nw baltimore wx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 How do you figure? Temp wise or storm chances? I don't see much in the way of snow chances. lol Yes, like Fozz said. Temperature-wise. Regardless of snow, I like winter to feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 lol Yes, like Fozz said. Temperature-wise. Regardless of snow, I like winter to feel like winter. It will warm up next week though, ahead of the low. Then, the torch cometh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl. The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl. Don't deny what's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It will warm up next week though, ahead of the low. Then, the torch cometh. no, this is a torch http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/7/15/MonthlyHistory.html what's coming for us is a January thaw in a warm, snowless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 no, this is a torch http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html what's coming for us is a January thaw in a warm, snowless winter What's to thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt. That's what gloves are for if you're that worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Hour 348 on GFS. Is the worm beginning to turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt. Were you not smart enough to wear a hat and gloves while running this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt. It's sunny out and anyone who isn't a whiny wimp is going about their day normally without complaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z Euro is suckolicius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Now there's an interesting word. Suckolicious!!! Guess that says it all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Both the gfs and euro are probably showing the worst 10 day look of the season and that's saying something. I don't see a single encouraging thing. Maybe wes, coastal, hm, or orh can read between the lines for me because it aint pretty imo. This pac regime needs to break down into something good pretty quickly in Feb or our chances at a decent even just got knocked down a few notches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 204+ hour GFS really puts it in perspective. Only in this winter do you have a low coming up from the Gulf Coast with a 1040+ banana high to the north and west and the low still drives up to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The windchills are in the teens, dude. How is that nice? Thats enough to make your hands hurt. can't wait to hear about you frying an egg on the blacktop during the upcoming torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 204+ hour GFS really puts it in perspective. Only in this winter do you have a low coming up from the Gulf Coast with a 1040+ banana high to the north and west and the low still drives up to our west. Yeah, the look really doesn't make sense to this non-met. But since the look will be completely different closer to that time frame, it doesn't make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This is low probability....probably like 15%, but maybe we sneak something flawed in the next Thu-Sat period before the torch takes hold...It is a longshot as the models aren't very bullish for us, but we can always hope they are wrong....especially on the weak THU/FRI event that goes north of us models still hinting at this...probably still a longshot but maybe they will trend in our favor..becoming increasingly likely that we megatorch by early next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yeah, the look really doesn't make sense to this non-met. But since the look will be completely different closer to that time frame, it doesn't make any difference. Chances are good that that won't verify as shown but I was referring more to the fact that the GFS, which is known for it's fantasy snowstorms, can't even give us one with what looks to be a decent setup. Only in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 models still hinting at this...probably still a longshot but maybe they will trend in our favor..becoming increasingly likely that we megatorch by early next week.... Agreed... going to be quite cold late next week with a couple vorts to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 and right after I wrote the post above, I look at the 18Z NAM and see that fluke may be lurking just beyond that run (if it's right)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 models still hinting at this...probably still a longshot but maybe they will trend in our favor..becoming increasingly likely that we megatorch by early next week.... only chance i really snow is the start of the next storm after the tuesday storm(friday night-saturday morning?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif what do you mean its been a while? We have these sitty winters all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's not going to snow .. we'll live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 what do you mean its been a while? We have these sitty winters all the time! I said a while since a skunk of course we get cr@ppy winters, we're south of 40N but this winter has included the eastern 2/3's, which is pretty unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 it's not going to snow .. we'll live exactly just like after a car accident, the bodies are scraped off the pavement and the traffic begins to flow again life goes on (we hope!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif If that forecast is close to verifying, then it's looking like a nice spring and summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No one can argue the CFS has been all over this winter. It seems to have good years and bad years and this has been a good year for it. The FEB forecast continues to get WARMER. The reality is, if the CFS maintains its accuracy for the rest of the winter, I think we are looking good for a skunk. It really seems to come down to whether we can sneak in a fluke. I don't know, maybe we can, but you can rest assured if we do, 48 hrs later will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Oh well, it's been a while since we had one of these kinds of winter so I guess we, and the rest of the country east of the Miss., were due. Good Lord with us, we'll make it to next year and hope for a weak NINO. Oh yeah, today's CFS monthly forecast: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif Am I reading the charts correctly? For Feb and March 1-2 degrees warmer than normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Am I reading the charts correctly? For Feb and March 1-2 degrees warmer than normal? looks to me like Feb is 2-3 warmer and March is 1-2 warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Am I reading the charts correctly? For Feb and March 1-2 degrees warmer than normal? looks to me like Feb is 2-3 warmer and March is 1-2 warmer The charts are in Kelvins, so multiply the departures by 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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