CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. Euro ensembles seem similar to the GEFS. Warm overall with maybe a little ice for some, but I don't see much more than that as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The only reason that I mentioned the Euro is that its snowfall maps did show a couple of shots of potential snow acc. for my area. Not so much for yours though. Regardless, I don't put any faith in that, I just wanted to see if it had the system as depicted on the the 6z GFS and it would seem that it doesn't. 0z euro did have some snow for the far Western burbs around hr 138....no biggie...we are just saying what the model output says not actually making a forecast...I for one will continue to do that whether the potential is real or has any remote chance...no harm in just saying what any particular run says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z euro did have some snow for the far Western burbs around hr 138....no biggie...we are just saying what the model output says not actually making a forecast...I for one will continue to do that whether the potential is real or has any remote chance...no harm in just saying what any particular run says. No harm at all but sometimes we disagree on what we think we see on the model runs and their implications. That's also worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 No harm at all but sometimes we disagree on what we think we see on the model runs and their implications. That's also worth discussing. I agree...but as a novice...really all some of us can look at is the basics....so If a 6z run of the gfs has qpf...2m temps in the upper 20's 850's of -6 and 500 thickness in the 530's....I'm saying it might be snow...as far as the euro if the run had pink or purple over a certain area during the run I'm saying it is showing snow....now that is not saying it will snow or anything like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 about an hour till we see the GFS lose it. I'm so desperate that I'm going to atually check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I agree...but as a novice...really all some of us can look at is the basics....so If a 6z run of the gfs has qpf...2m temps in the upper 20's 850's of -6 and 500 thickness in the 530's....I'm saying it might be snow...as far as the euro if the run had pink or purple over a certain area during the run I'm saying it is showing snow....now that is not saying it will snow or anything like that... Looking a little closer at the wunderground euro maps, I can see where the snow thoughts came from. The evolution of the 500h vort and track is strange but who knows. I didn't look at light snow events and the PNA/nao pattern. If indeed a weak low goes south of us, that would be a way to get a light overunning event. I've go my doubts about it but that means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looking a little closer at the wunderground euro maps, I can see where the snow thoughts came from. The evolution of the 500h vort and track is strange but who knows. I didn't look at light snow events and the PNA/nao pattern. If indeed a weak low goes south of us, that would be a way to get a light overunning event. I've go my doubts about it but that means little. I'm 100% on your side when it comes to the chances of it actually snowing...at this stage of the stinky winter though it's about what an individual snapshot of a model run may look like....trust me Wes there is no anticipation of any type of event coming from me...right or wrong I was just saying what the 6z gfs showed at that hour. Tough winter to be a snow lover for sure...I'm just glad I don't post that often anymore...as I am sure others are glad of that fact as well....peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 about an hour till we see the GFS lose it. I'm so desperate that I'm going to atually check it. LOL...this sums up my frame of mind exactly. It's a kind of "desperate and insubstantial optimism" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS keeps the dream alive, at least for 6 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS is certainly cold enough next Fri/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I still don't understand the poo-pooing of runs we all know and understand these models print out fantasies and simply discuss what they show nothing in weather model runs is taken as gospel, especially beyond 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I still don't understand the poo-pooing of runs we all know and understand these models print out fantasies and simply discuss what they show nothing in weather model runs is taken as gospel, especially beyond 24 hrs Hush, we just got another extension on life support for another 6 hours. Praise the GFS....until 5:30 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I love how the GFS has the polar vortex migrating west to form a new Low over AK what a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z GFS keeps the dream alive, at least for 6 more hours. Today is the perfect day for that, because like Martin Luther i had a dream we get a few inches on Fri Night Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Screw it, I'm all in. I'm desperate. Matt's fluke is all we've got. <shakes> pass me the lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This GFS run actually has a good vort track for getting snow into DC. A vort tracking across TN is usually pretty good. It keeps the vort south of us and has a weak wave running south of us. At least it's a vaible solution. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and the ensembles think of it. Much of it's track depends on the timing up to the north which looks good for keeping the vort south even without a great atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? exactly; snow while there is a weak semblence of a disjointed -NAO on its way positive and a ridge over AK that's on life support moving NW to be replaced by another vortex then we torch....I'll take that this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This GFS run actually has a good vort track for getting snow into DC. A vort tracking across TN is usually pretty good. It keeps the vort south of us and has a weak wave running south of us. At least it's a vaible solution. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and the ensembles think of it. Much of it's track depends on the timing up to the north which looks good for keeping the vort south even without a great atl. Wes be carefull JI may troll you all weekend if we do not get snow, and unlike to JB you will not be getting an apology email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Widespread 2-4"? Sold. Let's do this. And it even starts on Day 4. A simple overrunning event that doesn't take a magical conjunction of 6 individually incredibly unlikely things to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Are most of you relying onwhat the euro is indicating for chances of snow???Im not sure how to read what the gfs is showing. But it appears, at the least there may be some possible snow/ice. On friday, is that correct?? It looks like a possible over running event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'm naming this the Matt Fluke Storm and telling everyone to get on the Matt bus, mainly to make Ian seeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You guys probably want the clipper near us on Thursday night to trend stronger and force everything south for that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 exactly; snow while there is a weak semblence of a disjointed -NAO on its way positive and a ridge over AK that's on life support moving NW to be replaced by another vortex then we torch....I'll take that this year I think that would make all snow weenies and warministas happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wes be carefull JI may troll you all weekend if we do not get snow, and unlike to JB you will not be getting an apology email. Notice I was careful not to put out any amounts nor do I say it is right but as Mitchnick was alluding to, I don't think we can dismiss it out of hand and it's MLK day and tracker is onboard . and he's driving. What more can you ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Best looking opportunity for snow this winter! The Z storm is about to leave the station. All aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A little snow before the torch? If it snows, you and your warmingista crew are forbidden from enjoying it! Are most of you relying onwhat the euro is indicating for chances of snow???Im not sure how to read what the gfs is showing. But it appears, at the least there may be some possible snow/ice. On friday, is that correct?? It looks like a possible over running event The up arrow on the upper right corner of your browser window is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You guys probably want the clipper near us on Thursday night to trend stronger and force everything south for that potential. so we have to root for "you" guys to do well for us to do well? can we get back to you on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If it snows, you and your warmingista crew are forbidden from enjoying it! hey, I just said it would make both snow weenies and warministas happy if it were to happen that way. Some snow before it melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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