BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:31 PM, zwyts said: I recorded only 0.25" but it was a "high" impact event given that number..it was pretty nasty..That was a nice event I liked it too, the roads were horrible though. McArthur Blvd had a mini pile-up on the decline where everyone who tried it ended up spinning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:35 PM, usedtobe said: I'll be doing a CWG piece on the storm later today so I won't post my thoughts here yet. It's something to post about. Yay Better be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:37 PM, zwyts said: sometimes these events can be fun even if they don't snarl traffic or cause massive power outages.....1/17/11 was ideal since it started early PM, but even a midnight start would give us some time to check sh-it out....me and you probably wake up to 34 and drizzle but there could be surprises out west.....CAD is the only winter thing we do well...we suck at everything else winter related If it's going to ice storm, I want power outages, footage of cars sliding down hills and sideswiping guard rails, flight cancellations and disruptions to plans all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GFS through 27 a smidge colder at the 850 level when you compare it to the 06z at 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:39 PM, H2O said: Double date with you/Al, Matt/Rosie? If that's what it takes to get an inch or two of snow followed by glaze cap, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:34 PM, zwyts said: nice air mass...IAD hit 16 this morning and I think we get a reinforcing shot tomorrow..... Keep northerly winds right up to the onset of precip and it will be tough to scour out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:45 PM, yoda said: 12z GFS through 27 a smidge colder at the 850 level Yoda, only post if it's good news. Otherwise, you will just infuriate me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:46 PM, stormtracker said: Yoda, only post if it's good news. Otherwise, you will just infuriate me. Understood Ms. Roker 12z GFS at 33 has 850 0c line nearby RIC... 06z was by EZF (hr 39 to compare) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:47 PM, yoda said: Understood Ms. Roker 12z GFS at 33 has 850 0c line nearby RIC... 06z was by EZF (hr 39 to compare) Already above freezing by 03z at 800mb (DCA/IAD south). Precip not even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:51 PM, MN Transplant said: Already above freezing by 03z at 800mb (DCA/IAD south). Precip not even here. Ice ice baby? CAD more pronounced on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:51 PM, yoda said: Ice ice baby? Interestingly, a little subzero spot shows back up at 06z. Column cooling with precip even at the GFS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Northern Maryland looks good through 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12Z GFS with slightly more snow than the NAM at the onset for here. Measurable QPF sneaking in before 03Z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wouldn't take much.... Hate the snow is so close but I'll take whatever at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 N VA still below freezing (barely -- prob 30-32) at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:54 PM, MN Transplant said: Northern Maryland looks good through 9z. Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z GFS screams ZR down this way, less in the way of snow than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DCA prob flirting with freezing or just above at 12z... Just N and W still below... def colder than 06z N and C MD still below freezing at 15z.. all of VA at or above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks better, but I'm going to use the "CAD is underforecast" method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Borderline WSW event for me and Wxtrix on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT for BWI 120121/0700Z 43 12007KT 30.2F SNPL 120121/0800Z 44 11007KT 30.0F SNPL 120121/0900Z 45 11007KT 30.9F FZRA 120121/1000Z 46 10007KT 31.5F FZRA 120121/1100Z 47 09006KT 32.2F RAIN 20121/1200Z 48 08004KT 32.5F RAIN 120121/1300Z 49 05003KT 32.9F 120121/1400Z 50 01003KT 33.4F 120121/1500Z 51 01004KT 34.0F 120121/1600Z 52 01003KT 33.6F RAIN 120121/1700Z 53 36003KT 33.3F RAIN 120121/1800Z 54 35004KT 33.6F RAIN 120121/1900Z 55 35004KT 34.5F RAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:58 PM, yoda said: DCA prob flirting with freezing or just above at 12z... Just N and W still below... def colder than 06z N and C MD still below freezing at 15z.. all of VA at or above 32 it's gonna be close but, yes, NW burbs look best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 1000-850 sub-132 for DC-north the whole event this run. Ends as FZRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 3:58 PM, stormtracker said: Looks better, but I'm going to use the "CAD is underforecast" method. Even though we tag it as a weenie phrase most of the time it's true more often than not. Especially when we are right in the transition fringe on the models. IIRC we almost always end up colder at the surface by a degree or 2. 850's on up though don't vary as much. Still, we're on the fringe of the type of event that almost always gives us more wintry precip than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looking better and better for more snow around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:02 PM, Scuddz said: 1000-850 sub-132 for DC-north the whole event this run. Ends as FZRA? How do you use that map correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 2:57 PM, BethesdaWX said: Thanks. Flow seems to have more of a SE component though? I thought the SE flow was what allowed damming against the mtns? http://raleighwx.ame...mpsNAMLoop.html Correct me if I'm wrong. I didn't see SW winds, but my eyes suck pretty bad. You're right... I had switched over to the 06z GFS sounding and forgot that I was looking at that and not the 12z NAM when writing the post. The decoupling thing still stands, but obviously it would be less dramatic with an easterly component at the surface versus a westerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 On 1/19/2012 at 4:03 PM, Bob Chill said: Even though we tag it as a weenie phrase most of the time it's true more often than not. Especially when we are right in the transition fringe on the models. IIRC we almost always end up colder at the surface by a degree or 2. 850's on up though don't vary as much. Still, we're on the fringe of the type of event that almost always gives us more wintry precip than modeled. plus the low is uber weak at this pt.. not even closing isobars on the ncep maps except briefly on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I've always liked this look @ 2m (hr 42gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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