January storm threat discussion #2

[CheesyPoofs]

if you think Im bad here....nothing compared to what I am like on the Washington Wizards board lol

RealGm still?

And I'll set the over/under on your break from the boards at 12 hours

[PhineasC]

Brad,

Why are you attributing to me this quote,

"If we even have a slight chance for a cold air mass it will live in a 24-36hr window. When the precip comes it will always lose with the warm air it brings. If we are real lucky and I mean

lucky it looks like the back end of the storms

were cold air is pulled in. Usually flurries for

most. "SPRINTER" will dominate the rest of our

season. SPRINTER: spring and winter fighting a race, to keep winter or go straight to spring. We all know who wins. Sprinter takes the gold by a long shot."

You've attributed me to this remark, one I never said it and have no idea what "Sprinter" is or will dominate. Please be careful when you quote someone.

It looks like he was very clumsily trying to show you what that dude Margusity from Accuweather wrote on his blog and instead ended up blending the two posts together. From what I can tell he is a total weenie and can safely be five-posted.

[usedtobe]

It looks like he was very clumsily trying to show you what that dude Margusity from Accuweather wrote on his blog and instead ended up blending the two posts together. From what I can tell he is a total weenie and can safely be five-posted.

I don't want him 5 posted. I'm a weenie too and before I became a met I probably would have been 5 post material. I thought it probably was a careless mistake and that the latter was his thinking that somehow got embedded in the quote and thus was attributed to me, but Brad needs to be more careful and if he makes a mistake like that, needs to correct it.

[mdsnowlover]

Washington has a basketball team? hmm, didn't know that

apparently, neither did the Wizards!

Neither do the owners!! I wouldnt get too frustrated from what i hace read either no one eants to play or they flat iut cant. Six of one. Half a dozen the other.

[stormtracker]

I don't remember a worse period of hopelessness and despondency here. It's all justified. I think we get 1 event late February or into early March and that should wrap it up.

At this point, we should hope for a decent spring.

[Bob Chill]

I was digging through everything I've saved and researched this winter and think I probably found the best analog that I can find. 1999-00 seems to fit in alot of ways. I don't know enough about PDO and EPO to make the connection but maybe somebody who does can compare those indicies.

My optimistic post yesterday was inherently flawed. I spilled the beans but here are the nuts and bolts. When I pulled my AO december analogs earlier this year, ther were 5 Nina years amongst the mix. Some are good ENSO fits and some aren't. The 5 include a mix of first year, strong following Ninos, and second year Ninas.

99-00 is a really good fit based on multiple factors. ENSO is a really good fit because it is a second year Nina following a Nino. Exactly where we are with ENSO right now. Of course there's variances with the strength but the overally similarities can't be overlooked.

I pulled the 5 AO daily graphs I put together and compared them to what we've seen so far this season and again, 99-00 looks really good:

Here is the 99-00 AO Daily:

And compare that to the dailies so far this season:

The charts cover different time periods so you need to kinda force fit the YTD into days 1-75 on the graph I put together. Looks like a great match so far this year. Not good news really but a good statistical match.

There were 4 other Nina years from my analog set but they aren't as well matched as 99-00:

What does this hint at for Feb temps? Probably nothing anybody wants to see but here is a classic Feb Nina look using the 5 anaolgs:

I don't remember snowfall in 99-00 very well. If anyone has the exact details of snowfall that year I would be interested.

I hope I'm 100% wrong with what I'm thinking and seeing but if I had to wager a bet on Feb temps I would continue with above normal here in the east. The west might be looking good though. We'll see how it shakes out but the rockies and sierras could be in a snowy time after a really rough start to the season.

[Fozz]

I don't remember snowfall in 99-00 very well. If anyone has the exact details of snowfall that year I would be interested.

I hope I'm 100% wrong with what I'm thinking and seeing but if I had to wager a bet on Feb temps I would continue with above normal here in the east. The west might be looking good though. We'll see how it shakes out but the rockies and sierras could be in a snowy time after a really rough start to the season.

1999-00 was a decent winter in the mid-Atlantic because there was a nice 3 week cold period in from mid-Jan to early Feb with about 3-4 snowstorms, including a MECS on 1/25 (with 8-16"). However, the rest of the winter was a torch.

I'm sure zwyts and some others can explain it better than I can.

[Deck Pic]

I don't remember snowfall in 99-00 very well. If anyone has the exact details of snowfall that year I would be interested.

I hope I'm 100% wrong with what I'm thinking and seeing but if I had to wager a bet on Feb temps I would continue with above normal here in the east. The west might be looking good though. We'll see how it shakes out but the rockies and sierras could be in a snowy time after a really rough start to the season.

In December we got 2 minor cartop/dusting events that were not worth talking about

January was an absoute torch until around mid month when we got a block and a split flow and then we got frigid and snowy

There were 5 events...a dusting to an inch event on the 18th, a 3-6" snow on the 20th, Jan 25th of course, a rain/snow line event on super bowl sunday where the burbs got rocked and DC east got some slop and then some decent ZR, and then a snow shower type of event on 2/3

Later in FEB we had a small sleet/ice event

March was a torch...we were in the 80s by the end of the 1st week.....

The one thing about 99-2000 other than the great 2 week period that defined winter is that we had at least 2 ZR events and we haven't had any this winter yet.....Other than that it was one of the warmest if not the warmest winter on record for the CONUS....

EDIT: Since I moved into DC proper for the 98-99 season, 99-00 is my 3rd biggest winter after 09-10 and 02-03 at around 20"

[Feb]

In December we got 2 minor cartop/dusting events that were not worth talking about

January was an absoute torch until around mid month when we got a block and a split flow and then we got frigid and snowy

There were 5 events...a dusting to an inch event on the 18th, a 3-6" snow on the 20th, Jan 25th of course, a rain/snow line event on super bowl sunday where the burbs got rocked and DC east got some slop and then some decent ZR, and then a snow shower type of event on 2/3

Later in FEB we had a small sleet/ice event

March was a torch...we were in the 80s by the end of the 1st week.....

The one thing about 99-2000 other than the great 2 week period that defined winter is that we had at least 2 ZR events and we haven't had any this winter yet.....Other than that it was one of the warmest if not the warmest winter on record for the CONUS....

I think we need to hang our hat on that for sometime in february. We have had past winters where most of the winter was nothing but a small window allowed for some decent snow and cold. Of course this year could be one of those winters that never happen.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks zwyts. You either have the memory rainman or keep excellent records. I kinda remember some decent winter weather amongst an overall warm winter. It was my first winter back from 7 years in CO so I didn't care much that year.

You would have to think that we squeeze a few more events out this year. I just don't see how we get shutout from at the very least a 1-3 or two.

I think the perfect pattern is pretty much off the table. Especially if the pac goes wide open to finish Jan. Maybe we get lucky with a strong lakes cutter that temporarily shakes up the high latitudes. There has been just about zero cooperation up north this winter. All we've had so far this year is a country full of pac air and a few pna spikes that brought some cold canadian air down. Crazy boring if you ask me.

Of course time will tell. Let's get past the big warmup coming and see what takes shape afterwards. This might be one of those years with a productive March. I've started pulling together my NAO data and there seems to be a tendency for blocking during the first half of March following the dominant pattern we've seen so far.

[Deck Pic]

I think we need to hang our hat on that for sometime in february. We have had past winters where most of the winter was nothing but a small window allowed for some decent snow and cold. Of course this year could be one of those winters that never happen.

I could see getting a mini-2000 period sometime later on....And I say "mini" for 2 reasons....first, I doubt we can get a stable pattern for as long as we did in 2000 with such stark negative departures....so I think any "good" pattern will probably be shorter and less severe....and second, the later we have this period, the smaller the snow events are likely to be....2/1-2/15 would be ideal, but it isnt looking good to happen that quickly....but the earlier the better....we also got a good period in 1998-99, but it was later on so we didn't capitalize as much though the western burbs did kind of clean up.....the cold pattern was 2/20-3/15 with a re-load in the 1st week of march.....the 1st half we got one small snow event but otherwise cold and dry (The PAC sucked the entire time unlike the 99-00 period)...the 3/7-3/15 period we got a baffin island/davis straits block and 3 big events but the 1st and the 3rd were elevation/climo event and kind of sucked here in DC.....the 1st one on the 4th wasnt good at IAD either...was a MD special..I think we got a cartopper too in there....

What's good is there is precedent for good late periods/storms in some La Ninas....1956, 1962, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2009 all a big late season storm and/or period.....and even if we don't get a good late period, I like the narrative of getting bookended with 2 climo events...so I am on the record calling for a big March storm, perhaps mid to late March, that pummels Trixie and maybe Ji and me and ian get 0.3" of slop

[Feb]

I could see getting a mini-2000 period sometime later on....And I say "mini" for 2 reasons....first, I doubt we can get a stable pattern for as long as we did in 2000 with such stark negative departures....so I think any "good" pattern will probably be shorter and less severe....and second, the later we have this period, the smaller the snow events are likely to be....2/1-2/15 would be ideal, but it isnt looking good to happen that quickly....but the earlier the better....we also got a good period in 1998-99, but it was later on so we didn't capitalize as much though the western burbs did kind of clean up.....the cold pattern was 2/20-3/15 with a re-load in the 1st week of march.....the 1st half we got one small snow event but otherwise cold and dry (The PAC sucked the entire time unlike the 99-00 period)...the 3/7-3/15 period we got a baffin island/davis straits block and 3 big events but the 1st and the 3rd were elevation/climo event and kind of sucked here in DC.....the 1st one on the 4th wasnt good at IAD either...was a MD special..I think we got a cartopper too in there....

What's good is there is precedent for good late periods/storms in some La Ninas....1956, 1962, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2009 all a big late season storm and/or period.....and even if we don't get a good late period, I like the narrative of getting bookended with 2 climo events...so I am on the record calling for a big March storm, perhaps mid to late March, that pummels Trixie and maybe Ji and me and ian get 0.3" of slop

Thanks for the reply Matt. I wish i had the memory you do of past events! I just checked those nina's you mentioned and indeed there were some good events in those years up here in Southern Pa also. The date 2001 sticks out as the March that Could Have Been. Maybe this year we get our revenge on that disaster!

[WVclimo]

Some great late events for this area from the years Zwyts listed:

1956: MRB had 4" on 3/16 and 6" on 3/18-19

1962: 18" on 3/5-6

1976: 9" on 3/9

1984: 6" on 3/8, 5" on 3/13, and 8" on 3/29

1999: 2" on 3/4, 7.8" on 3/9-10, and 13.6" on 3/13-14

[Deck Pic]

Thanks for the reply Matt. I wish i had the memory you do of past events! I just checked those nina's you mentioned and indeed there were some good events in those years up here in Southern Pa also. The date 2001 sticks out as the March that Could Have Been. Maybe this year we get our revenge on that disaster!

the March storm was an epic miss...I read JB for the 2 weeks leading up to the storm and thought he was a "god" until the bust.....

But the Feb 22nd storm while not huge was a 4-5" all snow event for DC and the eastern burbs and was my biggest of the winter .....That winter was a lot different than this one so probably not a good example, but it was my best event in a very frustrating winter down here

[Feb]

the March storm was an epic miss...I read JB for the 2 weeks leading up to the storm and thought he was a "god" until the bust.....

But the Feb 22nd storm while not huge was a 4-5" all snow event for DC and the eastern burbs and was my biggest of the winter .....That winter was a lot different than this one so probably not a good example, but it was my best event in a very frustrating winter down here

We missed that one up here and of course missed the March 2001 disaster. I , like you followed JB during that lead up to that storm. Of course that storm, or should i say that no storm cost a very famous Philly TV met his job.

[Deck Pic]

This is low probability....probably like 15%, but maybe we sneak something flawed in the next Thu-Sat period before the torch takes hold...It is a longshot as the models aren't very bullish for us, but we can always hope they are wrong....especially on the weak THU/FRI event that goes north of us

[Deck Pic]

We missed that one up here and of course missed the March 2001 disaster. I , like you followed JB during that lead up to that storm. Of course that storm, or should i say that no storm cost a very famous Philly TV met his job.

I don't think you missed it...I'm pretty certain it was a decent snow up there...you just had a much better winter than we did, so it may not have stuck out

[Amped]

I'm so jealous of SNE

[Feb]

I don't think you missed it...I'm pretty certain it was a decent snow up there...you just had a much better winter than we did, so it may not have stuck out

You're right. We had 4.5" of snow. I get this info off of the Millersville College website and the summary for February 2001 showed .36 of liquid for the 22nd but didn't list it as snowfall. When i checked their Snowstorm data it did list 4.5" of snow for February 22nd.

[usedtobe]

I don't think you missed it...I'm pretty certain it was a decent snow up there...you just had a much better winter than we did, so it may not have stuck out

To give people hope even though I thinnk the pattern is aweful and am not making a forecast of a snowstorm as I thinnk one unlikely in the next 10 day to 2 weeks. However, for those grasping at straws in a crappy pattern. 11% of DC's 4 inch or more snowstorms since 150 have come with a negative PNA and positive NAO though usually both were on the weak side.

[Deck Pic]

To give people hope even though I thinnk the pattern is aweful and am not making a forecast of a snowstorm as I thinnk one unlikely in the next 10 day to 2 weeks. However, for those grasping at straws in a crappy pattern. 11% of DC's 4 inch or more snowstorms since 150 have come with a negative PNA and positive NAO though usually both were on the weak side.

to me that suggests that a 1-3" event isn't impossible at some point if we can get some short term cooperation and timing

[usedtobe]

Brad, Somehow you are typing your thoughts in the part the ends up attributing them to me. It's not a big deal except somewhere down the line could fool people. THe stats I sited were for DCA.

[Ian]

I think we give up till Feb and hope for the best in Feb... even though we've already been here.

[usedtobe]

to me that suggests that a 1-3" event isn't impossible at some point if we can get some short term cooperation and timing

If the euro is right at 240 hrs maybe we can pop a pseudo positive PNA look and have a chance after that low goes to the lakels and eventually drags a front by us. The nao at 240 hrs is postive but the AO is not. I've got some nice graphics that I hope Jason will let me post next week in pattern discussion article. Greg will be doing one so Jason might not want oen from me. I've plotted the PNA versus the nao and ao and the nao verus the ao for 4 inch or greater events at DCA.

[Deck Pic]

To give people hope even though I thinnk the pattern is aweful and am not making a forecast of a snowstorm as I thinnk one unlikely in the next 10 day to 2 weeks. However, for those grasping at straws in a crappy pattern. 11% of DC's 4 inch or more snowstorms since 150 have come with a negative PNA and positive NAO though usually both were on the weak side.

I think the 12z Euro actually has a silver lining....The PV is over Greenland at day 10 but has been moving steadily east and heights are rising to the west and throughout canada...maybe this is the beginning of some changes down the road....

[usedtobe]

I think the 12z Euro actually has a silver lining....The PV is over Greenland at day 10 but has been moving steadily east and heights are rising to the west and throughout canada...maybe this is the beginning of some changes down the road....

I thinl it does look better but will wait until it's ens mean shows the same thing.

[Deck Pic]

If the euro is right at 240 hrs maybe we can pop a pseudo positive PNA look and have a chance after that low goes to the lakels and eventually drags a front by us. The nao at 240 hrs is postive but the AO is not. I've got some nice graphics that I hope Jason will let me post next week in pattern discussion article. Greg will be doing one so Jason might not want oen from me. I've plotted the PNA versus the nao and ao and the nao verus the ao for 4 inch or greater events at DCA.

looks like we crossed posts....but yes....any change is good....I agree unless we can get fringed with something next Wed-Sat and that is a longshot, we are probably done until at least the 25th and probably later

[Deck Pic]

I think we give up till Feb and hope for the best in Feb... even though we've already been here.

I think pessismism is warranted, though getting 0.6" for the winter is super rare.....even <4" is pretty hard......I think anything is still on the table though if I was issung a revision, I would put the seasonal over/under at DCA at around 5-8"

[Deck Pic]

I think we give up till Feb and hope for the best in Feb... even though we've already been here.

I wouldn't punt 1/26-31 if we can get another +PNA and we have been getting those....but if I were a betting man right now I would certainly bet no snow for the period vs accumulating snow

[brad1551]

Usedtobe,

I am very sorry for the quote replies, bad mistake by me. I use my IPhone for most replies. The way to reply to someone is totally different from my laptop and iPhone. I was reading everything and just realized what I was

doing. I am pretty new to the sight and I know

now not to hit quote in responding to someones thoughts. Will not happen again. I actually deleted the last one. Sorry you got it. Yes you do have to be careful. Thanks again for the stat. I work full time and go to college full time. Parent to 2 beautiful kids. Believe it or not, I am trying real hard to become a MET and any free time I have I am trying to further my knowledge. This forum has helped me a bunch. I have just learned who you are and I always think the world of your post. I meant no harm and I apologize again.