clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 that starts to happen at the end of the gfes run, but the pac vortex is still there http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Wow. That is one disgusting model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 it's so pretty Cannot. Wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wow. That is one disgusting model run. You can see -AO get it's ass kicked and the Vortex reclaim the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Tuesday Rain...mainly in the morning. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 14 below. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 ensembles are trying to rise heights near Feb 1 but I am guessing feb 1 to Feb 15 is toast http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f360_nh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. What's encouraging to me from that graphic is that there are a bunch of events with either the NAO or the AO positive (I wasn't sure which axis was measuring what), and 16 with both positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 What's encouraging to me from that graphic is that there are a bunch of events with either the NAO or the AO positive (I wasn't sure which axis was measuring what), and 16 with both positive. Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? You'll have to ask the author. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Here's a challenge: how many of those were in Ninas? The 16 events constitutes 22 percent. The other question is how many had a positive PNA. I think then the percentage goes down to about 11% if I remember correctly but that will be in Tuesday's CWG piece. I never looked at enso. That may be the next step now that I've set up the spread sheet. I just need to find daily enso readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't think I've seen it mentioned, is there a (or how many) winter on record where we received less than 1" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Were you not smart enough to wear a hat and gloves while running this morning? No, but I only had to because I'd be uncomfortable without them. Uncomfortable temps = gloves, confortable temps = no gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 this looks encouraging....big SE ridge to eastern trough and -NAO a few days later? or am i grasping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 this looks encouraging....big SE ridge to eastern trough and -NAO a few days later? or am i grasping? Naa extrapolating the 384 GFS is solid weeniesm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro weekies improve for mid February, with colder anomalies in the SE US to us, and warm anomalies over N/NE canada. The Monthly Euro sucks for the next two months but picking up on pattern changes isn't something it has done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS teasing us at hour 114-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Goes further than that shortly thereafter Have a hard time believing what it shows later.You gentlemen and ladies are better at this than I. am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro weekies improve for mid February, with colder anomalies in the SE US to us, and warm anomalies over N/NE canada. The Monthly Euro sucks for the next two months but picking up on pattern changes isn't something it has done well. You don't have access to the longer range on the Euro by any chance do you? Noticed that the GFS the last couple of days is hinting at a -NAO in the longer range that doesn't seem to be so transitory and was curious if the Euro was seeing that as well past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6z gfs certainly looks frozen on this run just looking at 2m temps 850's and thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 To me it looks like 2-3" of snow/sleet ending as some freezing drizzle...eh...wrap it up i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You don't have access to the longer range on the Euro by any chance do you? Noticed that the GFS the last couple of days is hinting at a -NAO in the longer range that doesn't seem to be so transitory and was curious if the Euro was seeing that as well past day 10. Yep, the Euro pay site, expensive-ish but worth it, I guess. GFS is beginning to show the pattern transition that will begin the from the end of the month into the first week of February, might be pushing the envelope though. Now that we're closer I think it is possible to pin down the exact timeframes using the magnetic sun + current kinetic momentum as a guide. I think we see the 'transition' period from January 30 to February 7, and a sweet pattern from February 7 to February 20, followed by a break as the troughing regresses before a compensating weakness leads to another potentially wintry period from February 29 to March 15. No spring in April or May either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Even 00z euro is colder and shows potential. Where is the torch on 6z Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Persistence_Uncancel Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like JB may have to flop back to the flip. Even 00z euro is colder and shows potential. Where is the torch on 6z Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 So, the negative AO is more critical than the negative NAO? After looking at that map, I don't know whether this post is good news or bad. I did a scatter diagram of all all the 4 inch or greater events since 150 except the one last year showing the NAO index value versus the AO index value. The surprising thing to me is it looked like the negative AO had a higher freuqency of 4 inch or greater event than the NAO. I think it might be because the NAO is actually measure as the difference between the heights or pressure from the Azores to Iceland which is a little east of where we want our blocking. Anyway, here's the graphic. I have a pna versus NAO graphic that will be posted with a CWG peice tomorrow or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6Z GFS for BWI, DCA and IAD respectively http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD might want to save it because this run shows the best "legitimate" proged snow within 5 days we've had all winter if nothing else, it has Zwyt's fluke(s)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Unfortunately, the GFS ens don't have much support for the OP soluton. The Euro shows a couple of snow chances, even if they are slim, but it doesn't have the GFS type system it would seem. Hopefully the GFS op run is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 6Z GFS for BWI, DCA and IAD respectively http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KBWI http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KIAD might want to save it because this run shows the best "legitimate" proged snow within 5 days we've had all winter if nothing else, it has Zwyt's fluke(s)! If it happens, we can call it the Zwyts storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The euro ensembles seem to hint at the overrunning but it looks rather mild overall. I'd hold off on too much excitement right now, but there is some overrunning potential I guess. Would think some ice might be a concern for some, with the high wedged in like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Unfortunately, the GFS ens don't have much support for the OP soluton. The Euro shows a couple of snow chances, even if they are slim, but it doesn't have the GFS type system it would seem. Hopefully the GFS op run is on to something. I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't see any snow chances on the euro, only on the GFS which doesn't have much support from the ens members unless the euro ens members are showing storm chances. Getting a storm with a negative PNA is pretty tough unless you've got help with a negative ao and then it's still tough. The only reason that I mentioned the Euro is that its snowfall maps did show a couple of shots of potential snow acc. for my area. Not so much for yours though. Regardless, I don't put any faith in that, I just wanted to see if it had the system as depicted on the the 6z GFS and it would seem that it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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