ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sigh...... I was hoping to hide one important little fact because I was trying for some optimism but I guess I'll go ahead and spill it...... All the -AO Febs are Nino's or pos neutral ENSO..... I am going to cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I am going to cry. Blame Wes. He made me spill the beans. I tried to sugarcoat it as best I could and failed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z Euro says nooooooooope. Way too warm, followed by +20 to +25 temp anomalies next Sat+Sun. Not saying the Euro is not right but they have showed like 3 snowstorms for us in the 8-10 day range and we all know how that worked out. So maybe the GFS is right for once and we have a chance for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Blame Wes. He made me spill the beans. I tried to sugarcoat it as best I could and failed.... Wes needs to start a weenie hope killing thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sigh...... I was hoping to hide one important little fact because I was trying for some optimism but I guess I'll go ahead and spill it...... All the -AO Febs are Nino's or pos neutral ENSO..... I tried to tell you all a week or two ago that the February pattern flips only happen in El Ninos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I tried to tell you all a week or two ago that the February pattern flips only happen in El Ninos... I learned at a very young age not to listen to or remember things that I don't want to hear.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 for February, everyone should just ride the CFS into infernal he!! the worst part is, these kinds of NINA's are followed by cool springs if it's a warm spring and average or cooler summer, I'll survive otherwise, I'm gong to make postal workers look like a psychiatric research control group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 for February, everyone should just ride the CFS into infernal he!! the worst part is, these kinds of NINA's are followed by cool springs if it's a warm spring and average or cooler summer, I'll survive otherwise, I'm gong to make postal workers look like psychiatric research control groups I been pondering that quite a bit. I can already see cutoffs and backdoor cold fronts in april with cloudy/dreary weather and highs in the low 50's. We'll be saying "I wish it was still late January when it was warm.". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I dug up the data and maps from my AO research and figured I would post some of it along with some stats so we can speculate for Feb because Jan is quickly becoming a lost cause barring a fluke or two. The Dec +AO signal this year was ominous. Especially for January prospects. February holds more hope (at least from a statistical standpoint). Here is screen snip from my spreadsheet showing the analog years I used for +AO Decembers: You can see that the odds of a +AO January are pretty high. Out of the 15 years that had a Dec AO index of +.800 or higher, only 1 had a -AO of any consequence and of course that was the winter of 79-80. That winter stands alone for an outright flip after a warm December. Otherwise, Januaries pretty much stink after a strong +AO Dec. Februaries show a little more promise. 6 out of 15 Februaries featured a decent overall -AO and cooler than normal temps. I'm a numbers guy so I always like calculating odds. Using my dataset, there is a 7% chance that January has a -AO and a 40% chance that February does. Pretty much a lock that this Jan will have a +AO so that falls in line with the odds. Hopefully Feb will take advantage of the 40% chance of a -AO and cooler than normal temps. At the bottom of the spread sheet I ran the average monthly AO for the month. You can see that the +AO in December starts strong but then fades from Jan-Mar. Individual years are more choatic but overall, the odds of the AO to be lower each susequent month do increase as time goes by. Of course, temps correspond well with the index but it's nice to visualize the anom maps for the US. Here are the Dec, Jan, & Feb temp maps for the analog years: December 2011 was remarkably similar to the analog map but that should have the closest correlation because December was the baseline month used for selecting the analogs. However, January is looking like it will also end up similar so it will be interesting for comparison once this month is over. Feb looks like the warmest anoms move west and give us the best chance for cooler than normal temps. Hopefully this post instills a little optimism that we can infact potentially salvage a month of winter weather afterall. Odd appear to be slightly against us but I'll take a 40% chance any day over a 7% chance. The real kick in the teeth would be a crappy Feb followed up with the much anticipated flip in mid March when it doesn't do us much good. I have all the daily NAO data to run bar charts for the analog years but I haven't found the time to put it all together. It would be nice if Feb also shows the best chance at some blocking around here. I have a hard time accepting that this entire winter is going to be a complete bust for winter weather but it can happen so I don't have high expectations. I'll post the NAO stuff eventually. Great post. What kind of year was 1988 around here, snow wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This winter or "SPRINTER" winter running for spring at a fast pace. You wait for the snow and guess what? Looks like "SPRINTER" WINS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It's easy to forecast Washington DC weather in January. For example...... Next two days, plentiful wall to wall sunshine with highs in the mid 30s, lows near 17. Followed by milder weather and plentiful wall to wall rain. Flood adzys may be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 HM on accuaweather is covering his words carfully . Pattern change takes time and I know that. But what he said 5 days ago made you believe winter was coming in a vengeance . February is the month he believes winter will finally arrive. I do not believe anymore the accuweather guys. "I BELIEVE WES" VOTE WES THE FORECASTER. NOT ACCUAWEATHER WISHCASTERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 HM on accuaweather is covering his words carfully . Pattern change takes time and I know that. But what he said 5 days ago made you believe winter was coming in a vengeance . February is the month he believes winter will finally arrive. I do not believe anymore the accuweather guys. "I BELIEVE WES" VOTE WES THE FORECASTER. NOT ACCUAWEATHER WISHCASTERS. I'm on the Don Sutherland train. We actually did have a pattern change unfortunately it is going to manifest itself in the pac nw and nrn CA where it has been unsually dry this winter for a nina. That's now changing that's the the giant vortex west of AK. Too bad that same vortex and pac nw firehose pretty much shuts off the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Maybe we aren't completely out of hope. It is going to be cold for the most part of the next week. I guess cold at this point is relative. You never know, we might get lucky and sneak something in, like Monday was. It seemed that the EC ens at least didn't get worse. Looks like from Allans site that the overall temp pattern over the US is a little colder than modeled at 0z, seems to be a tad bit more ridging in the Atl. although its way out there, the ridge near the west coast of Alaska looks to at least have life. I don't know much, but it would seem any buckling would be better than zonal. From reading other posts it would seem that at least some think the long range had a slightly better outlook as they at least leave open possiblities for change near the end of the month. If we could get 6 weeks of winter from the end of Jan to the second week of March as good as the last two months have been bad, I think we'd all call it a decent winter after it was over. Some will call me foolishly optimisitic, and I probably am, but it ain't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I'm on the Don Sutherland train. We actually did have a pattern change unfortunately it is going to manifest itself in the pac nw and nrn CA where it has been unsually dry this winter for a nina. That's now changing that's the the giant vortex west of AK. Too bad that same vortex and pac nw firehose pretty much shuts off the cold air. If we even have a slight chance for a cold air mass it will live in a 24-36hr window. When the precip comes it will always lose with the warm air it brings. If we are real lucky and I mean lucky it looks like the back end of the storms were cold air is pulled in. Usually flurries for most. "SPRINTER" will dominate the rest of our season. SPRINTER: spring and winter fighting a race, to keep winter or go straight to spring. We all know who wins. Sprinter takes the gold by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I tried to tell you all a week or two ago that the February pattern flips only happen in El Ninos... I have found an exception to that rule -- the 1971-72 winter, which also had a positive December Arctic Oscillation signal, as shown in Bob Chill's table. December 1971 was remarkably similar to December 2011, with an average temperature of 45.5 at DCA (vs 45.3 last month) and 0.1 inches of snow. Changes to the Oceanic Nino Index in 4Q 1971 were -1.0 (vs - 0.8 for 4Q 2011); see http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml. January 1972 averaged 38.5 degrees, with no snow until the 27th and 28th, when 0.3 inches fell. However, February 1972 cooled down to an average of 36.5 degrees, and 14.4 inches of snow fell at DCA. Admittedly, this was not a huge temperature flip from January to February, as was 2007, but it did result in quite a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I have found an exception to that rule -- the 1971-72 winter, which also had a positive December Arctic Oscillation signal, as shown in Bob Chill's table. December 1971 was remarkably similar to December 2011, with an average temperature of 45.5 at DCA (vs 45.3 last month) and 0.1 inches of snow. Changes to the Oceanic Nino Index in 4Q 1971 were -1.0 (vs - 0.8 for 4Q 2011); see http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml. January 1972 averaged 38.5 degrees, with no snow until the 27th and 28th, when 0.3 inches fell. However, February 1972 cooled down to an average of 36.5 degrees, and 14.4 inches of snow fell at DCA. Admittedly, this was not a huge temperature flip from January to February, as was 2007, but it did result in quite a bit of snow. This is an interesting find- you're right, I looked at the monthly snow records for BWI too that year and it did turn snowy for February after a (mostly) snowless winter. The ENSO state was similar to this year too- weak 2nd year La Nina, with previous year being moderate. I'm gonna look into this year more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The euro ensembles seemed to try and grab the -NAO signal again. In this case..at d16, the pattern is still to hideous to even accommodate it thanks to PAC jet..but maybe something to watch going into Feb. The AK low also tries to weaken as some very weak ridging moves into the Aleutians. Hopefully this can do something going forward. Of course d16 images are subject to change, and the models may be rushing it...but it's been showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 meh, this torch period coming up is really just the January thaw in a warm, NINA winter it will cool off afterward the question is whether the pattern will repeat or will there be a re-shuffling of the deck wrt the pattern continued weak solar bombardment plus a warming strat may be our only hope to get it cooler or a post thaw reshuffle that's worthwhile for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Brad, Why are you attributing to me this quote, "If we even have a slight chance for a cold air mass it will live in a 24-36hr window. When the precip comes it will always lose with the warm air it brings. If we are real lucky and I mean lucky it looks like the back end of the storms were cold air is pulled in. Usually flurries for most. "SPRINTER" will dominate the rest of our season. SPRINTER: spring and winter fighting a race, to keep winter or go straight to spring. We all know who wins. Sprinter takes the gold by a long shot." You've attributed me to this remark, one I never said it and have no idea what "Sprinter" is or will dominate. Please be careful when you quote someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 lol...everyone needs to take a break from the board. I hate myself right now as who Ive become the past few days. I probably need to send an apology email to JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The euro ensembles seemed to try and grab the -NAO signal again. In this case..at d16, the pattern is still to hideous to even accommodate it thanks to PAC jet..but maybe something to watch going into Feb. The AK low also tries to weaken as some very weak ridging moves into the Aleutians. Hopefully this can do something going forward. Of course d16 images are subject to change, and the models may be rushing it...but it's been showing up. Here is what I mean. You can see a semblance of something trying to form up near the DS..but as you can see...the PAC is still bad. We have to shut off that hose with a little more ridging out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 wes...you should think about taking a break from the board like I am going to try to do and not come back until something shows up interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 wes...you should think about taking a break from the board like I am going to try to do and not come back until something shows up interesting. It's frustrating...nothing even remotely interesting to talk about. We all know how awful it is...I just posted something to perhaps watch going forward, but I wouldn't get excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Here is what I mean. You can see a semblance of something trying to form up near the DS..but as you can see...the PAC is still bad. We have to shut off that hose with a little more ridging out that way. But you need a negative near nova scotia south of the positive or you roast. On that forecast theere still is a positive anomaly that just sort of merges with the positive nomaly farther north. That's still a very warm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 wes...you should think about taking a break from the board like I am going to try to do and not come back until something shows up interesting. Ji: Step back from the ledge. Here are some events to track; three weeks until SuperBowl the final three weeks of February could bring some rare snow to DC Wes goes fishing for a month about six weeks from now. Take a deep breath. We can do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 But you need a negative near nova scotia south of the positive or you roast. On that forecast theere still is a positive anomaly that just sort of merges with the positive nomaly farther north. That's still a very warm look. you need to be more creative Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 if you think Im bad here....nothing compared to what I am like on the Washington Wizards board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 But you need a negative near nova scotia south of the positive or you roast. On that forecast theere still is a positive anomaly that just sort of merges with the positive nomaly farther north. That's still a very warm look. Oh I know....I think I referenced that the whole signal is weak...I only posted it because they were trying to hint at ridging up there and that's about it for now. There is a lot of work to do...I just posted it to watch going forward. Other than that, there isn't anything interesting, so I guess we might as well see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 if you think Im bad here....nothing compared to what I am like on the Washington Wizards board lol Washington has a basketball team? hmm, didn't know that apparently, neither did the Wizards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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