ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS keeps the dream alive, at least for 6 more hours. Today is the perfect day for that, because like Martin Luther i had a dream we get a few inches on Fri Night Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Screw it, I'm all in. I'm desperate. Matt's fluke is all we've got. <shakes> pass me the lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This GFS run actually has a good vort track for getting snow into DC. A vort tracking across TN is usually pretty good. It keeps the vort south of us and has a weak wave running south of us. At least it's a vaible solution. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and the ensembles think of it. Much of it's track depends on the timing up to the north which looks good for keeping the vort south even without a great atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? exactly; snow while there is a weak semblence of a disjointed -NAO on its way positive and a ridge over AK that's on life support moving NW to be replaced by another vortex then we torch....I'll take that this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This GFS run actually has a good vort track for getting snow into DC. A vort tracking across TN is usually pretty good. It keeps the vort south of us and has a weak wave running south of us. At least it's a vaible solution. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and the ensembles think of it. Much of it's track depends on the timing up to the north which looks good for keeping the vort south even without a great atl. Wes be carefull JI may troll you all weekend if we do not get snow, and unlike to JB you will not be getting an apology email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Widespread 2-4"? Sold. Let's do this. And it even starts on Day 4. A simple overrunning event that doesn't take a magical conjunction of 6 individually incredibly unlikely things to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Are most of you relying onwhat the euro is indicating for chances of snow???Im not sure how to read what the gfs is showing. But it appears, at the least there may be some possible snow/ice. On friday, is that correct?? It looks like a possible over running event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm naming this the Matt Fluke Storm and telling everyone to get on the Matt bus, mainly to make Ian seeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You guys probably want the clipper near us on Thursday night to trend stronger and force everything south for that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 exactly; snow while there is a weak semblence of a disjointed -NAO on its way positive and a ridge over AK that's on life support moving NW to be replaced by another vortex then we torch....I'll take that this year I think that would make all snow weenies and warministas happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wes be carefull JI may troll you all weekend if we do not get snow, and unlike to JB you will not be getting an apology email. Notice I was careful not to put out any amounts nor do I say it is right but as Mitchnick was alluding to, I don't think we can dismiss it out of hand and it's MLK day and tracker is onboard . and he's driving. What more can you ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Best looking opportunity for snow this winter! The Z storm is about to leave the station. All aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? If it snows, you and your warmingista crew are forbidden from enjoying it! Are most of you relying onwhat the euro is indicating for chances of snow???Im not sure how to read what the gfs is showing. But it appears, at the least there may be some possible snow/ice. On friday, is that correct?? It looks like a possible over running event The up arrow on the upper right corner of your browser window is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You guys probably want the clipper near us on Thursday night to trend stronger and force everything south for that potential. so we have to root for "you" guys to do well for us to do well? can we get back to you on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If it snows, you and your warmingista crew are forbidden from enjoying it! hey, I just said it would make both snow weenies and warministas happy if it were to happen that way. Some snow before it melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 exactly; snow while there is a weak semblence of a disjointed -NAO on its way positive and a ridge over AK that's on life support moving NW to be replaced by another vortex then we torch....I'll take that this year I don't know anything about the setup 10 years ago, but I clearly recall a 2-4" snow event around the same time in Jan 2002 followed by a huge torch a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 so we have to root for "you" guys to do well for us to do well? can we get back to you on that? Well it's more complicated than that, but I would think that you'd have a little more confluence if it did happen. It's a progressive flow so timing and intensity this far out will be hard to determine. But hey, nothing else to do in this winter, so might as well see what happens. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm naming this the Matt Fluke Storm and telling everyone to get on the Matt bus, mainly to make Ian seeth. yes i like this some back trolling car toppers and trash can lids FTW this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 yes i like this some back trolling car toppers and trash can lids FTW this year some back trolling? ok... snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Well it's more complicated than that, but I would think that you'd have a little more confluence if it did happen. It's a progressive flow so timing and intensity this far out will be hard to determine. But hey, nothing else to do in this winter, so might as well see what happens. Good luck. no, I was kidding, of course your thoughts are apprecaited p.s. I told everyone here not root for October snows....bad karma; I know Jerry felt the same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 so we have to root for "you" guys to do well for us to do well? can we get back to you on that? I'll root for them to get some snow, especially if it helps our chances. Also, they're all going to heart-broken around 7pm on Sunday when the Ravens win, so I don't want any toaster baths up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Notice I was careful not to put out any amounts nor do I say it is right but as Mitchnick was alluding to, I don't think we can dismiss it out of hand and it's MLK day and tracker is onboard . and he's driving. What more can you ask for? Better Atlantic and Neg Nao and positive PNA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 if it's going to snow this is probably how but what else shows this besides the gfs? the euro doesnt.. i dont check other models on my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 no, I was kidding, of course your thoughts are apprecaited p.s. I told everyone here not root for October snows....bad karma; I know Jerry felt the same way And of course the phrase "Wait until the other guidance comes out" definitely applies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 if it's going to snow this is probably how but what else shows this besides the gfs? the euro doesnt.. i dont check other models on my own. Stop being lazy, i hate trying to figure out the GGEM it's a pain in the ass. Maybe you can help me for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 And of course the phrase "Wait until the other guidance comes out" definitely applies here. I'm hugging any model that gives me snow and then torches me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Stop being lazy, i hate trying to figure out the GGEM it's a pain in the ass. Maybe you can help me for once. im sure someone on the bus can find it at some point and post it.. especially if it shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 if it's going to snow this is probably how but what else shows this besides the gfs? the euro doesnt.. i dont check other models on my own. The euro has a little snow west of us in the same time range but then warms it up so it's not completely on it own, only mostly on it. Still it's in the time range you can't completely blow it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 The euro has a little snow west of us in the same time range but then warms it up so it's not completely on it own, only mostly on it. Still it's in the time range you can't completely blow it off. Close doesn't count in snowstorms... It could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm hugging any model that gives me snow and then torches me. Then the GFS is your friend! ... we will have to enjoy the torch while it lasts, GFS has some pretty cold temps for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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