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January storm threat discussion #2


Ian

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Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl.

The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt.

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Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl.

:lol:

Don't deny what's coming

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Both the gfs and euro are probably showing the worst 10 day look of the season and that's saying something. I don't see a single encouraging thing. Maybe wes, coastal, hm, or orh can read between the lines for me because it aint pretty imo.

This pac regime needs to break down into something good pretty quickly in Feb or our chances at a decent even just got knocked down a few notches.

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The 204+ hour GFS really puts it in perspective. Only in this winter do you have a low coming up from the Gulf Coast with a 1040+ banana high to the north and west and the low still drives up to our west.

Yeah, the look really doesn't make sense to this non-met. But since the look will be completely different closer to that time frame, it doesn't make any difference.

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This is low probability....probably like 15%, but maybe we sneak something flawed in the next Thu-Sat period before the torch takes hold...It is a longshot as the models aren't very bullish for us, but we can always hope they are wrong....especially on the weak THU/FRI event that goes north of us

models still hinting at this...probably still a longshot but maybe they will trend in our favor..becoming increasingly likely that we megatorch by early next week....

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Yeah, the look really doesn't make sense to this non-met. But since the look will be completely different closer to that time frame, it doesn't make any difference.

Chances are good that that won't verify as shown but I was referring more to the fact that the GFS, which is known for it's fantasy snowstorms, can't even give us one with what looks to be a decent setup. Only in this winter. :)

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No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif

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models still hinting at this...probably still a longshot but maybe they will trend in our favor..becoming increasingly likely that we megatorch by early next week....

only chance i really snow is the start of the next storm after the tuesday storm(friday night-saturday morning?).

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No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif

what do you mean its been a while? We have these sitty winters all the time!

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No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif

If that forecast is close to verifying, then it's looking like a nice spring and summer...

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No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif

Am I reading the charts correctly? For Feb and March 1-2 degrees warmer than normal?

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