 6Z. I haven't seen the surface temps but there is a weak high to the north so there could be a period of sleet or freezing rain if the surfacte temps are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 looks like the gfs caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I know others have mentioned as well but maybe we can sneak some -SN in thursday night....certainly the temp profiles are better...just seems like there will be no moisture or perhaps just enought for minor flizzard conditions The Euro did allow a tad bit of moisture to survive the mountains. I didn't even realize there was a chance for that until you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z GFS is close. It would certainly keep the NW part of VA in frozen precip of some type for a good period, at least through Sat morning. too bad we're still so far out and it will probably trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 looks like the gfs caved instant weather maps shows 3'' snow for baltimore ish, NW does better. freezing rain hr 114 according to categoricals during the heavy precip. Not super good, not far away though so there is at least some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 it is warmer aloft but still would probably be light snow/sleet on the front end and then zr for a bunch of people...worth tracking... that's what it looked like to me but it also has gone warmer towards the euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 looks like the gfs caved It is close though, even on the Euro. It has decent snow along the MD line. The little clipper we looked at last week ended up south of us with parts of southern Va getting snow Sat night. I know this isn't a clipper but it is possible for it to trend just a bit south. Wishful thinking, sure. But not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 instant weather maps shows 3'' snow for baltimore ish, NW does better. freezing rain hr 114 according to categoricals during the heavy precip. Not super good, not far away though so there is at least some hope. the high stays in a better spot thruout than the euro.. but we've got plenty of time to lose hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 there is definitely frozen for many on this run if we are taking the run verbatim There are others check these out http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012011618&time=INSTANT&var=APTMPF&hour=114 (114, when the heavy precip is occurring and we go to zr in Baltimore/DC) http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012011618&time=INSTANT&var=TMINF&hour=114 (Min temp 2m 114) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 too bad we're still so far out and it will probably trend worse. No doubt the odds are in your favor on that prediction, but sooner or later, one will trend toward us instead of away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1282990 Just teasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 No doubt the odds are in your favor on that prediction, but sooner or later, one will trend toward us instead of away. maybe.. i guess it is only like 9 out of 10 that trend the wrong way. what are we at now in this string? this type of storm more often than not heads north in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think the potential for cold air at the surface that doesn't scour out quickly is certainly higher than the potential for snow, though someone could see snow on the front end... sometimes precip is faster than modeled.. that could help i suppose. but i think icing of some sort (sleet/zr) is probably a better bet than snow of consequence.. though if i had to bet i'd say rain other than maybe some conversational frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Thanks for the reality check....without you to remind us, we'd all think we were tracking a 4-8" snowstorm im all in and driving the bus dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 maybe.. i guess it is only like 9 out of 10 that trend the wrong way. what are we at now in this string? this type of storm more often than not heads north in the short term. I think were on about 15 in a row. If it doesn't trend way north, this is the kind that seem to also trend colder at the surface as we get closer. That won't help snow, but at least it might be winter type precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 CAD usually trends in our favor.. that is probably more of a reason to pay some attention to this one, than the slim hope of accumulating snow on the front end That's what I was thinking, if it wasn't a CAD event, I wouldn't be watching it, 18z gfs is a snow-->ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The 18Z gefs ens mean retrogrades the positive near the berring sea enough for the ak low/trough to also pull west at the end of the run which would suggest the possibility of retapping a positive PNA pattern early in Feb at the same time the progs so high heights shifting into Greenland. That is encouraging for early Feb. It still so far out there that it may be just a model hiccup but high latitude retrogression is pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The duration and intensity of this upcoming "torch" is looking more and more unimpressive.... It has seemed to moderate a bit the closer we get to the timeframe it is supposed to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I am pretty sure Randy was trolling Sad you even had to point that out. I wanna hear more about how it's not gonna snow tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It has seemed to moderate a bit the closer we get to the timeframe it is supposed to start. Probably ends up a one or two day mega torch instead of a 6-10 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Probably ends up a one or two day mega torch instead of a 6-10 day stretch. does it still count as a torch, or do I need to go into hiding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Sad you even had to point that out. I wanna hear more about how it's not gonna snow tho! I know you were trolling. I guessed that when you started antagonizing me for no reason this morning. But it's clear me saying it might not snow is a much bigger crime so I'll **** off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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