BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS teasing us at hour 114-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Goes further than that shortly thereafter Have a hard time believing what it shows later.You gentlemen and ladies are better at this than I. am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro weekies improve for mid February, with colder anomalies in the SE US to us, and warm anomalies over N/NE canada. The Monthly Euro sucks for the next two months but picking up on pattern changes isn't something it has done well. You don't have access to the longer range on the Euro by any chance do you? Noticed that the GFS the last couple of days is hinting at a -NAO in the longer range that doesn't seem to be so transitory and was curious if the Euro was seeing that as well past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6z gfs certainly looks frozen on this run just looking at 2m temps 850's and thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 To me it looks like 2-3" of snow/sleet ending as some freezing drizzle...eh...wrap it up i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You don't have access to the longer range on the Euro by any chance do you? Noticed that the GFS the last couple of days is hinting at a -NAO in the longer range that doesn't seem to be so transitory and was curious if the Euro was seeing that as well past day 10. Yep, the Euro pay site, expensive-ish but worth it, I guess. GFS is beginning to show the pattern transition that will begin the from the end of the month into the first week of February, might be pushing the envelope though. Now that we're closer I think it is possible to pin down the exact timeframes using the magnetic sun + current kinetic momentum as a guide. I think we see the 'transition' period from January 30 to February 7, and a sweet pattern from February 7 to February 20, followed by a break as the troughing regresses before a compensating weakness leads to another potentially wintry period from February 29 to March 15. No spring in April or May either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Even 00z euro is colder and shows potential. Where is the torch on 6z Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Persistence_Uncancel Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like JB may have to flop back to the flip. Even 00z euro is colder and shows potential. Where is the torch on 6z Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 So, the negative AO is more critical than the negative NAO? After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6Z GFS for BWI, DCA and IAD respectively http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD might want to save it because this run shows the best "legitimate" proged snow within 5 days we've had all winter if nothing else, it has Zwyt's fluke(s)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Unfortunately, the GFS ens don't have much support for the OP soluton. The Euro shows a couple of snow chances, even if they are slim, but it doesn't have the GFS type system it would seem. Hopefully the GFS op run is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6Z GFS for BWI, DCA and IAD respectively http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD might want to save it because this run shows the best "legitimate" proged snow within 5 days we've had all winter if nothing else, it has Zwyt's fluke(s)! If it happens, we can call it the Zwyts storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The euro ensembles seem to hint at the overrunning but it looks rather mild overall. I'd hold off on too much excitement right now, but there is some overrunning potential I guess. Would think some ice might be a concern for some, with the high wedged in like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Unfortunately, the GFS ens don't have much support for the OP soluton. The Euro shows a couple of snow chances, even if they are slim, but it doesn't have the GFS type system it would seem. Hopefully the GFS op run is on to something. I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. The only reason that I mentioned the Euro is that its snowfall maps did show a couple of shots of potential snow acc. for my area. Not so much for yours though. Regardless, I don't put any faith in that, I just wanted to see if it had the system as depicted on the the 6z GFS and it would seem that it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. Euro ensembles seem similar to the GEFS. Warm overall with maybe a little ice for some, but I don't see much more than that as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The only reason that I mentioned the Euro is that its snowfall maps did show a couple of shots of potential snow acc. for my area. Not so much for yours though. Regardless, I don't put any faith in that, I just wanted to see if it had the system as depicted on the the 6z GFS and it would seem that it doesn't. 0z euro did have some snow for the far Western burbs around hr 138....no biggie...we are just saying what the model output says not actually making a forecast...I for one will continue to do that whether the potential is real or has any remote chance...no harm in just saying what any particular run says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z euro did have some snow for the far Western burbs around hr 138....no biggie...we are just saying what the model output says not actually making a forecast...I for one will continue to do that whether the potential is real or has any remote chance...no harm in just saying what any particular run says. No harm at all but sometimes we disagree on what we think we see on the model runs and their implications. That's also worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 No harm at all but sometimes we disagree on what we think we see on the model runs and their implications. That's also worth discussing. I agree...but as a novice...really all some of us can look at is the basics....so If a 6z run of the gfs has qpf...2m temps in the upper 20's 850's of -6 and 500 thickness in the 530's....I'm saying it might be snow...as far as the euro if the run had pink or purple over a certain area during the run I'm saying it is showing snow....now that is not saying it will snow or anything like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 about an hour till we see the GFS lose it. I'm so desperate that I'm going to atually check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I agree...but as a novice...really all some of us can look at is the basics....so If a 6z run of the gfs has qpf...2m temps in the upper 20's 850's of -6 and 500 thickness in the 530's....I'm saying it might be snow...as far as the euro if the run had pink or purple over a certain area during the run I'm saying it is showing snow....now that is not saying it will snow or anything like that... Looking a little closer at the wunderground euro maps, I can see where the snow thoughts came from. The evolution of the 500h vort and track is strange but who knows. I didn't look at light snow events and the PNA/nao pattern. If indeed a weak low goes south of us, that would be a way to get a light overunning event. I've go my doubts about it but that means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looking a little closer at the wunderground euro maps, I can see where the snow thoughts came from. The evolution of the 500h vort and track is strange but who knows. I didn't look at light snow events and the PNA/nao pattern. If indeed a weak low goes south of us, that would be a way to get a light overunning event. I've go my doubts about it but that means little. I'm 100% on your side when it comes to the chances of it actually snowing...at this stage of the stinky winter though it's about what an individual snapshot of a model run may look like....trust me Wes there is no anticipation of any type of event coming from me...right or wrong I was just saying what the 6z gfs showed at that hour. Tough winter to be a snow lover for sure...I'm just glad I don't post that often anymore...as I am sure others are glad of that fact as well....peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 about an hour till we see the GFS lose it. I'm so desperate that I'm going to atually check it. LOL...this sums up my frame of mind exactly. It's a kind of "desperate and insubstantial optimism" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS keeps the dream alive, at least for 6 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS is certainly cold enough next Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I still don't understand the poo-pooing of runs we all know and understand these models print out fantasies and simply discuss what they show nothing in weather model runs is taken as gospel, especially beyond 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I still don't understand the poo-pooing of runs we all know and understand these models print out fantasies and simply discuss what they show nothing in weather model runs is taken as gospel, especially beyond 24 hrs Hush, we just got another extension on life support for another 6 hours. Praise the GFS....until 5:30 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I love how the GFS has the polar vortex migrating west to form a new Low over AK what a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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