Ian Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 I think pessismism is warranted, though getting 0.6" for the winter is super rare.....even <4" is pretty hard......I think anything is still on the table though if I was issung a revision, I would put the seasonal over/under at DCA at around 5-8" I'm about as pessimistic as they come but I don't see how we end up with less than that. It would be pretty remarkable to get through Feb without a storm that drops a few inches. I just don't think we'll fluke out before then.. perhaps at the very end of the month if we're really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 If the euro is right at 240 hrs maybe we can pop a pseudo positive PNA look and have a chance after that low goes to the lakels and eventually drags a front by us. The nao at 240 hrs is postive but the AO is not. I've got some nice graphics that I hope Jason will let me post next week in pattern discussion article. Greg will be doing one so Jason might not want oen from me. I've plotted the PNA versus the nao and ao and the nao verus the ao for 4 inch or greater events at DCA. day 10 has 7am temps in the 60's at memphis, 50's for all of va up to central new jersey, even green bay is in the 50's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Midlo we have a chance of getting past 70 in this event if all goes right (or wrong depending on your perspective). If the model is that warm SRAIN migh get his wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Midlo we have a chance of getting past 70 in this event if all goes right (or wrong depending on your perspective). If the model is that warm SRAIN migh get his wish. Don't shoot the messenger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger... Around here that's standard practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Around here that's standard practice. How well I know, Wes. How well I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 How well I know, Wes. How well I know. But usually it is done in fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm about as pessimistic as they come but I don't see how we end up with less than that. It would be pretty remarkable to get through Feb without a storm that drops a few inches. I just don't think we'll fluke out before then.. perhaps at the very end of the month if we're really lucky. It worries me we didn't get a fluke already....lots of winters were virtual shutouts in Feb/March.....one 2-4" would actually make me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It worries me we didn't get a fluke already....lots of winters were virtual shutouts in Feb/March.....one 2-4" would actually make me happy That also worries me and I don't see anything in the next 12 to 13 days which puts us almost through the month. Still model forecast past 5 days aren't that good so I guess it's not hopeless but in this pattern even if they are wrong they would have to be monumentally wrong to give us much before day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I would not be suprised if we get at the end of February and there is no snow. Someone will make a 2012-2013 winter preliminary as a topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Matt, I saw your reference to the PV over Greenland moving east. When I look at the last three frames of the ec 500 loop, it looks like the PV in cenral Canada splits, and the two PVs are moving away from each other pretty quickly. I guess it's logical that there would be ridging around them both? If they are too close to each other would that support a flat ridge type signature between them? And, if they are ideally placed would the ridging near them promote a blocky type trough between them? Just trying to figure out some of this, and thought you, Ian, or Wes might chime in if you have time. Also, if you took the 10 day height pattern, ideally where would you like to see it progress to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 one thing I've noticed all winter is the lack of a trough over Japan, JB's old tele for a sustained trough in the east today's 12Z Euro is finally putting a trough into Japan fwiw no guarantee, but it is a change from anything since the beginning of DEC http://www.ecmwf.int...2011412!!!step/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 If the euro is right at 240 hrs maybe we can pop a pseudo positive PNA look and have a chance after that low goes to the lakels and eventually drags a front by us. The nao at 240 hrs is postive but the AO is not. I've got some nice graphics that I hope Jason will let me post next week in pattern discussion article. Greg will be doing one so Jason might not want oen from me. I've plotted the PNA versus the nao and ao and the nao verus the ao for 4 inch or greater events at DCA. The same ECMWF that showed a negative NAO greenland block on sme runs at 240 earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The same ECMWF that showed a negative NAO greenland block on sme runs at 240 earlier this week. That's true and the euro ensemble mean looks pretty warm and bleak through the run. It's got a postive nao and negative pdo thru 240 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Matt, I saw your reference to the PV over Greenland moving east. When I look at the last three frames of the ec 500 loop, it looks like the PV in cenral Canada splits, and the two PVs are moving away from each other pretty quickly. I guess it's logical that there would be ridging around them both? If they are too close to each other would that support a flat ridge type signature between them? And, if they are ideally placed would the ridging near them promote a blocky type trough between them? Just trying to figure out some of this, and thought you, Ian, or Wes might chime in if you have time. Also, if you took the 10 day height pattern, ideally where would you like to see it progress to? The PV over greenland is bad. We need a ridge over Greenland and a low to its south or a ridge pusing eastwrd from the west coast. Neither looks to be met anytime soon. Without one of those if gets tough to get much snow. Not impossible but not something you'd bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That's true and the euro ensemble mean looks pretty warm and bleak through the run. It's got a postive nao and negative pdo thru 240 hrs. I assume you had yours on because you alwas put saftey first, but as a warning to some of the n00bs on this board: DO NOT LOOK AT THE EURO ENSEMBLES WITHOUT A PAIR OF THESE RATED AT OD5 OR HIGHER. THEY WILL CAUSE PERMANENT BLINDNESS!!! http://www.onlinesci...ook-at-sun.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Ji: Step back from the ledge. Here are some events to track; three weeks until SuperBowl the final three weeks of February could bring some rare snow to DC Wes goes fishing for a month about six weeks from now. Take a deep breath. We can do this. <Dick Vitale>...And don't forget March Madness just around the corner, baby!!</Dick Vitale> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS is now forecasting a monster High over SE Canda in the last week of Jan that would kill the torch for us despite the bad 500mb pattern http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120115/00/gfs_namer_276_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 lol 6z GFS has the +15C at 850 reaching into lower southern MD a week from now. With that kind of warmth if the arctic airmass over the northern plains can progress farther south before the jets phase at least we'd break out of the doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS is now forecasting a monster High over SE Canda in the last week of Jan that would kill the torch for us despite the bad 500mb pattern http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120115/00/gfs_namer_276_1000_500_thick.gif Larry Cosgroves new update is quite depressing. You were right when you said winter is over back in Nov...I didn't want to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Larry Cosgroves new update is quite depressing. You were right when you said winter is over back in Nov...I didn't want to believe it. sucks but there is still plenty of time to get 1 or 2 events before winter is really over. LC saying winter over may be the best thing we can have happen to us based on his forecasting this year:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 March rolled in like a lion in 2009 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Whether he's right or wrong does not reaaly matter. His final statement about whst the super ensemble has been saying is relavent. Winter does not come to the mid lattitudes this year. He says it been. Right. From what i read here the ec ensemnbles are saying the same thing. Reality is hard to deny!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Whether he's right or wrong does not reaaly matter. His final statement about whst the super ensemble has been saying is relavent. Winter does not come to the mid lattitudes this year. He says it been. Right. From what i read here the ec ensemnbles are saying the same thing. Reality is hard to deny!!! Wah! Winters Over! Wah! This climate sucks, it never snows, it's always hot! Wah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Wah! Winters Over! Wah! This climate sucks, it never snows, it's always hot! Wah! Good quote your probably right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 When people start saying winter's over, that's when you should expect light at the end of the tunnel or in our case hour 384 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just to give you guys an update, the EC ensembles still try to carry that weak ridging in the DS. The GOA low does try to lift, but it's still pretty ugly as displayed right now. My guess is anything worthwhile will wait until sometime in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just to give you guys an update, the EC ensembles still try to carry that weak ridging in the DS. The GOA low does try to lift, but it's still pretty ugly as displayed right now. My guess is anything worthwhile will wait until sometime in Feb. Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Thanks for the update. Obviously there's no snow, but it's pretty nice out there right now. A good weather day for Bmore to be in the spotlight, and the next week doesn't look terrible for those of us that haven't caved to mapgirl. How do you figure? Temp wise or storm chances? I don't see much in the way of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 How do you figure? Temp wise or storm chances? I don't see much in the way of snow chances. Temp-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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