bluewave Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The models are forecasting a low to rapidly intensify as it passes north of our area on Friday. At a minimum there is a good chance at seeing fairly widespread wind gusts in the CAA behind the storm of 40-50 mph. While it's still two days away, there is the potential for even stronger wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range especially from the NYC airports out east across Long Island. When we get CAA on a SW to WSW flow wind gust potential goes up especially on Long Island as the wind passes over the mild ocean waters. The water temperatures are running well above normal now in the upper 40's. This would help steepen the low level lapse rates and help mix stronger winds down to the surface. We'll have to watch the model trends tomorrow to see if the potential is more wind advisory or high wind warning especially the further east that you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Great post. I just briefly examined the 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Looks like the mixed layer reaches up all the way to around 850 hPa Friday afternoon, where the winds are 40-50 kts. BUFKIT is showing the momentum transfer of nearly 40 kts across the region out of the WSW. I imagine wind advisories will be issued, as you've said. The 06Z GFS also agrees on 40 kts mixing down to the surface behind the front. Yellow is mixed layer height, orange is momentum transfer wind direction, and green is momentum transfer speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Great post. I just briefly examined the 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Looks like the mixed layer reaches up all the way to around 850 hPa Friday afternoon, where the winds are 40-50 kts. BUFKIT is showing the momentum transfer of nearly 40 kts across the region out of the WSW. I imagine wind advisories will be issued, as you've said. The 06Z GFS also agrees on 40 kts mixing down to the surface behind the front. Yellow is mixed layer height, orange is momentum transfer wind direction, and green is momentum transfer speed. Thanks for posting that information. We'll have to watch the guidance that comes in tomorrow to see if some of the higher end wind potential looks more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 12z GFS Bufkit showed potential wind gusts up near 55mph over ISP and OKX, late friday afternoon. I imagine a high wind watch could issued be by tomorrow for parts of LI, if that still existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So everyone is talking about the post frontal wind potential and the current wind advisory for only Suffolk is in regards to the pre frontal east winds correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So everyone is talking about the post frontal wind potential and the current wind advisory for only Suffolk is in regards to the pre frontal east winds correct? Looks like it, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wind potential from the latest NAM run on Friday afternoon - I don't remember the last time the NAM showed 10m winds this strong so far this season: The NAM as well as the rest of the models are also showing a tight pressure gradient on Friday afternoon and evening. The ingredients are there for a significant wind event, and I agree with bluewave, wind gusts could easily end up at 50+ mph out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 It looks like we should see a strong burst of winds right along the very sharp cold front early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Do we still have a good chance at high winds tomarow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Do we still have a good chance at high winds tomarow afternoon? After the initial pulse of stronger winds early, we'll continue with very windy conditions throughout the day in the strong CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Upton's now catching up to the full potential of the wind event... upped wind gusts to the 45-50 mph range across most of the area while adding a widespread wind advisory. They have gusts up to 49 mph in NYC: Friday: A chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Windy, with a west wind between 23 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. At this time, it appears that NYC and Long Island will be the most likely to see wind gusts within the 50-60 mph range, and it is very possible that parts of Long Island could reach high wind watch/warning criteria in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Gusting to 51 mph at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think the 51mph wind gust at Newark, was with a passing shower. Most wind gust with passage front have been under 35mph. Strongest winds, for more of the area come later this afternoon. I think they will be mostly in 40-50mph range, based on the slightly weaker LLJ 6z GFS and more so NAM Bufkit are showing. So I don't think we'll see high wind warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Nice thread, and I agree with the discussion here. The areas you highlighted - especially NYC proper and probably the EWR area as well - could definitely approach warning criteria today. I think the peak gusts will come up a bit short (maybe in the range of 55 mph at EWR/LGA/JFK), but that still makes for an impressive wind event. It's also by far the most significant wind event of the season thus far. There are some similarities to 2/12/09, a W flow High Wind Warning event that delievered in a big away across the entire area. The gradient looks just a touch weaker this time, and the 850 mb winds are maybe 5-10 mph lower during the forecasted peak of the event. Still, though, the setup is similar and it's not a bad analog for this storm. WSW wind events like this are a lot less common than WNW/NW events, so it'll be interesting to see if that small difference in direction means a bit more limb/tree damage than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yeah I remember that event well. There were several people injured or killed by falling trees. Nice thread, and I agree with the discussion here. The areas you highlighted - especially NYC proper and probably the EWR area as well - could definitely approach warning criteria today. I think the peak gusts will come up a bit short (maybe in the range of 55 mph at EWR/LGA/JFK), but that still makes for an impressive wind event. It's also by far the most significant wind event of the season thus far. There are some similarities to 2/12/09, a W flow High Wind Warning event that delievered in a big away across the entire area. The gradient looks just a touch weaker this time, and the 850 mb winds are maybe 5-10 mph lower during the forecasted peak of the event. Still, though, the setup is similar and it's not a bad analog for this storm. WSW wind events like this are a lot less common than WNW/NW events, so it'll be interesting to see if that small difference in direction means a bit more limb/tree damage than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Winds picking up big time here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Brooklyn: BQE at Metropolitan Ave Hugh. Billboard came down due to the high winds and resting on the expressway, Highway is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Billboard collapse on the BQE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I recorded a 38mph on my weather station here in Monmouth County. Raised my anemometer back in October up to 28ft, and have definitely noticed a difference. Pretty much in line w/ KBLM top gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Holy crap at the 4pm OB at EWR NEWARK/LIBERTY FLURRIES 31 16 54 W40G52 29.60R WCI 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Holy crap at the 4pm OB at EWR NEWARK/LIBERTY FLURRIES 31 16 54 W40G52 29.60R WCI 14 Light snow and windy 52mph gust - now that's a helluva weather ob to read before hitting the runway in a plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Highest wind gusts are in the last few hours. LGA 46mph, Newark and JFK 52mph. The LSR has even higher gust near the shore PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 458 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1045 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW SANDS POINT 40.88N 73.73W 01/13/2012 M60 MPH ANZ335 NY BUOY MESONET 0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 41.20N 72.12W 01/13/2012 M58 MPH SUFFOLK NY COAST GUARD COASTGUARD 0329 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BAYVILLE 40.91N 73.56W 01/13/2012 M58 MPH NASSAU NY COAST GUARD COASTGUARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 520 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ***********************PEAK WIND GUST*********************** LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS GUST OF MPH MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...ANZ330... 1 ESE NEPTUNE PARK 62 255 PM 1/13 MESONET-ELEVATION 67 FT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 45 204 PM 1/13 ASOS DANBURY AIRPORT 41 110 PM 1/13 ASOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... EAST HAVEN 56 957 AM 1/13 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH END 47 129 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD NEW HAVEN 39 113 PM 1/13 ASOS MERIDEN 33 217 PM 1/13 ASOS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON 55 246 PM 1/13 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... TETERBORO 43 1226 PM 1/13 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 52 351 PM 1/13 ASOS CALDWELL AIRPORT 36 258 PM 1/13 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... JERSEY CITY 53 645 AM 1/13 TRAINED SPOTTER BAYONNE 42 643 AM 1/13 TRAINED SPOTTER NEW YORK ...ANZ330... BUOY 44039 56 945 AM 1/13 MESONET BUOY 44060 50 300 PM 1/13 MESONET ...ANZ335... 2 NW SANDS POINT 60 1045 AM 1/13 MESONET BUOY 44040 45 119 PM 1/13 MESONET ...ANZ355... BUOY 44065 47 1250 PM 1/13 MESONET ...ANZ370... BUOY 44025 52 950 AM 1/13 MESONET ...NASSAU COUNTY... BAYVILLE 58 329 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD OYSTER BAY 49 145 PM 1/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER 1 E POINT LOOKOUT 48 200 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD KINGS POINT 43 1230 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 36 111 PM 1/13 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... MONTGOMERY 39 307 PM 1/13 ASOS ...QUEENS COUNTY... KENNEDY AIRPORT 52 259 PM 1/13 ASOS BREEZY POINT 45 305 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD NYC/LA GUARDIA 44 158 PM 1/13 ASOS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 58 253 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD FIRE ISLAND 52 245 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD MECOX 51 1135 AM 1/13 COASTGUARD PATCHOGUE 50 150 PM 1/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER EATONS NECK 50 120 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD EAST MORICHES 49 1100 AM 1/13 MESONET NORTH BABYLON 48 1245 PM 1/13 SKYWARN SPOTTER AMITY HARBOR 48 736 AM 1/13 COASTGUARD ISLIP AIRPORT 48 152 PM 1/13 ASOS EAST HAMPTON 48 425 PM 1/13 ASOS SHIRLEY AIRPORT 46 141 PM 1/13 ASOS WESTHAMPTON 45 244 PM 1/13 ASOS MONTAUK 44 1123 AM 1/13 ASOS EAST FARMINGDALE 44 139 PM 1/13 ASOS MONTAUK POINT 44 1123 AM 1/13 ASOS BLUE POINT 44 244 PM 1/13 COASTGUARD NAPEAGUE 43 1054 AM 1/13 COASTGUARD ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS 45 117 PM 1/13 ASOS ***********************SUSTAINED WIND*********************** LOCATION WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS SPEED OF MPH MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 32 1237 PM 1/13 ASOS ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON 38 240 PM 1/13 ASOS NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... TETERBORO 32 1227 PM 1/13 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 41 352 PM 1/13 ASOS NEW YORK ...QUEENS COUNTY... KENNEDY AIRPORT 40 300 PM 1/13 ASOS NYC/LA GUARDIA 32 157 PM 1/13 ASOS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ISLIP AIRPORT 36 148 PM 1/13 ASOS WESTHAMPTON 35 110 PM 1/13 ASOS EAST FARMINGDALE 32 218 PM 1/13 ASOS SHIRLEY AIRPORT 32 142 PM 1/13 ASOS $$ ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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