usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Oh yeah...damn. Your turn next! Keeping this weather related...no GGEM posts? Somebody spoon feed me. Yoda is slipping or it's a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 No I didn't do anything this time. Feel free to read back to my name being entered into the convo before I was even posting this am. yes, I saw.. I was actually sticking up for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I couple of GEFS members are in the same ball park as the GFS, most of the others are warmer. The ensemble runs aren't a total distaster for the Fri night?sat time range. It's still probably not the most likely solution but is not one you can just toss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I couple of GEFS members are in the same ball park as the GFS, most of the others are warmer. The ensemble runs aren't a total distaster for the Fri night?sat time range. It's still probably not the most likely solution but is not one you can just toss out. its the best looking chance we have had in ages....tells you how crappy our winter is be. Looking forward to CWG article which i may or may not read:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Most of the individual GFS ensemble members have an event for Saturday, but most are warm GGEM has a storm as well, but from what I can tell (not much) from those crappy 4-panel charts is that it's probably rain. However, looks like GGEM gives us a little snow Friday morning with the clipper that moves through New England. Several GFS ensemble members do this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Well it's more complicated than that, but I would think that you'd have a little more confluence if it did happen. It's a progressive flow so timing and intensity this far out will be hard to determine. But hey, nothing else to do in this winter, so might as well see what happens. Good luck. Thanks for coming over to our forum and adding your insights. Looks like the mega torch is evolving into just an avg. torch. Of course that could change back I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 yes, I saw.. I was actually sticking up for you. Your little midget torch is going to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I couple of GEFS members are in the same ball park as the GFS, most of the others are warmer. The ensemble runs aren't a total distaster for the Fri night?sat time range. It's still probably not the most likely solution but is not one you can just toss out. typical storms for us are usually the ones that start off as a chance on a model run or 2 from 5-7 days out, then gain momentum/consensus very rarely do we see a 2/6/10 event that is modeled from 5 days+ away I think it's the best we can hope for at this range in this pattern/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Your little midget torch is going to die. Ensembles are still warm and it is still going to torch, next week, just you wait. ....then it may get cold again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 its the best looking chance we have had in ages....tells you how crappy our winter is be. Looking forward to CWG article which i may or may not read:) The article right now is not about any snowstorm. Instead it's about the negative PNA and what that means for the conus including us. Bi changes for the west, not many chances for snow. It's going to have a cool graph. Of course it may be superceded by a snow possible for Saturday post if the GFS looks the same this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 lets huddle up here and get a plan stormtracker fill up the bus adjust driver seat for matt matt, ian and me pbp euro ji keep us posted on the jma and jb mitchnick keep posting just links to cold stuff yoda link up the ggem and then eek says stfu mapgirl just yell torch as needed wes keep us posted on what can go wrong someone get with weather 53 and get a baro. check for dc. coastalwx pop in and keep the mood up in the bus Feb not sure why you are in the mid atl. bus but we have some room down with the luggage BB tighten all luggage on the roof of the bus in case of high winds HM pop in for late night treats for the bus without water there is no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Ensembles are still warm and it is still going to torch, next week, just you wait. Yup. I mean, maybe it is 65 instead of 75, but that's still super warm for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Raleighwx likes a colder Feb. idea http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/after-a-preview-of-spring-for-end-of-january-colder-pattern-likely-for-february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Your little midget torch is going to die. Anything over +10 departures for a few days in a row is a torch. Sorry. No one said it was gonna torch for the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Anything over +10 departures for a few days in a row is a torch. Sorry. No one said it was gonna torch for the next 2 months. CT Blozz and weatherwiz did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Your little midget torch is going to die. Bastardi is eating extra beans just for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 CT Blozz and weatherwiz did Sages of met forecasting. I defer to their knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yoda is slipping or it's a bad run. Never thought you would say that Wes Just been busy this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Sages of met forecasting. I defer to their knowledge We're screwed cause Blizz dislikes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Matt should be in shortly with some Euro interpretation. It's out thru 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We're screwed cause Blizz dislikes the GFS That actually makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 euro out to 102...it has the storm...not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 probably north and too warm, but not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 probably north and too warm, but not sure that's "probably" what happens, but at least it's something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 looks warmer than 0z thru 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 probably north and too warm, but not sure euro has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 not happening this run.. maybe someone gets a light glaze tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 euro has a warm bias verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 verbatim, very light snow to start then quickly to rain...the sfc low moves from se Ohio right over us....we need it further south....All I am hoping for is a 1-2" snow to rain event though that is probably still a longshot Not good but there is still time. Something to watch. I just hope neither model throws us a S track and shows a thump only to yank it from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that's "probably" what happens, but at least it's something to track! . Agreed. At least it's on other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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