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Thursday Storm Observation Thread 1/12


dryslot

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Tracking the western extent of the snow... Snow in Halcott now in the central Catskills...about 40 miles west of the Hudson River.

That is good..the RUC 1 hour forecast had you rain right now and the 06z NAM was just flipping you over...maybe another 30 minutes on the NAM. So anything you keep getting is def a good sign.

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I wonder how much of the precip at BDL is falling as snow...34/32F there and until the warmer air aloft works in if they are mostly snow right now they could stay that way for a while...sfc temp not really increasing anytime soon and the dewpoint isn't going to really rise anymore. All they need is 0.3'' and that will guarantee Jan will not be the least snowiest Jan on record.

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WAA cancelled for northern CT and southern MA

...A WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE TO

THE INTERIOR TODAY...

CTZ002-MAZ005-006-010>012-121015-

/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120112T1800Z/

HARTFORD CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...FRAMINGHAM...

LOWELL...LAWRENCE...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...

MILFORD...WORCESTER

408 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...HAMPDEN COUNTY AS WELL

AS S EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...ESSEX AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTIES IN

MASSACHUSETTS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TO RISE. ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE

OF HOURS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW

ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

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Bit of both, kind of fluctuating here. Mostly waterlogged. I doubt I add anything more than a tenth.

Well its good you are still producing flakes at a time after 09z...the Euro was the only model that showed an inch or so for you and Kevin.

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WAA cancelled for northern CT and southern MA

Yeah I think the ice threat is diminishing...we just aren't advecting enough lower dews from the NE...although ORH has gone to a 050 wind. But even N ORH county I think struggles to produce significant icing. This is mostly about the front end snow thump now.

Maybe some marginal icing, but I have a hard time seeing big icing.

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Yeah I think the ice threat is diminishing...we just aren't advecting enough lower dews from the NE...although ORH has gone to a 050 wind. But even N ORH county I think struggles to produce significant icing. This is mostly about the front end snow thump now.

Maybe some marginal icing, but I have a hard time seeing big icing.

Yeah I think the icing threat has gone down big time and even so...I really wasn't expecting any major icing anywhere...at least enough to cause any issues. Seems like any transition will be rather quick and right from snow to rain.

BOX still saying a 1/10th of an inch ice accretion still possible where they have continued the WAA so can't completely rule anything out but everything seems to be leaning away from that right now.

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Yeah I think the icing threat has gone down big time and even so...I really wasn't expecting any major icing anywhere...at least enough to cause any issues. Seems like any transition will be rather quick and right from snow to rain.

BOX still saying a 1/10th of an inch ice accretion still possible where they have continued the WAA so can't completely rule anything out but everything seems to be leaning away from that right now.

The advisory is still warranted for N ORH county and into S NH though since I think even without much icing, they have a shot at advisory criteria snow...esp since down by Hartford is still snowing in the higher terrain.

The icing threat is not zero though for the northern areas...if they find a way to hold steady at 31 with good NE flow, then it could add to the hazard...but I think the icing is generally more nuisance if it happens. I've never been totally high on the icing threat for this since about 24 hours ago...the 12z Euro looked intriguing, but it was still marginal...it was decent icing, but marginal.

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You can see the flow is now predominately NE in the interior...but I think it may have happened too late...we'll see. But I think its too late for icing after the snow flip...ORH is now 30/30...but has been a 050/060 wind. You can see the flow down the Maine coastline...but if icing is going to be an issue at 31F or so, then you need that to keep advecting into S NH and N MA....and not sure that connection has been established enough if at all.

2012011209metarsalb.gif

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The advisory is still warranted for N ORH county and into S NH though since I think even without much icing, they have a shot at advisory criteria snow...esp since down by Hartford is still snowing in the higher terrain.

The icing threat is not zero though for the northern areas...if they find a way to hold steady at 31 with good NE flow, then it could add to the hazard...but I think the icing is generally more nuisance if it happens. I've never been totally high on the icing threat for this since about 24 hours ago...the 12z Euro looked intriguing, but it was still marginal...it was decent icing, but marginal.

Those areas certainly still have a shot to see a solid 2-3''...maybe a few isolated 4'' amounts for snowfall...especially if some spots in CT were able to pick up 1-1.5'' or so. The WAA at 925/850 has slowed quite a bit over the past several hours.

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37.4 here with rain. Looks like euro may be right with mid level temps for now.

It looks like the Euro absolutely schooled the NAM and SREFs on ML temps. Sfc temps are another story, though the Euro was never overly cold, but it looks like it was too cold nonetheless.

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