WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 NAM and Euro continue to show the Apps eating up all the snow early Friday. 6z GFS still had some flurries making it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:49 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. So you are assuming the 12z runs today are the final solution AND you are extrapolating the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 No, 84hr NAM does not look good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:49 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. Pretty sure we don't want Minneapolis getting a half foot of snow like the 12z NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:45 PM, WxUSAF said: NAM and Euro continue to show the Apps eating up all the snow early Friday. 6z GFS still had some flurries making it over the mountains. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Time to invoke weenie rule 431: Throw out the NAM past 48hr if it doesn't show what you want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:53 PM, MN Transplant said: Pretty sure we don't want Minneapolis getting a half foot of snow like the 12z NAM shows. They are due. It has been warm up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 12:47 PM, mitchnick said: we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple Amen, He likes to follow his hero around from up there. What he sees, he has to do too. it is old and pretty dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:52 PM, WxUSAF said: No, 84hr NAM does not look good for us. I still think our fate rests with what happens to the first clipper and the models aren't in agreement with that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 randy i moved the google sheet posts over to the banter thread so we won't derail this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:30 PM, zwyts said: it is a very progressive zonal flow...models are going to be all over the place.....I'd like to see some model agreement, but I will go with the euro for now and if it takes it away in 2 hours so be it....The NAM is useless at 84 hours.... Well according to Winterwxluvr, the 12z runs are the final solution, so we better hope the GFS and Euro show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 12:47 PM, mitchnick said: we have separate forums for a reason take a minute to think about why before posting in the future it's real simple On 1/17/2012 at 2:00 PM, zwyts said: wrong forum a-sshole On 1/17/2012 at 3:05 PM, Aviationdave said: Amen, He likes to follow his hero around from up there. What he sees, he has to do too. it is old and pretty dumb. LOL...sorry guys. Just joking around. Of course everyone wants what model shows the most snow...it was a joke. If I can't get anything out of this storm...hope you guys get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:32 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said: randy i moved the google sheet posts over to the banter thread so we won't derail this thread Ok, no prob 12z GFS will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:57 PM, WxUSAF said: Time to invoke weenie rule 431: Throw out the NAM past 48hr if it doesn't show what you want it to. At the same time, any time weenies gets EXCITED about the NAM past 48 hours, people are pretty quick to remind them how useless the NAM is in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:34 PM, stormtracker said: Ok, no prob 12z GFS will be telling yea telling me to find a new %$^&*## hobby this winter blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:37 PM, zwyts said: there is no strategy involved...the NAM is a bad model at day 3....I think people just look at it because it is there.... Matt, how much snow did the euro give us? I haven't had time to look as I was writing my CWG piece on the -PNA and what it might mean to the country and to our snow chances. It has cool scatter diagram (shameless plug). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:49 PM, usedtobe said: Matt, how much snow did the euro give us? I haven't had time to look as I was writing my CWG piece on the -PNA and what it might mean to the country and to our snow chances. It has cool scatter diagram (shameless plug). I think it was 1-3"... Zwyts or Ji can confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 JI said DCA got .24 and it was all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:51 PM, ravensrule said: JI said DCA got .24 and it was all snow Thanks Raven, Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS also has the Apps eat up whatever snow there is late Thurs night into Fri morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:03 PM, yoda said: 12z GFS also has the Apps eat up whatever snow there is late Thurs night into Fri morning shows a little green over me at 03z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS also would appear to imply that we don't get above freezing Friday as 2m temps are below 0c at 21z EZF north Definite CAD signal at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 well, have to admit that the 12Z GFS fits the pattern of the season no "real" snow for the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:11 PM, mapgirl said: not looking good nope. definitely not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 CAD gets washed out per 12z. i wish that high to the north could stay put more but i know there is nothing there to hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:14 PM, H2O said: CAD gets washed out per 12z. i wish that high to the north could stay put more but i know there is nothing there to hold it. I am not sure we would want it to... if it did hold, we would be fooked ice storm wise (note the 102 and 105 hr QPF). S PA on THIS RUN gets nasty ice VERBATIM. The 0c 850 retreats north and the 0c 2m line slowly retreats... we probably have light icing (mainly west) to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:33 PM, mapgirl said: Well according to Winterwxluvr, the 12z runs are the final solution, so we better hope the GFS and Euro show the same thing. Just being a smart ass? Or just can't read? On 1/17/2012 at 2:49 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I know the saying that "such and such model runs will be huge" but I do think we will have a pretty good idea after today's 12 z run. And, I admit, I won't jump either way until the Euro run comes out. Edit: And I realize that nobody puts faith in the NAM at long range, but even so, I'd think you couldn't like the way it looks for Friday evening. On 1/17/2012 at 4:11 PM, mapgirl said: not looking good On 1/17/2012 at 4:13 PM, mapgirl said: nope. definitely not good. So why do you care what today's 12z runs show? If the Euro comes in with no snow, keep hoping. Let me know how that works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:21 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Just being a smart ass? Or just can't read? So why do you care what today's 12z runs show? If the Euro comes in with no snow, keep hoping. Let me know how that works out for you. I can read just fine, thank you. You said the 12z runs today would be final, so the GFS gives us no snow. Let's see what Euro does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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