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Thursday Storm Observation Thread 1/12


dryslot

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Well, school should have been cancelled today IMO. Roads were a disaster this morning and since they never plowed the 2-3" they are now a slushy disaster and just as dangeroud. Not sure what my total was, but I had 1.2" when I left at 8am...the high school looked to have about 2.5" when I got there at 8:10...I think they ended up with 3.5" or so so maybe 2.5" here? I see PNS has Shrewsbury at 3.3". I'll look into it a bit more to decide on a total. Either way, a definite over achiever as it didn't changeover to rain until almost 10am! It snowed longer then rain.

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Returns are much more showery off to my SW, But the stuff moving up from boston looks like its going to move thre here, The models had showed some of this for my area so we shall see

I've been watching those too. Wondering how long we can hold on to the cold air here at the coast. Temp has inched up a degree or two over the past 90 minutes. Playing with house money for sure.

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I've been watching those too. Wondering how long we can hold on to the cold air here at the coast. Temp has inched up a degree or two over the past 90 minutes. Playing with house money for sure.

Happy poster today, You came away from this much better then you envisioned yesterday, Being close the cold source is usually a good thing for us here..

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I would like to know why the NAM and SREFs were so warm. For a model that is supposed to be cold until the last minute....bad fail. I don't think anyone antcipated some of the snow amounts down here closer to the borderline areas...but we did say the euro hinted at some good amounts..I know I said it once or twice..but having the other guidance in disagreement so close to starting time, was concerning. Even so, the NAM and SREFs were out to lunch..especially here. They seemed to do a better job up north..just not around here.

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I would like to know why the NAM and SREFs were so warm. For a model that is supposed to be cold until the last minute....bad fail. I don't think anyone antcipated some of the snow amounts down here closer to the borderline areas...but we did say the euro hinted at some good amounts..I know I said it once or twice..but having the other guidance in disagreement so close to starting time, was concerning. Even so, the NAM and SREFs were out to lunch..especially here. They seemed to do a better job up north..just not around here.

They seemed to overplay the warm layer and the qpf, But the qpf is what it does anyways, I have found in the last few storms here that the Euro's qpf output has been close to what we have received, GFS and Euro had 1.00" qpf here, Nam was 1.25" +, I will take a core sample and melt it when i get home to see what we have for liquid and ratios

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Happy poster today, You came away from this much better then you envisioned yesterday, Being close the cold source is usually a good thing for us here..

Absolutely. Similar to what Jayhawk said earlier, I fully expected a sloppy mess here at the coast today -- especially in town. It's nice to see and hear the plows again -- and, of course, to actually have snow.

Intensity picking up for what looks like the grand finale....

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They seemed to overplay the warm layer and the qpf, But the qpf is what it does anyways, I have found in the last few storms here that the Euro's qpf output has been close to what we have received, GFS and Euro had 1.00" qpf here, Nam was 1.25" +, I will take a core sample and melt it when i get home to see what we have for liquid and ratios

NAM is always too juicy. Even if it's cold, it still is juicy, but it really blew the thermal profile.

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Yeah tough to go bullish in SWFE because the DS or rather disorganized QPF always flies in pretty quick. People last Feb 2 learned that the ahrd way..lol. Some OCMs had 12-24" when that clearly was not going to happen...especially with a 700 low going nw of you.

I'm still mystified by that....met 101 tells you that you need CCB\Deformation action to synoptically see over 1'...aside from mesoscale nuances.

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NAM is always too juicy. Even if it's cold, it still is juicy, but it really blew the thermal profile.

Yeah i noted that, Take a 1/3 off is a good rule, It would be interseting if you could find out what it saw with the thermal profile that the others did not to skew it.

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LOL, I think Will has like ~24 for the season and I have ~12 not too far away. He got 17" between the two storms in October when I got 10"...and he capitalized on a few events in December with 1 or 2" totals here and there. Then he got 4-5" today when I got 2.5".

Elevation FTW

Yeah but even you got more than I thought he would get...lol.

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LOL, I think Will has like ~24 for the season and I have ~12 not too far away. He got 17" between the two storms in October when I got 10"...and he capitalized on a few events in December with 1 or 2" totals here and there. Then he got 4-5" today when I got 2.5".

Elevation FTW

Garbage winters are almost always elevation dependant...barring a fluke.

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I'm still mystified by that....met 101 tells you that you need CCB\Deformation action to synoptically see over 1'...aside from mesoscale nuances.

Only thing was that the storm was going to really tap into Gulf moisture, so we were going to have this loaded airmass on isentropic ascent over the region, which explains the QPF bombs in the model guidance.

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Yeah but even you got more than I thought he would get...lol.

Oh, I know...I'll deffinitely take 2.5" and run. Yesterday I was nervous I may not see any snow...after I saw saw the nam.

Garbage winters are almost always elevation dependant...barring a fluke.

Yeah...it still amazes me that he only averages 7" more then me though. I know its only 2 years of sample but the past 2 years its gone:

09-10

Will: 69"

me: 57"

10-11

me: 88"

will: 98"

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Yeah i noted that, Take a 1/3 off is a good rule, It would be interseting if you could find out what it saw with the thermal profile that the others did not to skew it.

I'll tell you part of the problem....meso scale models can be great, and they can suck. They are run at a finer resolution, so any false depiction of a feature and the errors can really cause problems. So if the model was off with lift, or it progged the dynamics as rather diffuse and disorganized, it may have caused too much warming.

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