Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Hey I had the day off! While your taking the day off...the models changed our pattern to record heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 While your taking the day off...the models changed our pattern to record heat The record heat switch happened a long time before I took a day off. I think I deserve it after working a week straight and about to work another week overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The record heat switch happened a long time before I took a day off. I think I deserve it after working a week straight and about to work another week overnight. So this abyssmal winter isn't your doing? I thought maybe Ji was onto something... Hope the day off was a good one. See anything down the road to keep hope alive? I've reached the point where I'd just settle for a little sustained cold, flakes or no. Well sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 So this abyssmal winter isn't your doing? I thought maybe Ji was onto something... Hope the day off was a good one. See anything down the road to keep hope alive? I've reached the point where I'd just settle for a little sustained cold, flakes or no. Well sort of. Thanks...I'll try and cook something up to watch and post this weekend about it. Perhaps the "edges" of the torch could offer some hope for something more than a scattered snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z GFS gives us a little front-end dump on Day 8/9 prior to the warm up. Grasping, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I tried and for some reason the pictures won't upload into the space. I had the same problem using Internet Explorer. I used Chrome and it worked fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z GFS gives us a little front-end dump on Day 8/9 prior to the warm up. Grasping, I know. .40 of nasty ice storm for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 .40 of nasty ice storm for IAD I'd say we're due for a nice ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z GFS gives us a little front-end dump on Day 8/9 prior to the warm up. Grasping, I know. I've seen several references to that time period in and around AMwx for a time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I've seen several references to that time period in and around AMwx for a time now. Yea, I've seen alot of day 8/9 snow too. Probably 3 feet so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Every storm is a cutter in one form or another. Very tyoical for a nina,correct?? The northeast will get their fair share while we starve. Every run of the gfs is basically the same. This really isnt going to change much. Plenty of cold air timing is not there this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yea, I've seen alot of day 8/9 snow too. Probably 3 feet so far this winter. you stoled my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The magnitude of the RNA trough out west and how much it retrograded really stinks....it makes it so we probably have to waste another 10 days getting rid of it and even then, if there is a stable vortex over AK, it makes for a very tough pattern. The one faint light of hope is that the NAO looks like it may want to start doing something other than being completely useless...even if its just mild ridging. Pop a transient PNA with it and you can always sneak a storm in there...ala Feb '06 or something like that...but it looks like it would be at least until early February and possibly later until that happens. For the rest of January, I think you just hope that you luck into a system at the right time. This pretty much applies 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This year there appears to be no luck. Even Dt admitts he was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yea, I've seen alot of day 8/9 snow too. Probably 3 feet so far this winter. Not what I meant at all Bob, but thanks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 you stoled my post That a little scary......this board can only handle one Ian like thinker......it's probably scary being inside your head even for an hour.....lol Not what I meant at all Bob, but thanks anyway. Nah, I knew exactly what you meant. Just trying to keep the humor in an otherwise humorless winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I've seen several references to that time period in and around AMwx for a time now. Maybe SNO man will luck out after all. Day 8-9 is his time frame, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Maybe SNO man will luck out after all. Day 8-9 is his time frame, isn't it? It would be nice to have just one minor event to track. Even if it gave us 2 lousy inches followed by some ZR. But I'll bet the Euro will put the nail in that coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 DT actually apologized for being wrong. We ARE in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z GFS gives us a little front-end dump on Day 8/9 prior to the warm up. Grasping, I know. 12z Euro says nooooooooope. Way too warm, followed by +20 to +25 temp anomalies next Sat+Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z Euro says nooooooooope. Way too warm, followed by +20 to +25 temp anomalies next Sat+Sun. Anyone going to New Orleans for AMS..make sure to pack some shorts...weather looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I was wrong about the pattern change. This years winter forecast was wrong from lots of people including me. I try to stay positive but it's hard to when many model runs have gone from warm to real warm. I wrote this earlier and I am taking this as a lesson learned. I hope the flowers and my Azaleas do not bloom earlier and then get a hard freeze. Spring with no flowers and no leaves on the trees will stink. If it gets real warm like some will say, we all will have to pay a price some how. I just wonder what price some might have to pay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I dug up the data and maps from my AO research and figured I would post some of it along with some stats so we can speculate for Feb because Jan is quickly becoming a lost cause barring a fluke or two. The Dec +AO signal this year was ominous. Especially for January prospects. February holds more hope (at least from a statistical standpoint). Here is screen snip from my spreadsheet showing the analog years I used for +AO Decembers: You can see that the odds of a +AO January are pretty high. Out of the 15 years that had a Dec AO index of +.800 or higher, only 1 had a -AO of any consequence and of course that was the winter of 79-80. That winter stands alone for an outright flip after a warm December. Otherwise, Januaries pretty much stink after a strong +AO Dec. Februaries show a little more promise. 6 out of 15 Februaries featured a decent overall -AO and cooler than normal temps. I'm a numbers guy so I always like calculating odds. Using my dataset, there is a 7% chance that January has a -AO and a 40% chance that February does. Pretty much a lock that this Jan will have a +AO so that falls in line with the odds. Hopefully Feb will take advantage of the 40% chance of a -AO and cooler than normal temps. At the bottom of the spread sheet I ran the average monthly AO for the month. You can see that the +AO in December starts strong but then fades from Jan-Mar. Individual years are more choatic but overall, the odds of the AO to be lower each susequent month do increase as time goes by. Of course, temps correspond well with the index but it's nice to visualize the anom maps for the US. Here are the Dec, Jan, & Feb temp maps for the analog years: December 2011 was remarkably similar to the analog map but that should have the closest correlation because December was the baseline month used for selecting the analogs. However, January is looking like it will also end up similar so it will be interesting for comparison once this month is over. Feb looks like the warmest anoms move west and give us the best chance for cooler than normal temps. Hopefully this post instills a little optimism that we can infact potentially salvage a month of winter weather afterall. Odd appear to be slightly against us but I'll take a 40% chance any day over a 7% chance. The real kick in the teeth would be a crappy Feb followed up with the much anticipated flip in mid March when it doesn't do us much good. I have all the daily NAO data to run bar charts for the analog years but I haven't found the time to put it all together. It would be nice if Feb also shows the best chance at some blocking around here. I have a hard time accepting that this entire winter is going to be a complete bust for winter weather but it can happen so I don't have high expectations. I'll post the NAO stuff eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Epic post, Bob I think next month may give us one moderate snow event, but I'll stay cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Bob, It's a good post but it will AO climo will be fighting the la nina climo which actually has its warmest temps relative to normal in Feb. II'm not ready yet to make a feb call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 DT actually apologized for being wrong. We ARE in big trouble. Now that he has said he's wrong we'll get a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Bob, It's a good post but it will AO climo will be fighting the la nina climo which actually has its warmest temps relative to normal in Feb. II'm not ready yet to make a feb call. Sigh...... I was hoping to hide one important little fact because I was trying for some optimism but I guess I'll go ahead and spill it...... All the -AO Febs are Nino's or pos neutral ENSO..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sigh...... I was hoping to hide one important little fact because I was trying for some optimism but I guess I'll go ahead and spill it...... All the -AO Febs are Nino's or pos neutral ENSO..... march will be an epic mud month .. maybe april too if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sigh...... I was hoping to hide one important little fact because I was trying for some optimism but I guess I'll go ahead and spill it...... All the -AO Febs are Nino's or pos neutral ENSO..... Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Epic post, Bob I think next month may give us one moderate snow event, but I'll stay cautiously optimistic. I think so too. It doesn't take a miracle to snow in Feb or a perfect pattern for that matter. I would like to see more snowpack to our north and west though. Canadian airmasses can modify quicky when they travel across a thousand miles of dirt and grass. I don't think we're going to see any polar air this winter but what the heck do I know. We'll probably end up above average in Feb temp wise but that's not a big deal. Just give us a damn storm that gives us enough snow to sled on. My youngest twins are bumming this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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